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Week 7 NFL Pick: McMordie betting the Packers +5.5 points on October 22nd 2017

New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers
Week 7 NFL Pick: Green Bay +5.5 points (October 22nd 2017)
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At 1 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Green Bay Packers + the points over the New Orleans Saints.  Obviously, Green Bay will be a shell of its former self for the remainder of this season.  But I’m still going to step in and take the Packers as a home underdog this week.  And, frankly, this is not so much a play on Green Bay as it is a play against New Orleans.  And that’s because Drew Brees & Co. come into this game on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, and with a 3-2 overall record.

But unrested road teams are an awful 77-126 ATS if they won and covered their three previous games, and are now matched up against a winning opponent.  Additionally, the Packers are 24-7 ATS at home vs. opponents with a .500 (or better) record, while New Orleans is a poor 11-21 ATS as a road favorite.  Take the Packers.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

49ers vs. Redskins Week 6 NFL Over-Under Prediction from Mike Lundin: October 15th 2017

San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Redskins
Week 6 NFL Over-Under Pick: Over 45.5 points (October 15th 2017)
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The 2-2 Washington Redskins will host the still winless San Francisco 49ers (0-5) at FedEx Field Sunday afternoon. I think we’ll see a high-scoring affair going over the total.

The Niners are coming off back-to-back overtime defeats, and their defense has been forced to spend a lot of time on the field. They gave up a total of 447 yards in last week’s 26-23 loss at Indianapolis and over is 9-2 in 49ers last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

San Francisco ranks 28th in the NFL giving up 366.4 yards of total offense per contest and here the team has to travel across the country to take on a potent Redskins offense led by Kirk Cousins. The Redskins QB has passed for 1,004 yards and seven touchdowns against just one interception on the season, and his 107.6 quarterback rating is fourth-best in the league.

I think the visitors D will be worn down quite easily, but it’s worth noting that the Niners offense has looked better in over the last three games and QB Brian Hoyer was 29-of-46 passing for 353 yards and two TDs with no INTs last week.

My free pick is on Over.

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AAA Sports: Browns vs. Texans Week 6 NFL Pick: October 15th 2017

Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans
Week 6 NFL Pick: Cleveland +11 points (October 15th 2017)
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Cleveland is 0-5 and is most likely the worst team in the league. Houston has shown promise with DeShaun Watson under center, but the team took a major hit on the defensive side of the ball in last week’s heart-breaking loss at Kansas City, losing all pro defensive star JJ Watt for the rest of the season to injury.

With their bye occuring next weekend before a game at Seattle, it’s also not too hard to imagine the home side looking past their lowly visitor today. DeShone Kizer is no DeShaun Watson, but note that Cleveland is 3-1 ATS in its last four after allowing 17 points or less in its previous contest. Looks like a few too many points, consider the BROWNS in this one.

Carolina vs. Detroit Week 5 NFL Prediction from Mike Lundin: October 8th 2017

Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions
Week 5 NFL Pick: Detroit -130 odds (October 8th 2017)
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This is a huge letdown spot for the Carolina Panthers after last week’s 33-30 upset victory as a 9-point dog at New England. Note that the Panthers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.

The Detroit Lions are coming off an upset win as well as they defeated the Vikings 14-7 at Minnesota last week. They forced three turnovers in that game, have forced an NFL-best 11 throughout the season and lead the league with a plus-9 in that category.

Carolina QB Cam Newton threw for three touchdown passes (and added a score on the ground) against the Pats, but he has a 5/5 TD/INT ratio on the season. I wouldn’t be confident to say he’s back to prime form after just one good performance.

The Lions veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford has been solid all season, throwing seven touchdown passes with only one interception. The Lions are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and this looks like a good spot to back Detroit.

My free pick is on Detroit Lions.

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Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Week 5 Over-Under Pick from Alex Smart: October 8th 2017

Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Week 5 NFL Over-Under Pick: Under 39 points (October 8th 2017)
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The Bills defense continues to look strong as was the case last week in the win over the Falcons, holding Matt Ryan to 242 passing yards and in the previous week held down a good Broncos team for 17 points in a home win. The Bills D, has been solid  allowing an average of 13.5 ppg and I’m betting on more of the same this week vs a Bengals offense that despite of unloading vs lowly Cleveland last week for 31 points, did not score a TD in their first two games and are averaging just 16 ppg in offensive production.

Meanwhile, The Bengals defense that is allowing 16.7 ppg had no problem against the Browns nasty offense last week, allowing only 215 total yards, which included allowing just 45 rushing yards. Their defense has been of the top tier variety  in three of their four games and i’m betting will once again be stoppers this week vs Buffalos conservative attack. With that said, I’m expecting  a combined score that does not eclipse the total.

CINCINNATI is 16-4 UNDER  L/20 after scoring 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games .CINCINNATI is 11-3 UNDER  L/14 in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points with a combined average of 36 ppg getting scored. Both these teams have gone under in 4 of their 4 games.

NFL Road teams against the total like the Bills – after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a top-level team ( 75% or better ) playing a team with a losing record are 23-4 UNDER dating back 5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams against the total like the Bengals – after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 23-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the UNDER

Week 4 NFL Pick: Lundin betting the Steelers -2.5 over the Ravens on October 1st 2017

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers -2.5 points (October 1st 2017)
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The Baltimore Ravens forgot to bring their offense when they traveled to London, England to face the Jacksonville Jaguars last Sunday. Actually, they forgot to bring their defense as well and had to head back home a 44-7 loser after being outgained by 410 yards to 186. The Ravens can’t possibly be as bad here the following week, but last week’s transatlantic travel won’t help and I don’t think they’ll be able to keep up with their AFC North rival Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.

Pittsburgh must be extremely disappointed with last week’s performance as well after falling 23-17 in overtime to the Bears in Chicago as a 7-point favorite. The Steelers are 2-1 on the season despite RB Le’Veon Bell being off to a slow start, and QB Big Ben Roethlisberger has yet to show his best stuff as well. It’s only a matter of time before they heat up though, and the Steelers have too many weapons for the Ravens to shut down.

Baltimore is dead last in the NFL in total offense, and Quarterback Joe Flacco is averaging just 5.3 yards per attempt through the first three contests and he completed only eight of 18 pass attempts for a career-worst 28 yards with two interceptions against the Jaguars. Pittsburgh is ranked third in the league in total defense and second against the pass, so I predict another tough game for Flacco. The Bears hurt Pittsburgh on the ground last week, but Baltimore has a much weaker running game than Chicago.

My free pick is on Pittsburgh Steelers.  

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