Chicago Blackhawks vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Game 6 Prediction: Under 5.5 -110 odds (June 9th 2010)
Visit Touthouse.com for more NHL hockey picks from Nick Parsons

For a number of different reasons I believe this will be the tightest game of the Stanley Cup Final as the Flyers will look to stave off elimination and send this one back to Chicago for a Game 7; as a result the “under” offers up a great investment opportunity:

Another high-scoring affair in Game 5; after losing back-to-back games in Philadelphia, the Blackhawks looked better in all facets in front of their home town crowd.

Important to note though that Chicago has in fact seen the total go “under” the posted number in 9 of 15 games this year when playing with two or more days of rest.

On the other side of the rink: Michael Leighton was pulled for the second time in five Games in Sunday’s loss.

Peter Laviolette has yet to decide who will start Game 6, but keep in mind that Leighton is 6-0 with two shutouts in six playoff starts in front of the home town crowd; Brian Boucher has not started a game since Game 5 against the Bruins.

Also keep in mind that Philadelphia is 9-1 at the Wachovia Center during the playoffs.

The Flyers have seen the total go “under” the number in 20 of 29 games this year after allowing 4 goals or more in their previous contest; which means of course, that after a sub-par effort, this team comes out and plays much more aggressively on the defensive side of the puck.

Philadelphia has also seen the total go “under” the number in all four games its played this season after playing to three or more consecutive “overs”.

Bottom line: So far there have been 40 goals in this series; the most over five games of the Stanley Cup Final since 1981.

After a wide open affair in Game 5, I expect Game 6 to be a much tighter affair as each team will look to avoid making silly mistakes against its opportunistic opponent; when coupled with the extremely strong “under” trends that each exhibits in this position, you may want to consider taking a second look at the UNDER in this situation.

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Philadelphia Flyers - Game 3
Free Pick: Philadelphia Flyers -130 odds
Visit Touthouse.com for more NHL hockey picks from Big Al McMordie

At 8:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Philadelphia Flyers over the Chicago Blackhawks. The Flyers may be down 2-0 in this series, but they were very close to coming back home with the series tied, and actually not that far off from bringing a 2-0 lead back to Broad Street. Philadelphia had Chicago’s back against the wall in Game 1 with a 4-3 lead about midway through the contest, and matched the Blackhawks in shots (32 apiece) before succumbing in the third period to lose 6-5 in a wild opener. Then in Game 2, the Flyers again played the Hawks even for 99% of the match on enemy ice, only to have a 28-second lapse in the second period which resulted in two Chicago goals which turned out to be enough. The Flyers have to be feeling good because they come back to their home arena knowing they outplayed Chicago in that second game in which they out-shot them by 33-26. Should Philly be concerned that the Hawks are 11-1 in their last 12 road games? No, they shouldn’t, for one simple reason: Chicago is 0-8 in its last eight games in Philly. The Flyers may be only 31-15-1-2 at home this season, but they’ve really heated up there lately, going 22-7 in their last 29 in the City of Brotherly Love. Take Philly. As always, good luck…Al McMordie.

Stanley Cup Betting
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Free Pick: Philadelphia Flyers +170 odds
Visit Touthouse.com for more NHL hockey picks from Nick Parsons

This should prove to be a great Stanley Cup Finals.

I feel Philadelphia has a legitimate shot at winning Game 1, and of winning the Stanley Cup.

Both teams have very hot goaltending coming into this game; both are very deep and each has a ton of talent; they are also both extremely physical.

But Chris Pronger could very well be the X-Factor for Philadelphia.

He plays half of every game and shuts down the oppositions top forwards; and he’s also the best scoring blue liner.

He’ll have his hands full of course with Dustin Byfuglien, who has been huge for Chicago this post-season, but I have to give the advantage to Pronger in that head to head matchup.

I think Chicago has an awesome defense as well, but believe the Flyers, anchored by Pronger, have the slight advantage.

When I look at each up front, I’d say the advantage goes to the Blackhawks in the skill department, but that said, Philly does have plenty of talent as well and I think what they lack in skill, they more than make up for it with veteran savvy; so to me, the forwards are a wash.

So that leaves goaltending; Antti Niemi vs. Michael Leighton.

Hard to say who has the advantage here, but most people I think would give it to the rookie Niemi.

However I’m not convinced he is the better goaltender.

Leighton has played at an extremely high level since being thrust into the spot light, and there’s nothing I’ve seen that makes me think he’ll have a letdown in the Finals.

Although its dominated almost every statistical category all season long, it’s important to point out that Chicago has in fact gone 5-7 (-7.9 units) when playing with three or more days of rest this year.

The path the Flyers took to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals has been incredible; they steamrolled through the Devils; the now historic come from behind series victory over the Bruins; a convincing 5-game pounding of the Habs which included three shutouts for Leighton; and it all got started on the last day of the regular season when Brian Boucher outdueled Henrik Lundqvist in a shootout which preserved the 2-1 victory that clinched a playoff berth for the Flyers and ended the Rangers season.

It won’t be easy; just look at the way the Hawks manhandled the Sharks; but I think when you take into account all of the above factors (the X-factor of Pronger and the Flyers overall veteran experience), that we’re getting excellent value on PHILADELPHIA in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals.

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Montreal Canadiens
Free Pick: Montreal Canadiens -125 odds
Visit Touthouse.com for more NHL hockey playoffs picks from Nick Parsons

Do or die for Montreal here in my opinion.

Although the Habs came back from a 3-1 hole to beat Washington in the first round, and then beat the defending Stanley Cup Champs in seven games in the second, to ask this team to come back from a 3-0 deficit (like the Flyers just historically did), is not going to be possible in my opinion.

If Montreal is ever going to win a game in this series, tonight’s the night; and there are plenty of reasons to believe it will.

One of the main reasons the Habs are in the Eastern Conference Finals has been their ability to focus in on their opponents top line and scorers; Ovechkin and Backstrom in Round 1, and Crosby and Malkin in Game 2.

There is a big difference between those teams and the Flyers though; Philadelphia doesn’t have a “super star” line or players; it has a very balanced offensive attack.

Montreal has been extremely adept at making necessary adjustments after a loss in the post-season and must come out with a different game plan as far as slowing down the Flyers offense is concerned.

But there’s no question what must be done in order to break Michael Leighton’s two-game shut-out streak; plenty of shots and traffic in front of the net.

Keep in mind though, Montreal did outshoot the Flyers 30-23 in Game 2; 16-6 in the first frame!

However, the Habs uncharacteristically seemed to “pack it in” during the third period as they managed just four shots on the Flyers netminder.

And that’s where the Bell Center comes into play this evening; the Habs won’t need to look any farther than a millimetre behind the glass for added motivation tonight as the Montreal faithful will be going ballistic.

There’s one other factor tonight that many have either not taken into consideration, or overlooked or even written off; and that’s Jaroslav Halak.

Without question, Montreal would not be in the Eastern Conference Finals if not for the Slovakian goaltender; I expect Halak to have his best game of this series tonight; remember as well that Montreal is 5-2 (+8 units) when trailing in a playoff series.

Philadelphia is a sub-par 4-4 (-1 unit) after shutting out its opponent in its previous contest.

With its back against the wall, I believe MONTREAL will claw its way back into this series.

NHL Playoffs: Montreal Canadiens vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Free Pick: Montreal Canadiens
Visit Touthouse.com for more NHL Hockey playoffs picks from Nick Parsons

In Game 1 of its Round 2 series vs. the Penguins, Montreal lost 6-3; it bounced back with a concerted effort on both ends of the ice and won 3-1 in Game 2; I believe this contest will follow suit.

I have to admit, I was surprised how flat the Canadiens came out and played in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

After shutting down the offensively minded President Cup trophy winners in Round 1, and the defending Stanley Cup Champs in Round 2, the physical Flyers pounded the Habs into submission on Sunday.

No doubt Philadelphia poses a different challenge for this team; simply put, its much bigger.

Montreal has shown incredible heart and hustle to get to this point, but must make changes to its game plan in Game 2 to create traffic in front of Philadelphia’s net.

On the other side of the ice: Backup and now starter Michael Leighton has played great to this point; however I expect a letdown against a determined Canadiens team.

To say Philadelphia has been “over-achieving” would be an understatement; never mind the injury to Brian Boucher, this team is still missing Jeff Carter and Ian Laperriere.

Bottom line: In my opinion the most important thing that the Habs have done to make it as far as they have, more than all of their blocked shots, or the stellar goaltending they’ve received, or anything else they’ve done to get to this point, has been their ability to make key/necessary and sometimes subtle adjustments on both the offensive and defensive ends of the ice; a testament to Jacques Martin’s coaching.

Jaroslav Halak has consistently played at his best after a sub par effort all season; I believe this will be the case once again.

Montreal is 5-1 (+9 units) when trailing in a playoff series while Philadelphia is 3-4 (-2 units) after shutting out its opponent in its previous game; when taking all of the above into account, the CANADIENS offer great value in this situation.

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Vancouver Canucks
Free Pick: Under 6 Goals -110 odds
Visit Touthouse.com for more NHL hockey picks from Nick Parsons

I stated before this series started that these were the types of teams that could win 5-1 one night, and then lose 5-1 in the following game; Chicago leads the series 3-2 and has dominated the Canucks at GM Place, outscoring them 12-6 in two games there.

Game 1: 5-1 win for Vancouver
Game 2: 4-2 win for Chicago
Game 3: 5-2 win for Chicago
Game 4: 7-4 win for Chicago
Game 5: 4-1 win for Vancouver

I had a *10* play on the “under” in Game 5, and my *10* post season NHL picks remain on a 9-4 (69%) run since the beginning of the Playoffs.

For the most part, I’ve had a hard time getting a good read on either side during this series…but not tonight! I believe this one is going to be a no-brainer. (make sure to check out my big *10* ‘Hawks/Nucks GAME 6 WINNER)

Vancouver was extremely effective at shutting down the ‘Hawks in Game 5, and Dustin Byfuglien, the bruising 6′ 5″ 265 lb. menace, was a non-factor.

The Canucks made a major adjustment in Chicago, and I expect them to do the same in their own barn; they played a much more disciplined game and avoided stupid penalties; Vancouver was short-handed 14 times in its previous two home games and gave up six-power play goals.

This was a problem for it in its first round matchup vs. LA as well, until it made similar changes in its game plan.

That’s not to say it didn’t play aggressive, especially short handed.

“It’s a team game,” said Roberto Luongo, who made 29 saves last time out. “We all have to step it up as a team. If we want to move on we’ve got to play the best hockey we’ve played all year. It’s not on one guy to make a difference. It’s on everybody to make sure they give a little extra.”

Chicago has played some of its best hockey on the road and will be looking to get more traffic and shots on Luongo; “We put ourselves in this situation,” forward Patrick Kane said. “We want to win, obviously, in Game 6 and not give ourselves a chance to go to Game 7.”

I’m expecting the tightest contest of this series.

It has to be pointed out that Chicago has in fact seen the total go “under” the number in 10 of 15 games this year after a loss by 2 goals or more in its previous contest; which means of course, that after a sub par effort, this team comes out and plays with an extremely concerted effort on the defensive end.

This number is too high; Luongo and Antti Niemi take centre stage tonight; I suggest a second look at the UNDER in this situation.

San Jose Sharks vs. Detroit Red Wings
Free NHL Playoffs Pick: Detroit -125 odds
Visit Touthouse.com for more expert NHL picks and hockey betting predictions from Nick Parsons

I believe the Wings will play their best game of this series and stave off elimination with a concerted effort in front of the home town crowd:

San Jose is well on its way to reaching the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2004.

Evgeni Nabokov has consistently been the better goaltender in this series; that said, I expect the Sharks to come out a bit flat-footed in this one, giving the Wings enough of an edge to win one game of this series, as San Jose will look to finish off the defending Western Conference champs in Game 5 in its own barn.

Although San Jose won Game 3, the fact remains that the Sharks always struggle at the Joe; 6-18-1 their last 25 when playing on the road against Detroit.

On the other side of the rink: Only two teams in NHL history have come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series, and while I don’t believe that will be the case here, I do believe the Wings will play a complete game in this one and do just enough to secure their first victory of the second round.

And this is a position that the Wings have excelled in all year; 6-1 (+4.8 units) after three or more consecutive losses.

Bottom line: Look for DETROIT to get its first victory of the second round.

Buffalo Sabres vs. Boston Bruins
Free Pick: Boston Bruins -135 odds
Visit Touthouse.com for more NHL playoffs hockey predictions from Nick Parsons
Click here for expert NHL betting picks

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the Bruins as they’ll look to wrap up this series in front of the home town crowd:

Buffalo played well enough to force a Game 6; but keep this in mind: no Sabres team in history has ever rallied from a 3-1 deficit to win a series.

Also remember, that dating back to the end of the regular season, Buffalo is a brutal 1-6 its last seven on the road overall.

On the other side of the ice: Boston is 14-1 when leading a best-of-seven series 3-1.

Boston was simply outplayed last time out against a desperate Buffalo team.

I believe home ice advantage can not be overlooked in this game.

And Boston has excelled in this spot; 5-3 (+1.2 units) when playing with two days of rest; 13-7 (+4.4 units) after allowing four goals or more in its previous contest.

Bottom line: I’m not reading too much into the result in Game 5 and look for the Bruins to clamp down in this contest and get ready for the 2nd round.

Ottawa Senators vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Free Pick: Ottawa
Visit Touthouse.com for more hockey picks from Nick Parsons
Click here for today’s expert NHL betting selections

With their backs against the wall, I look for the Senators to play a tight game tonight, and while they may not win this contest, I expect it to be close, and recommend laying the juice for the 1 1/2 here.

I think the Sens still have some fight left in them; they’ve played especially well in Pittsburgh; “We played some good games in Pittsburgh, two really good games, I thought,” Daniel Alfredsson said. “We played OK in Game 3, not great, and in Game 4 we weren’t good at all.”

I have to point out that this has historically been a spot that Pittsburgh has struggled in; its lost four of six times since ‘08 in its first opportunity to end a series in a game it doesn’t actually face elimination itself.

While history may not repeat itself tonight, as I said off the top, this should be the most competitive game of the series and could well see overtime.

Keep in mind though, that in this exact situation in the first round against the Flyers a year ago, the Pens played their worst game of their postseason and lost 3-0 in front of the home town crowd.

Ottawa hasn’t tipped its hat yet as to who will be in net, but whether its Leclaire or Elliot, I expect a solid performance; I recommend taking a second look at the Sens on the “puck line”.

Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens
Free Pick: Under 6 Goals -110 odds
Visit Touthouse.com for more 2010 NHL Playoffs hockey picks from Nick Parsons
Click here for today’s expert NHL betting picks

The Capitals scored in the final 30 seconds of Game 3 for a 5-1 final; for a number of different reasons though I expect today’s game to be a more tightly contested affair as the Habs fight for their playoff lives:

Washington won 5-1 on Monday night but was once again stymied on the powerplay, going 0-for-7.

The Capitals are in fact 0-for-14 with the man advantage in this series (unbelievably, they haven’t scored a powerplay goal in five games which includes their final two regular season contests).

Montreal had its chances in Game 3, but was turned away behind some great play from Semyon Varlamov; “I didn’t realize when I was watching it this morning that they had so many good chances,” coach Bruce Boudreau commented. “Sometimes the score of the game masks how you played. We thought at the end of the first we were doing pretty good and they came close to scoring about five really good chances to score and Varly was up to the task and played really strong in that period.”

On the other side of the rink: This series is essentially over if Montreal loses tonight.

After wining the opener, falling apart in Game 2, and getting blown out in Game 3, the wind is now definitely out of Montreal’s sails.

Bottom line: To say this is an important game for the Habs would be an understatement; although actually winning this contest is a tall order, I believe the Canadiens will put forth a titanic effort and leave everything they have on the ice.

The penalty kill has been sharp; I’d suggest taking a second look at the “under” in this game.