Ohio State pieces together another dominant performance Saturday against an overmatched Illinois team. The Buckeyes are off to a 4-0 starts this season, winning by an average of 34.7 points/game. The Fighting Illini are in rebuilding mode, while the Buckeyes are a serious national title contender. Illinois has lost seven in a row at home to Ohio State since its last win in 1991. The Illini have also dropped seven straight to ranked opponents since beating the Buckeyes, including last season’s 30-0 defeat in Columbus. Illinois cannot throw the football, completing just 52.5% of their passes for 130 yards per game. The Illini are averaging 229 yards rushing per game, but that plays right into Ohio State’s hands. The Buckeyes are allowing just 70 rushing yards/game and 2.6 yards/carry this season. When Illinois gets behind, they won’t be able to come back because of their inability to throw the football. The Buckeyes roll for four quarters. Take Ohio State and lay the points.
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This line is very inflated due to two main reasons. First, everyone has seen both teams light up the scoreboard this season, especially Oregon which has the #1 ranked offense in the country. Second, last season’s game was very high scoring and both teams combined for over 90 points. However, Stanford’s defense is vastly improved this season and held Notre Dame’s offense in check for the entire game last week. That performance shows that they are able to contain better offenses. Meanwhile, Stanford, while being high scoring this season, mainly uses shorter passes and running the ball on offense. That style of play uses up more clock and shortens the game. Also, this game is one of the marquee games on Saturday, so both teams will play a little more nervous and will be more focused on defense. These big featured games usually feature lower scoring anyway. Oregon’s offense struggled somewhat against Tennessee initially too before breaking out in the 2nd half. However, they still only put up 47 points against them, and I think that Stanford has a vastly better defense. Look for this game to fall under the inflated total.
Ryan has posted a 14-5 record for 74% winners over the past three months with his MLB Titan Totals. This Game of the week graded play is also reinforced by his comprehensive research featuring a proven system and several game situations combining for a 36-5 mark w/1 hitting 90% winners.
5* graded play on Penn State as they take on Iowa set to start at 8:05 EST and will be televised by ESPN and on the internet at ESPN3. Over my 17 years of sports handicapping I have developed a tiered approach for my bankroll management. The plays are graded 3*, 5*, 7*, 10*, 15*, and top rated 25* plays.
I like Penn State in this matchup for a wide array of reasons and see them with a solid opportunity for a straight up win. Here is a supporting money line system that has produced a 33-13 record for 72% winners since 2005. Play on a road team using the money line with an excellent defense allowing 285 or less total yards per game and after out gaining opponents by 175 or more total yards in two consecutive games.
Penn State (3-1, 1-2 ATS) travels to their new Big-10 nemesis Iowa (3-1, 1-2 ATS). Penn State has played a far tougher schedule than Iowa has to date. They have played at number one Alabama losing 24-3 and were installed as 14 point dogs. They have also played a vastly under rated squad from Philadelphia in Temple. Iowa has played three teams that offer no competitive measure whatsoever in Eastern Illinois, Iowa State, and Ball State, who they defeated 45-0 last week as 28 point favorites. The only real measure was Game 3 at Arizona, who they lost too 34-27 installed as 2 1/2 point dogs.
In the three games against inferior opponents Iowa averaged 237 rushing yards per game. Against Arizona they rushed for 29 yards on 26 carries. Penn State will be able to stop the run and then get pressure on Iowa senior quarterback Ricky Stanzi, who has a history of forcing balls into coverage when pressured. He may be 21-5 as a starter, but he has thrown 25 interceptions too. I strongly believe that Penn State will get the timely turnovers necessary to win this game.
The most favorable matchup for PSU is in the passing game and true freshman Robert Bolden. Iowa is going to concern themselves with the run first and will have their defensive ends playing run and clogging seams. This will open up play action pass immediately at the start of the game and Penn State will have some deep out patterns to wide receivers and routes to the tight end down the middle.
Bolden also led Penn State on a fourth-quarter 96 yard scoring drive against Temple and those are the drives that become the foundation for greatness. He converted two, third pass plays, and was three for four for 59 yards during the drive. Quarterback coach Jay Paterno has loosened up the offense and Bolden is now free to be, as he stated, “a game changer as opposed to a game manager”. Bolden will have a great game and will limit his mistakes. Penn State will cover. Consider adding a 3* amount using the generous money line as well.
Ryan pushed with Texas A&M Last night and is on an 80% ATS winning run with his 15* Titan releases. He easily won last Friday’s 10* Titan on Nevada. This play comes with Ryan’s comprehensive research featuring a proven system and several game situations with one hitting 89% ATS winners.
Kentucky just can’t beat Florida. Counting last week’s 48-14 whipping in The Swamp, the Wildcats have now dropped 24 straight to the Gators. UK first-year head coach Joker Phillips said his team addressed the blemish, learned from it and they’re ready to move forward.
Even though the Blue Grass Cats haven’t tasted a victory in Oxford since 1978, Kentucky has enough talent on both sides of the ball to defeat this erratic Mississippi bunch. The Rebels started out the season with a shocking home loss to Jacksonville State and then rebounded with a win at Tulane. Ole Miss returned home after that and got shocked by Vanderbilt before knocking off Fresno State last Saturday.
Technically speaking, this is not the spot for Houston Nutt’s troops. Since 1988, Mississippi has been at its worst inside Vaught-Hemingway Stadium matched up against a foe that checks in without momentum off a SU and ATS loss posting a horrendous 6-26 ATS record. In this role tackling an opponent that got crushed by 17 points or more last, this team trend crashes to a miserable 2-18 ATS!
Offensively, UK is a machine this season and is currently ranked 22nd in total offense (avg 461.0 ypg) and 24th in scoring offense (avg 36.8 ppg). The Wildcats should be able to do serious damage matched up against a Rebels stop unit that has surrendered an average of 32.0 points and 346.8 yards per game! Take Kentucky! Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.
I’m laying the points with the Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday. Iowa has been the right side for the last decade in this series, but they’re used to being the team that’s under the radar when they face Penn State. This season, the shoe is on the other foot, and I believe the Hawkeyes will do just fine in the role of a one-TD favorite. I’m a big fan of Kirk Ferentz’ “send four, drop seven” approach on defense. And that powerful unit will face a young frosh QB when PSU’s Robert Bolden steps on the field. He’s going to be in for a rude awakening at Nile Kinnick Stadium, especially if the ground game can’t get untracked. That very well may be the case with a RB in Evan Royster, who’s less than 100% healthy. And it must be noted that Iowa has held Royster to 3.7 yards per carry the last two seasons. Royster wasn’t exactly tearing it up this season until last week’s game with Temple. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes did what it seems they always do when they venture out to Pac-10 country a couple of weeks ago – they lost to Arizona. But this team should have little trouble here. The offense can run or pass, and Rick Stanzi can no longer be referred to as “pick-6 Rick.” After all, the Iowa signal caller has nine TD passes with only one INT so far this season. Iowa is on a 10-3 ATS run as a home favorite of 3 1/2 to 10 points, while the Nittany Lions have covered just two of their last nine as an underdog. Look for those trends to continue in the same direction. I’m laying the points with Iowa on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.
The jury is still out on this Florida State team. They beat BYU with a solid effort, but the Cougars are way down this season. FSU’s wins over Wake Forest and Samford don’t tell us anything, and their loss to Oklahoma was by 30. So, it’s unclear how good this team is. The Cavaliers played USC to a field goal in a game here early, outgaining the Trojans in the process. So I expect another tough fight from there here, again at home. These teams stack-up even on both offense and defense. The Cavs’ defense is ranked No. 19, and the Noles sit at No. 21. On offense, Florida State is ranked 30th while Virginia is ranked 33rd. Granted, the Seminoles have had a more difficult schedule, but the Cavs have shown they are no pushover. Christin Ponder in his fifth year in the program and is not off to a great start. His yards per pass are down 1.5 yards and his INT’s, which were limited to seven a year ago, is at three already. Then Seminoles have not been a good road team, especially posted in the favorite’s role from 3.5-10 points, covering just one of their last 11. Then Cavs have been good following a game where they allowed less than 50 yards rushing at 6-1 ATS. The Noles are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine after a a conference win. They are also just 2-6 straight-up the past three seasons when facing a defense that allows 17 or fewer points per game (Virginia has allowed just 12.3 per contest). This one has live dog written all over it, so I’ll back Virginia.