Calgary Flames vs. Ottawa Senators
Free NHL Pick: Calgary +125 odds
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For a number of different reasons I believe the Flames are offering up decent value in this situation:

The Flames won 6-3 at Scotiabank Place on March 3rd last year, as Miikka Kiprusoff improved to 5-0-0 in his career against the Senators.

Calgary has gone 3-1-1 since a nine-game losing streak and has a chance to finish a three-game road trip with five of a possible six points as it tries to maintain its grip on a playoff spot.

The Flames let an extra point slip away Saturday night in Tampa, losing 2-1 in overtime - their fourth defeat in 27 games after entering the third period with the lead; I look for them to play with a concerted effort in the Nations capital tonight though.

On the other side of the rink: The Senators’ string of 11 straight victories ended Saturday night in a 5-0 road loss to Toronto, which scored three goals in the first period after Ottawa had held each opponent during the streak to two or fewer goals for the entire game.

I believe the Sens will suffer a letdown tonight against a team they haven’t been able to beat in nearly six years.

The Maple Leafs chased red-hot goalie Brian Elliott, who was 9-0-0 with a 1.22 goals-against average in his previous nine starts and he’ll have his hands full tonight with some of his teammates on the IL.

Bottom line: The injury bug is striking the Senators again with defenseman Erik Karlsson and left wing Nick Foligno out.

This is a good spot, offering good value; play on the CALGARY FLAMES.

Boston Bruins vs. Montreal Canadiens
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Two of the most storied franchises in the NHL duke it out north of the border on Sunday afternoon, where the Boston Bruins (23-22-11, -$404) will meet the Montreal Canadiens (27-25-6, +$1,024). The B’s have been awful of late, losing ten straight games with just four points to show for it. As a result, they’ve slid all the way to the outside of the Eastern Conference playoff picture heading into Sunday. They haven’t won a game in regulation time since January 5th against Ottawa, which is their only regulation victory in 2010. Montreal has been headed in the opposition direction, as the Habs have picked up three straight NHL wagering victories.

Boston’s offense just has to pick up the pace at some point if it is going to make the playoffs in the crowded Eastern Conference. The unit is only scoring 2.3 goals per game, a number which just isn’t going to cut it. The Bruins’ 3-2 shootout loss at home to the Canucks on Saturday marked their ninth straight game in which they failed to score more than two goals in a game. That’s putting a ton of pressure on Gs Tuukka Rask and Tim Thomas. The two both have solid GAAs on the season (Rusk is at 2.11, while Thomas has a 2.52 GAA), but because they are constantly being left out to dry by their offense, they both have subpar records. C Patrice Bergeron is the only person on this team to have more than 30 points on the season.

Montreal’s offense hasn’t exactly been anything to write home about either at 2.5 goals per game, but at least the Habs can say that they’ve recorded three straight games with at least three goals scored. Special teams are where this squad really excels. Montreal is converting on 25.0% of its power plays this year, which is #2 in the NHL, while its penalty kill is doing the job on 83.7% of its attempts, good enough for seventh. C Tomas Plekanec is coming off of a solid three point performance against the Penguins on Saturday. He leads the team with 43 assists and 58 points.

Just three days ago, these teams met in Boston, with the Habs winning 3-2 in a shootout. It marked the third straight time that the Canadiens have beaten the boys from Beantown. If there’s anything that hockey betting fans of the Bruins can bank on in this one, it’s that their squad is 28-11 in its L/39 games against the Northeast Division.

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Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Washington Capitals
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The two teams from the Eastern Conference Finals duke it out in a heated NHL betting battle to kick off Super Bowl Sunday when the Pittsburgh Penguins (35-22-1, -$1,299) visit the Washington Capitals (40-12-6, +$2,400). This is the first time that the Pens return to the scene of the crime, where they beat the Caps in Game 7 of their playoffs series. Pittsburgh is coming off of a 5-3 defeat against Montreal on Saturday afternoon. The Capitals have been on absolute fire since losing 7-4 in Tampa Bay on January 12th. They’ve won 13 straight games and have scored at least three goals in each of those outings.

You can’t talk about the defending champions without mentioning their captain, C Sidney Crosby. He leads the team by a country mile in goals with 37 and is second on the squad with 35 points. Since January 19th, Sid the Kid has scored seven goals and dished out eight assists. Defense has been a major problem for the Penguins of late. They’ve conceded at least four goals in three of their L/4 games overall. They’re also the only team in the NHL that hasn’t pitched a shutout all season long. However, when you’ve got an offense that is averaging 32.4 shots per game, your defense can afford to slack just a tad. G Marc-Andre Fleury, who was one of the key cogs in last year’s Stanley Cup run, has a suitable 2.63 GAA on the season and is 28-16-1 to show for it.

Washington has its own superstar in the form of F Alexander Ovechkin. Ovie had a huge day against the Pens in their first meeting of the year, scoring two goals and adding an assist. Without a doubt, the Capitals have the best offense in the NHL. They enter Sunday’s showdown at #1 in the league, averaging 3.9 goals per game. They’re also #1 on the power play (26.0%) and fourth in shots on goal (32.6 per game). G Jose Theodore hasn’t exactly been stellar between the pipes, as he is only 19-7-4 on the season, but he has won nine straight starts. Theodore is allowing 2.84 goals per game.

When these two teams met in Pittsburgh earlier this season, the Caps picked up a 6-3 victory on January 21st as a part of this long winning streak. Expect to see a lot of goals in this one, as the L/17 clashes in DC have resulted in 14 ‘overs’ against just three ‘unders’.

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Detroit Red Wings vs. Anaheim Mighty Ducks
Free NHL Pick: Anaheim -135 odds
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For a number of different reasons I believe there’s decent value on the home side in this situation: Detroit, which is 2-1 against Anaheim this season, improved to 1-0-1 on its five-game road trip with a 4-2 win at West-leading San Jose on Tuesday. Keep in mind that Detroit is just 3-7 its last 10 overall and just 2-5 its last seven on the road though. Also, Chris Osgood is likely to be between the pipes tonight in this back-to-back scenario (has lost last three starts). On the other side of the rink: Two days after he signed a four-year contract extension and one day after Anaheim (26-23-7) traded longtime No. 1 goaltender Jean-Sebastien Giguere to Toronto, Jonas Hiller stopped 33 shots for his second shutout of the season in a 3-0 victory at Florida on Monday. The Ducks are rolling right now; 10-4 their last 14 overall and 5-0 their last five at home. Anaheim is in 11th place and five points behind Detroit (27-19-10), which currently holds the final Western Conference playoff spot. Four of the Ducks’ next six games before the two-week Olympic break are against teams ahead of them in the conference standings; suffice to say this is an important stretch for the Ducks. Bottom line: I expect Anaheim to play with a concerted effort before the break, to take advantage of this home spot, and to improve to 8-4 (+4.8 units) after a win by 2 goals or more.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Edmonton Oilers
Free Pick: Edmonton +120 odds
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For a number of different reasons I believe we’re getting excellent value on the home side in this situation as Edmonton looks to break out of its slump with a concerted effort in front of the home town crowd:

Even if the Hurricanes can duplicate last season’s run, it might not be enough to make the playoffs.

Their chances for consecutive postseason appearances for the first time since 2000-01 and 2001-02 took a big hit this season with a 5-17-5 start, which included a franchise-worst 0-10-4 skid.

It may be on a big run now, but the achilles heel of this team though has always been its play on the road; 6-19 its last 25 away from friendly confines.

On the other side of the ice: To say that Edmonton is struggling right now would be an understatement of massive proportions.

Edmonton is desperate and offers some real value in this situation as it moves to 9-8 (+2 units) when playing against a team with a losing record.

Montreal Canadiens vs. Ottawa Senators
Free Pick: Ottawa -180 odds
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Normally I rarely recommend a favorite of this size, but “sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason”, as I expect the Senators to demolish the Habs and believe the “reward” well outweighs the “risk” in this situation:

Montreal has dropped five of seven overall and scored once during a two-game trip to Florida, losing 2-1 to the Panthers on Tuesday and 3-0 to Tampa Bay on Wednesday; it’s a horrible 1-4 its last five on the road.

On the other side of the rink: Ottawa has outscored opponents 27-8 during an eight-game winning streak that matches its run from Oct. 13-Nov. 6, 2007, as the best in franchise history. Those opponents haven’t been slouches, either. Two days after a 3-1 win over Atlantic Division-leading New Jersey, the Senators won 4-1 at defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh on Thursday.

Ottawa is 5-0 its last five and 14-5 its last 19 at home.

Bottom line: Two teams moving in opposite directions; when taking all of the above into account, laying the price with the home team is the prudent wager.

Nashville Predators vs. Colorado Avalanche
Free NHL Pick: Avalanche -130 odds
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To date, Nashville and Colorado could arguably be considered the biggest “surprises” of the year; that being said, for a number of different reasons I believe the Av’s will win this home game and that this is a very favorable line for the home side:

Nashville is coming off a disappointing loss last night in Phoenix and I believe it will be prime for another “letdown” this evening.

The Predators were in position to win, leading 2-1 after two periods but Coyotes right wing Scottie Upshall had a natural hat trick in the third period to send Nashville to its second straight defeat.

On the other side of the rink: The Avalanche have 62 points and are tied atop the Northwest Division with the Canucks. Though both teams have the same number of points, Colorado is third in the conference because it’s played one fewer game than Vancouver.

Colorado and Nashville have met twice this season with the Predators winning both in thrilling fashion; the “double-revenge factor” comes into play this evening as well.

Bottom line: This is a spot that Colorado has done extremely well in all season: 10-3 (+9.8 units) when revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. It’s also an awesome 8-3 (+6.6 units) after a victory by two goals or more; I believe when you take all of the above factors into consideration, along with this favorable line, that COLORADO is certainly worth a second look in this instance.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Atlanta Thrashers
Free NHL Pick: Atlanta Thrashers -130 odds
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After being shut out, the Thrashers try to bounce back Tuesday night against a Toronto Maple Leafs team that has yielded the most goals in the NHL; for a number of different reasons I believe we’re getting fair value on the home side in this situation:

The Maple Leafs (17-24-9) have yielded the league-worst goals allowed total; 173. They managed to beat Nashville 4-3 on Monday, but it wasn’t pretty.

Toronto built a 3-0 lead nine minutes into the game, but allowed the Predators to score twice in the third period to tie it. Phil Kessel’s goal with 5:48 left broke the tie, ended a personal eight-game goal-scoring drought and gave the Maple Leafs just their second victory in seven games.

Despite that victory, its important to keep in mind that Toronto is just 2-5 its last seven overall and a brutal 1-5 its last six on the road.

On the other side of the rink: The Thrashers beat Carolina 5-3 on Saturday, but were unable to carry over any momentum from that win, suffering a 1-0 loss to Florida on Monday; expect a rebound.

It’s true that Atlanta is just 3-12 its last 15, but it has already performed extremely well in this spot already this season; 5-3 (+1.8 units) when playing in a “back-to-back” situation.

Bottom line: In exact contrast; Toronto is a brutal 4-7 (-1.6 units) when playing on back-to-back days.

No need to overanalyze this one; the Leafs are forced to play another road game less than 24 hours later and will be tired; when taking all of the above factors into consideration, the THRASHERS are certainly worth a serious look here.

Buffalo Sabres vs. Atlanta Thrashers
Free Pick: Atlanta
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The Sabres saw their 6-game winning streak come to an end in their last game, which was way back on 1/9. After an extended slump, the Thrashers may be finally coming around. They’ve won two of their last three, most recently a 6-1 pasting of the Senators on Tuesday. With the Sabres potentially dealing with a little ‘rust,’ I feel the home team is offering decent value. I especially like the option of playing them on the puckline, getting an extra +1.5 goals to work with.

Looking at the series history and we find that these teams have split this season’s first two meetings. Both those were at Buffalo though. Looking at the games here at Atlanta, we find that that the Thrashers have enjoyed plenty of success. In fact, the Thrashers are a perfect 5-0 the last five times that they hosted the Sabres. Looking back further and we find them at 11-3 the last 14 meetings here.

So, why not just take the Thrashers on the moneyline? Well, I certainly think that’s a solid play too, as I feel that Thrashers have an excellent shot at the outright victory. That said, check this out. The Sabres have seen eight of their last 11 games decided by a single goal. They’ve only had two wins by more than one goal, during that 11-game stretch, and both those came by only two goals. Additionally, the last three meetings (and four of the last five) between these teams, here at Atlanta, were all decided by a single goal. Even the Sabres lone victory over the Thrashers, this season, came by one goal. Overall, six of the last seven meetings were won by one goal. If you don’t mind laying some extra juice for a high percentage play, consider Atlanta at +1.5 goals

Free NHL Pick: Washington Capitals vs. San Jose Sharks o6.0 (-105 NHL odds)
Wed December 30th 2009 10:05p
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The scoreboard operator should be kept busy tonight when the San Jose Sharks host the Washington Capitals in what should turn out to be one of the more entertaining games of the season, not to mention a potential Stanly Cup Finals preview.

The Sharks have played phenomenally well at home as usual, going 11-2-5 at HP Pavillion. They are averaging a hefty 3.22 goals per game at The Tank, and although they do not face Alexander Ovechkin and the Capitals very often, they did light the lamp all night in a 7-2 triumph the only time Washington visited here last season.

Furthermore, this Sharks team is scoring more goals than recent years, as Patrick Marleau (25) and Danny Heatley (23) are both in the 20s already in goals scored and Joe Thornton leads the entire NHL in both points (54) and assists (44).

Meanwhile, the Capitals lead the league in goals at 3.60 goals per game overall, and they do not lose much potency on the road, where they average 3.38 goals. They will also be motivated by this chance to strut their stuff vs. one of the Western elite teams. While the Sharks usually play good defense, we do not think there is a team in the league that can contain a motivated Caps team, an Washibgton has scored at least three goals in seven of their last eight games.

Do not be surprised if both teams score at least three goals here, ensuring a safe Over.

NHL Free Pick: Capitals, Sharks Over 6 (-105)