Major League Baseball Report -Tuesday, May 13, 2008
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Those of you that follow our Bullpen System should be very happy to already know this, but there are three early season surprise teams in MLB that continue to be underrated by the oddsmakers.

All three of these teams have been in the top 10 in the Major Leagues in bullpen ERA since our system kicked in on May 1, and those bullpens have been a key part of these teams’ success so far. This is further evidence that you cannot go wrong if you consistently back good pens, because these clubs are less likely to blow late leads and more likely to come back from early deficits while the pens hold down the fort.

So without further ado, the three underrated teams that may not cool off any time soon are:

FLORIDA MARLINS (23-15, +12.32 units): The Marlins are currently tied for third in the Major Leagues with a 3.18 bullpen ERA. Florida may not have one single reliever that someone would call intimidating, but they have been the ultimate definition of bullpen-by-committee to this point. Florida has five relievers that have pitched at least 13 innings this season and have an ERA of less than 3.00. This is the main reason that the Marlins surprisingly sit atop the National League East at this point in time.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS (23-16, +8.71 units): The Athletics currently rank second in the Major Leagues with a 2.78 bullpen ERA. The Athletics have two relievers that current sport an ERA under 1.00, as Andrew Brown and Santiago Casilla have incredibly combined to allow a grand total of two earned runs in 34.1 innings! Alan Embree has also done a fine job, posting a 2.60 ERA over 17.1 relief innings. Closer Houston Street has recovered nicely from a slow start, allowing just one earned run in his last seven appearances. Street is now up to nine saves after blowing two opportunities early.

TAMPA BAY RAYS (22-16, +7.16 units): The Rays are currently tied for third in the Major Leagues with a 3.18 bullpen ERA. These are not your father’s (alright, your older brother’s) Tampa Bay Devil Rays, as it appears this club exorcised the bullpen demons that have plagued the franchise when it dropped the “Devil” from the team name. Troy Percival of all people has been brilliant in the closer’s role, posting a 1.93 ERA with 13 scoreless outing out of 14 total appearances. The Rays have also gotten yeoman’s work from set-up men Gary Glover, J.P. Howell and Dan Wheeler. This unit is the primary reason that the Rays are off to the best start in the history of the franchise.

Article Courtesy of Fairway Jay - A Professional Sports Handicapper at Touthouse.com
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The 2008 PLAYERS does not have the feel of a Championship that the players themselves call their own. With over a $9 million purse and $1.7 first place prize, the top of the leaderboard is more reminiscent of a ‘blast from the past’ than one reflective of the top players in the world. With 47-year old Kenny Perry (-6) leading at the halfway point and 50-year old Bernhard Langer (-5) just a shot behind, I’m thinking the Saturday TV ratings could prove to be a ‘bogey’ for the networks. After all, without Tiger Woods in the field this week, the interest level is ‘sub-par’ and the (lack of) financial gain to the networks, local merchants and other media outlets has to be a concern. In fact, the numbers for national media in attendance speak for themselves. None of the papers from Los Angeles or Chicago are covering the PLAYERS Championship. Even the Miami Herald, located just six hours down Interstate 95, took a pass. So did St. Petersburg, the state’s biggest newspaper. Sports strongholds like Charlotte, Dallas, Houston and Philadelphia also failed to ‘step to the tee’. And media members from San Diego, set to host the U.S. Open in a month, decided not to make the trip to Florida.

Back to the tournament, first round leader Sergio Garcia (-5) and Paul Goydos are also just a shot back as the player’s tee-off Saturday. Garcia is leading the field in both fairway’s hit and greens in regulation through two rounds, as his tee-to-green game has been terrific; even while playing in the windy and blustery conditions Friday afternoon. I continue to read the players comments and listen to interviews to gather additional information and insight on how the players themselves are playing and adapting to the conditions. Sergio Garcia is in very good control of his game and golf ball and staying committed to his shots as the wind gusts make distance control more difficult. Solid ball striking is essential for success at Sawgrass, and Sergio has been stellar while his putting shows signs of improvement with the help of short-game instructor and putting guru Stan Utley.

I like Garcia over Kenny Perry as a short favorite in a single-day match-up Saturday. The weather will be hot (90 degrees) and windy (up to 20mph) Saturday, and worse on Sunday. Garcia has proven he can handle adverse weather and wind conditions in the past, although his mental makeup and putting have proven questionable. Garcia should hold steady and be in the hunt come Sunday. Big moves were made during last year’s third round from players farther off the pace, however the conditions were nearly ideal. With high heat and gusty winds combined with faster and firmer greens and fairway’s this year, it’s going to be ‘rough’ for a player too far back in the pack to make up ground. And the players that position themselves near the top for Sunday’s final round will have to battle not only the wind, but likely scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.

Some big names and top-rated players missed the cut and will not be playing this weekend. Gone are Vijay Singh, Geoff Ogilvy, Sean O’Hair, Steve Stricker, Justin Leonard, K.J. Choi, Padraig Harrington, Brandt Snedeker and Andres Romero among others. Plenty of match-up betting on many of these players, and fortunately we avoided the ‘rough’ and even ‘faded’ a few like Ogivly and Singh. In fact, we have our top-play 20* Big Drive in the bag before the weekend, as Stewart Cink has beaten Geoff Ogivly, who struggled while shooting 77-75. We ‘chipped-in’ an additional recommendation winner on Furyk over Singh, and have three others in the balance over the weekend. Those extra ‘chip-in’ recommended plays have now gone 8-1 and have produced plenty of profit while supporting the official ‘Fairway Forecast’ plays this PGA season. Now 2-0 on our rare 20* Big Drive plays this year and 20-6 the past four years on those ‘Big Bertha’ bombers, I encourage you to take a ‘shot’ with my PGA match-up plays that have produced over 55 units of profit the past four years. Plenty of ‘green’ to be made betting the PGA if you take the right ‘approach’ and stay on ‘course, and we’ll continue to take our ‘shots’ and try to ‘chip-in’ more winners and helpful information and insight.

NBA PLAYOFFS WEEKEND PREVIEW: Article Courtesy of Ted Sevranksy, A Professional Sports Handicapper at Touthouse.com - Click Here to Purchase Ted’s Expert NBA Betting Picks

Detroit @ Orlando (Magic -5, O/U 187)
The biggest storyline for Game 4 of the Pistons-Magic series concerns the injury to Detroit point guard Chauncey Billups. Billups went down with a strained right hamstring early in the first quarter of Game 3 and didn’t return. The Magic took immediate advantage of his absence, going on an 18-4 run to take an 18 point lead that they would never relinquish.

Reports on Friday indicate that Billups is expected to suit up and play for the Pistons on Saturday, but his effectiveness is another matter entirely. Head coach Flip Saunders: “I’m concerned because (Billups is) our quarterback; he runs our team. You saw our first two games. He’s been a huge part of why we’ve been successful—that matchup has been huge for us.”

Without Billups to defend, Orlando point guard Jameer Nelson enjoyed one of his best games of the postseason, spurring the Magic offense to 111 points on 53% shooting. Billups backup, rookie Rodney Stuckey, had a decent offensive game, but he was able to keep Nelson out of the paint, driving and dishing to open teammates.

The Magic had lost nine straight in the playoffs against the Pistons prior to Wednesday’s victory. Orlando center Dwight Howard: “It felt real good, finally getting a chance to beat those guys. The main thing is we played the way we know how to play—run and try to cut the turnovers down. We can beat anybody.”

Boston @ Cleveland (Cavs -1.5, O/U 176)
The Boston Celtics were the best team in the NBA during the regular season in large part due to their defense. The numbers don’t lie. The Celtics ranked #1 in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage allowed by a wide margin, holding foes to 42% shooting for the season – far better than the defensive minded Spurs, Pistons and Rockets.

Boston was equally adept at shutting down opposing teams from the perimeter, holding foes to a 31.6 shooting percentage from beyond the arc, also best in the NBA by a wide margin. Kevin Garnett won the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year award in a landslide vote, and KG’s defensive intensity has certainly carried over to his teammates. When a team doesn’t give up fast break baskets, perimeter jumpers or points in the paint out of halfcourt sets, it makes them a very difficult team to beat.

Cleveland found that out the hard way in Games 1 and 2. The Cavs scored only 72 points in the first game of this series, held to 31% shooting. In Game 2, they improved: 73 total points scored on 36% shooting. The Cavs didn’t hit much from the perimeter, just 6-31 from three point range. And most important of all, Cleveland’s ‘Big One’ (in sharp contrast to the Celtics ‘Big Three’) was completely stymied by the Celtics defensive approach, hitting just 8 of his 42 shot attempts in the first two games of the series, while committing 17 turnovers.

We’ve seen one team after the next return home facing an 0-2 deficit and respond with their best game of the series: San Antonio, Utah and Orlando already here in Round 2; Toronto, Dallas and Atlanta in the first round. The Celtics are 0-3 SU and ATS in their three previous road games here in the playoffs, losing all three games at Atlanta by a combined 42.5 points against the spread.

New Orleans @ San Antonio (Spurs -6, O/U 186)
The Spurs completely changed their gameplan against the Hornets for Game 3 after losing the first two games of the series in blowout fashion at New Orleans. San Antonio head coach Greg Popovich changed his defensive gameplan, putting shutdown defender Bruce Bowen on Peja Stojakovic instead of Chris Paul. The result: Paul had another huge game — 35 points, nine assists – but the contributions of the Hornets supporting cast were minimized.

At the offensive end, Popovich started Manu Ginobili, who normally comes off the bench. He also instructed Tony Parker to be more aggressive in transition, taking the ball to the basket with authority. The result? 62 points and 17 assists for the duo, by far their best games of the series.

Popovich: “We made shots, and we made better decisions. They only had [six] points off turnovers instead of the 22 they’ve been averaging. We had 28 assists, which is great, so if you can get 28 assists and not make turnovers, that makes your offense look a whole hell of a lot better…..I probably got [Parker] all screwed up [in Games 1 and 2] trying to get him to make perfect decisions. We know he’s better when he’s aggressive and trying to score. That’s the approach he took.”

For Game 4, we have to wonder if San Antonio is going to be capable of playing as well as they did in their last outing. Manu Ginobili, following Thursday’s win: “Tonight was like a Game 7 for us.” We’ve already seen the Hornets bounce back from a bad road loss in Game 3 of their series against Dallas with a resounding Game 4 victory. And let’s not forget that the Hornets were one of the strongest teams in the NBA on the road this season, 25-16 ATS, including a 24 point blowout over the Spurs in San Antonio back in January.

LA Lakers @ Utah (Jazz -5, O/U 210.5)
The Lakers are a tough team to bet against as underdogs in Game 4. LA is 6-1 SU and ATS here in the playoffs. They were one of the four teams to beat the Jazz in Salt Lake City during the regular season; the only team to do it after the All Star break. The Lakers were the single best road team in the NBA against the spread during the regular season, and they won and covered both first round games at Denver. To top it off, LA is on a 13-3 ATS run as underdogs of six points or less, consistently cashing in this role.

But Utah is not an easy team to fade here either. The Jazz were an NBA best 37-4 at Energy Solutions Arena during the regular season, and they beat the Rockets twice on this floor in their first round series. Utah has legitimate matchup edges over the Lake-show in the paint – they’ll continue to win the battle of the boards, and get easy second chance opportunities off the offensive glass, just as they have in the first three games of this series. Carlos Boozer was able to avoid foul trouble in the Jazz Game 3 victory, pacing the team with 27 points and 20 boards, while maintaining a physical presence in the paint that LA simply doesn’t have without the injured Andrew Bynum.

Here are some pertinent quotes following the Jazz Game 3 win. Jazz point guard Deron Williams: “It was just a solid game for us tonight. We pushed the ball in transition and got some easy things going. Guys were hitting shots and our confidence kept carrying over.” NBA MVP Kobe Bryant, following the loss: “We clawed back but you can’t turn the ball over so many times. We had a lot of open looks and you can sustain a game like that if you don’t turn the ball over.” Kobe’s teammate, Lamar Odom: “This team is good enough for us to lose to and we have to understand that and play our best game at all times. We could have lost to anyone playing like that.” Lakers coach Phil Jackson: “I told the guys they made a good comeback but they just couldn’t make the plays at the end.”

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Article Courtesy of Ted Sevransky, A Professional Sports Handicapper at Touthouse.com
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In this article, I’ll discuss the six primary reasons why betting baseball totals can be an extremely profitable endeavor, particularly in relation to betting baseball sides.

1) You can be only half right and still win your bet.
This is the #1 reason why I like betting baseball totals. Let’s say Ben Sheets of the Brewers and Jake Peavy of the Padres are slated to face one another in Milwaukee, with a total of 7.5 for the game. With two of the top pitchers in the NL on the mound, it’s easy to make a case for the Under. But even if one of the two starters gets hit hard, a 6-1 final score going Under the total is still well within the range of possibility.

It’s a similar story with poor pitchers. If the same two teams meet, but with Manny Parra taking the hill for the Brewers against the Padres Justin Germano, the total would probably be in the 9.5 or 10 range. Over bettors can cash their tickets even if Parra pitches a rare gem, because Germano could still get rocked, and an 8-3 final is certainly not out of reach.

2) You don’t have to lay big prices to bet on or against any pitcher.
Matt Morris was arguably the worst starting pitcher in the major leagues in the first month of the 2008 season, doing time with the Pittsburgh Pirates before he (regrettably, but mercifully) got released. The linesmakers aren’t idiots by any stretch of the imagination – the Pirates were a substantial underdog just about every time Morris took the mound, so betting against him would require the side bettor to lay a big price. But you didn’t have to lay more than -110 or -115 betting Morris Over the total in those starts, and you would have cashed repeatedly by doing so.

Similarly, the linesmakers consistently install high prices on the favorite when the ‘A’ list starters take the hill. Why lay a big price to support Brandon Webb of the Diamondbacks or Roy Halladay of the Blue Jays when you can bet the Under at -110, assuming much less risk with the same potential reward?

3) The linesmakers don’t have much wiggle room to adjust their totals.
Baseball totals generally range between a low of 7 and a high of 11.5, with the (very) occasional 6.5 or 12. Even when two hot hitting teams face off against two mediocre starters, the total is not going to come 14.

Similarly, when two cold hitting teams face off against two dominant starters, the total is not going to come 5. In other words, it’s very difficult for the linesmakers to compensate enough within the limited confines of the standard range of totals. The linesmakers don’t hesitate to price a dominant favorite at -300, but they don’t have that same ability to adjust when setting baseball totals.

4) The linesmakers are not as confident in their numbers.
Each sportsbook sets limits on the amount that can be bet on any particular wager. The casual bettor rarely runs into the sportsbook limits, normally several thousand dollars or more on side wagers in bases, football and hoops. But the bookmakers do not set high limits like that for baseball totals, and many sportsbooks are reluctant to take wagers above $500 or $1000.

Why not? Part of the reason stems from the issues noted above, in #3. Part of the reason comes from the fact that the books get very little ‘square’ money on MLB totals – they’re up against the wiseguy professional bettors, and you don’t remain a professional bettor for very long unless you are beating the bookmaker with relative consistency.

That means that the books don’t get balanced action on the majority of baseball totals that they hang. But as much as anything, the low limits on totals are for one reason alone – the linesmakers aren’t as confident that their numbers are good enough to withstand high stakes wagers from informed bettors.

5) Streaks don’t get noticed by the public or the linesmakers.
When any baseball team wins eight straight games, they’ll be catapulted to the lead story on ESPN, and noted by bettors and linesmakers rather quickly. The hot team might have been priced as a -140 favorite in their first game of the streak, but with the same two pitchers on the mound following eight straight wins, the hot team would be much closer to being a -200 favorite, because of the added public money backing that club.

But the general public doesn’t notice Over/Under streaks, nor do the national media. No pundit in the country could tell you that the Blue Jays have gone Under the total in nine straight games heading into their matchup with Tampa Bay tonight, nor could any TV talking head tell you that the Pittsburgh Pirates have been the single strongest Over team in baseball over the first five weeks of the season. Both Carlos Zambrano and Aaron Harang are 6-1 to the Under in their first seven starts in 2008, while Cleveland’s Fausto Carmona is 6-0 to the Over in his first six starts of the campaign. This ‘streak’ strategy works for both pitchers and teams.

These type of streaks tend to feed upon themselves, extending onwards indefinitely. A few years back, the Dodgers went Under the total 99 times, but Over only 53 times. The Red Sox, on the other hand, went Over the total 95 times while going Under the total only 63 times. I know a handicapper who took a three week vacation that summer, betting just the Dodgers Under and Red Sox Over every game while he was gone. By the time he returned to his daily ‘capping, he was up more than 15 units, just riding the streaking teams again and again.

And this makes perfect sense. Teams who are struggling at the plate tend to press, lose confidence, and get out of their normal rhythm. Teams that are hitting well gain confidence, are more selective with their swinging, and generally have better at bats.

Likewise, teams that are getting good starting pitching don’t overuse their bullpens, leaving the pens much fresher and better than the teams that are getting lousy starting pitching, who are forced to rely on overused and tired bullpens. A run of Unders produces more Unders; a run of Overs produces more Overs, and the linesmakers simply can’t adjust.

6) Home plate umpires have Over/Under tendencies as much as teams do.
In baseball, the home plate ump has a huge impact on the game, more so than any other referee in any major sport. And home plate umpires are no secret – you can easily find out which ump is slated to be behind the plate for any given game. There’s no question that different umpires have different strike zones.

Umps that have a slightly wider strike zone allow the pitchers to get ahead in the count more often, while umps with a tighter strike zone force pitchers behind in the count on a consistent basis. Pitchers get rattled when close calls at the plate don’t go their way, while they gain confidence when they are getting those close calls.

Ed Montague is a well known ‘Over’ type umpire, with a relatively narrow strike zone that frustrates pitchers and rewards hitters. Since the start of the 2005 season, Montague has gone 56-33 to the Over in the games where he is calling balls and strikes, good for 63% Overs betting them blindly during a four year span. That stands in sharp contrast with an ‘Under’ ump like Doug Eddings, 65-41 to the Under since the start of 2005, with a truly enormous strike zone for pitchers to work with..

Conclusion:
For the reasons outlines above, baseball totals can be a consistent and profitable part of any handicapper’s arsenal, worth examining closely on a daily basis throughout the baseball season.

2008 NHL Hockey Playoffs Reprt
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
By Guido Carapellucci - Click Here To Buy LT Profits NHL Hockey Playoff Picks

Well, it may have taken two years, but it looks like the NHL has achieved its objective by changing the rules after the players’ strike, as the Stanley Cup Playoffs this season have been the highest scoring in recent memory.

A total of 54 games have been played through the first two rounds, and the Over is 31-23, 57.4 percent to this point with an average combined total score of 5.47 goals per game. This is a far cry from all the clutching and grabbing from recent playoff seasons, when totals set at 4.5 or even 4 were more commonplace.

That is obviously not the case this season, where totals of 5 are being busted left and right, sometimes at nice plus odds. Furthermore, playoff games involving the four teams in the conference finals have averaged a combined 5.64 goals so far, meaning the Overs are even worth a peak at 5.5, especially in the Eastern Conference where the Pittsburgh Penguins are facing the Philadelphia Flyers in an all-Pennsylvania final.

The only defensive-minded club out of the final four is the Dallas Stars, but the fact that they are facing the well-balanced Detroit Red Wings may force Dallas to open up a bit more than they would like, as they cannot count on limiting the Wings to two goals per game like they did to their first two playoff opponents.

So will this abnormally high percentage of Overs continue over the final two rounds? We have every reason to believe they will, based on these matchups.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers: The Flyers have been the most wide-open of the playoff teams, with their games averaging a whopping 6.41 goals in the post-season! Pittsburgh playoff games are averaging 5.33 goals, but keep in mind they played the most defensive-conscious team in the East in the second round in the New York Rangers. Now, the Flyers did win 2-0 the last time these clubs met on April 6, but that contest meant nothing to the Penguins. These teams played six consecutive Overs this season prior to that finale, and five of those six games saw at least seven goals scored. Furthermore, higher scoring games increase the probability of a team winning by more than a goal, and the Penguins are winning by an average of +1.56 goals this post-season. Thus, in addition to the Overs, the Pittsburgh Puck Lines may also be worth a look.

Detroit Red Wings vs. Dallas Stars: Red Wings games are averaging 5.90 goals this post-season, and they are winning their games by a very impressive average margin of +1.70 goals per game. So the question is, will their games be as high scoring vs. a Stars team whose playoff games are averaging just 4.92 goals? That is open for debate, as it was the Under that went 2-1-1 in the four regular season meetings. The lone Over did come the last time the clubs met though, in a 5-3 Detroit victory in March. Also, the Red Wings are just steamrolling their opponents right now, scoring four or more goals in all four games of their sweep of the Avalanche, culminating with an 8-2 wipeout on the road at Colorado in Game 4.

Conclusion: Unlike past playoffs, when we would go nowhere near the Overs, we may have no choice but to recommend them quite often in the coming weeks.

Well here we are, our first boat incident of the 2008-09 season starring Captain Cedric Benson, the incumbent Chicago running-back who has tallied 1,529 total rushing yards…in three online betting seasons. If you’re one of the fools that falls for Benson in fantasy football drafts, then you know exactly how frustrating watching him fumble and bumble his way to a two-yard gain was.

And his latest brush with the law isn’t only concerning to his fantasy football backers, it’s essential to pegging how the Bears will do in the 2008-09 season. Is there any hope for the Bears online football betting faithful? Well let’s put it this way – they drafted Matt Forte out of Tulane in the second-round. The rap on Forte is that, despite his name, he can’t stay healthy. That rumbling sound you hear isn’t Forte hitting the pads, nor is it Benson hitting a case of Coors Light. It’s the Bears betting bandwagon unloading in a swift hurry.

 The Bears were at least smart enough to draft Chris Williams at offensive-tackle with the fourteenth overall pick, adding a strong athlete to an offensive line that couldn’t block an empty wheel barrow with no driver. Is Williams going to be the fix-it-all solution to Chicago’s woes? Not even close.

We’re talking about a team whose best quarterback last year, Brian Griese (yes, he’s still alive), had a 75.6 quarterback rating. All three active quarterbacks totaled 17 touchdowns, compared to 21 interceptions. So instead of finding a passer in free-agency, or in the draft, they just threw their hands up in the air and just gave the ball back to Rex Grossman. That’s taking two steps back without taking a step forward, but then tripping over yourself and falling down the stairs.

To make matters infinitely worse, the Bears let Bernard Berrian walk to the Vikings through free-agency. I repeat: they let him walk to a division rival. Now they are stuck with Brandon Lloyd, Marcus Monk, Earl Bennett and Marty Booker. At the very least, the Bears fans can dust off their Marty Booker jerseys. Bennett and Monk both have the ability to climb the ladder, but the learning curve at wide-receiver is immense and there’s a reason that teams balked at Bennett in the third and Monk dropped to the seventh.

This kind of “progress” coming from a team that had 210.1 receiving yards per game, ranking them 15th in the league. Not only did they not improve at quarterback, they lost their best weapon in Berrian and let him go to a division rival.

Green Bay is a bit of an unknown element, while Detroit is surely to rebound from a completely morbid second-half last season. Minnesota is undoubtedly the NFC North favorite in our NFL futures. That leaves Chicago, with a pissed off Brian Urlacher, a proven misery at quarterback, no proven scoring threats in any of the important offensive positions, and the supposed future of the franchise sinking this ship deep in to the oblivion of NFL obscurity. Article Courtesy of Tim Furius of Betus Online Sportsbook

Ted Sevransky is Professional Sports Handicapper at Touthouse.com - Click Here to Purchase His Betting Advice

Orlando @ Detroit
The Magic went 27-14 SU on the road this year, the second best road record in the entire NBA. They covered the spread at a 66% clip on the highway, finishing the regular season as the second best ATS team in the league. They proved their ability to win tight games in pressure packed situations in hostile environments, outscoring Toronto 12-2 down the stretch of their crucial Game 4 win against the Raptors. And, with all apologies to LeBron James, Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant, Orlando’s Dwight Howard has arguably been the single most unstoppable force so far in the postseason. The Magic blew out the Pistons in their most recent meeting at Detroit, a 103-85 domination right after the All Star break, and the road team has covered the spread at a 15-5-3 clip over the last 23 meetings between these two teams. Orlando is also the more rested squad – Detroit played on Thursday, needing six games to close out the 76ers, while the Magic eliminated Toronto in five games, resting since their clincher on Monday. But the playoff tested Pistons swept this same Orlando team out of the playoffs last year. And, when it comes to playoff level defensive intensity, the Pistons enjoy an enormous edge, holding defensive matchup advantages at nearly every position.

New Orleans @ San Antonio
It’s hard to assess which team holds the most value here, as both of these squads have been making piles of money for those who supported them. The defending champs have now won four of their last five road games in the postseason and nine of their last twelve on the highway dating back to last season. In fact, San Antonio is now 19-5 SU, 16-6-2 ATS in their last 24 playoff games, the single most undervalued team in the postseason betting marketplace. But no NBA team has been more undervalued than the New Orleans Hornets in 2008. Byron Scott’s squad is 21-7 ATS in their last 28 home games; 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games overall, an extended run of pointspread excellence. The two teams split their four regular season meetings, with each team winning and covering once at home and once on their opponent’s home floor. Even the series price tells us to expect an extremely competitive series of games, with lower seeded San Antonio only the slightest of favorites at -130.

Atlanta @ Boston
If the old adage about a playoff series not really beginning until the road team wins a game is true, this playoff series hasn’t begun yet. Obviously, that’s not the case, as the single biggest favorite in the first round is the only first round series to reach a Game 7. That’s great for TV ratings, bad for the Celtics. Boston was an 80-1 favorite prior to the start of the series; higher than that following their first two blowout wins at home. And despite being unable to win a game in Atlanta, the Celtics are still prohibitive favorites to win Game 7 – they’ve dominated all three previous home games, winning by an average margin of 22 points per game, covering the spread in all three tries. That being said, the Celtics can’t be comfortable with any lead, having blown double digit leads twice in the last three games; losers of three of the last four in the series. And the upstart Hawks have no pressure here since nobody expects them to win – all the pressure to succeed is on the home team with the best regular season record in the league. But let’s not forget how one sided all three previous games at Boston have been in this series – the Celtics outscored the Hawks in every single quarter of those contests!

Utah @ Los Angeles
The Jazz have less than 48 hours of turnaround time following their Game 6 victory over Houston to get prepared for the Lakers. That stands in sharp contrast with LA, the only team to pull off a first round sweep, winning and covering the spread in all four games against the Nuggets, then enjoying the benefits of a full five day layoff. The Lakers won and covered the spread in three of the four regular season meetings between these two teams, earning double digit victories in both home games against the Jazz: 119-109 and 123-109, each game flying Over the total. Don’t put too much emphasis on those regular season games, however – three of the four meetings between the two teams came in the first two months of the season, when Utah was playing mediocre basketball, going 16-16 SU in their first 32 games of the season, before the trade for key reserve Kyle Korver seemed to spark their season. LA was a sub .500 team against the spread at home this year, while Utah’s road struggles have been well documented: 17-24 ATS on the highway during the regular season, although they did win and cover two out of three at Houston in the first round.

Ted Sevransky is a Professional Sports Handicappers and One of the Most Recognized Arena Football Experts Known - Click Here to Buy Ted’s Expert Sports Betting Advice

The single biggest turnaround in the AFL this season has come from the New York Dragons. The Dragons went 1-4 to begin the season, with starting quarterback Aaron Garcia languishing on the sidelines in street clothes. Since Garcia returned to health, the Dragons have reeled off four straight wins and covers. But it’s been much more than Garcia – the Dragons defense has keyed their turnaround, holding each of their last five opponents to 47 points or less, the best ‘D’ in the league during that span.

Dragons head coach Weylan Harding: “The guys are getting a sense of themselves and their potential. All of the guys are starting to believe in each other and believe in what we have here. That’s the product of their hard work. The scariest thing is that we can still be so much better. They have a world of potential.” Quarterback Aaron Garcia: “The guys have really stepped up and done a great job… In football terms, every game is important. We’re chasing two teams in our division that are undefeated. We have to keep fighting and keep pushing to get up to the top.”

The Tampa Bay Storm snapped their five game losing streak with an impressive win on the road in the Jungle at Orlando last week. After going an AFL record 21 quarters (more than five full games) without forcing a single turnover, the Storm recovered three fumbles and picked off two Predators passes. Watch out for the Storm down the stretch. Last year, Tampa Bay started 1-6, but reeled off eight victories in their final nine games of the regular season (7-2 ATS) to make the playoffs.

Tampa Bay head coach Tim Marcum gave me my favorite quote of the year, following the win. The Storm had been in control of the game, but the Predators scored a touchdown with under three minutes to go to cut the deficit to seven. Then, they recovered an onside kick, giving them a chance to tie the game or take the lead. Marcum: “I was thinking, ‘Well, here we go again.’ It’s kind of like wiping your butt with a bicycle tire. The stuff just keeps coming around. Except this time we made a change. We made a play.” Kind of like wiping your butt with a bicycle tire – thanks for the laugh, Tim!

The Utah Blaze dropped to 0-9 with a loss at New Orleans (1-7-1 ATS) but embattled head coach Danny White hasn’t lost his cool. White: “That’s what we have to try to do now, is keep the morale up, keep the chemistry going with rally caps and whatever we have to do to keep from going out on the field expecting something bad to happen.”

Blaze defensive back Damon Mason, an 11-year veteran said he has been amazed at how the even-keeled the coaching staff has remained while suffering loss after loss. Mason played for volatile Orlando coach Jay Gruden for six years and said the atmosphere in Salt Lake City has been entirely different. “You imagine the things you would hear from a guy like Jay Gruden with (winless) team. So, I commend Coach White and the way he has handled things. He comes in with a smile every day. . . You talk about being a pro. . . He’s not walking around telling guys they are going to be fired. That’s a good thing.”

Last year, the San Jose Sabercats were mediocre at best through the first half of the season, just 3-3 after six games. Then, the Sabercats got hot, reeling off ten straight wins to close out the regular season and three wins in the playoffs to win the Arena Bowl title. The Sabercats spent the first seven weeks of this season looking mediocre at best, just 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS, losing twice on one of the strongest home fields in the league. But if the last two weeks are any indication, Darren Arbet’s squad looks poised for another second half turnaround.

The Sabercats scored a season high 70 points against LA this past weekend, their highest point total of the year, and the first game all season where they didn’t commit a single turnover. But it’s the San Jose defense that has opposing teams running scared right now. Two weeks ago, San Jose recovered three fumbles, notched two sacks and got an interception while holding Utah to a season low 212 yards and 40 points. The ‘D’ was every bit as good this past weekend, forcing five turnovers against LA in their 28 point victory over the Avengers.

The most disappointing team in the AFL this year has to be the Georgia Force , a squad that went 14-2 last year and made it to the National Conference championship game. At 3-5, off back-2-back losses, head coach Doug Plank is searching for answers. “We’re just not playing very well right now… The turnover ratio is not in our favor. Our scoring is down, and what’s really hurting us right now is our kick coverage. … The lack of consistency in our receiving corps and defensive backs are hurting our production right now…. This one (loss to Arizona) could not be blamed on offense, defense or special teams. Every aspect of our team contributed to this loss.”

Georgia has had numerous injuries to their receiving corps and their secondary since the start of the season. Star receiver Troy Bergeron did not play at Arizona due to his deep thigh bruise, and defensive back Willie Gary also was out with a thigh injury. Both are question marks for Saturday night’s home game against New Orleans. Plank: “It’s been kind of musical chairs back there (in the secondary). We want to get three guys back there and try to simplify things - eliminate the thought process and let those guys go out and play…. We haven’t really seen a healthy Troy Bergeron this season. We almost plan on not having him [Saturday]. That way, we won’t be disappointed.”

Last, but not least, don’t ever be fooled by AFL passing yardage statistics – it’s an irrelevant stat in this league. I use QB rating and touchdowns per ‘meaningful’ possessions as a much better indicator of offensive capabilities. The numbers don’t lie. Four AFL quarterbacks threw for more than 300 yards last week: Joe Germaine (Utah), Chris Greisen (Georgia), John Dutton (Colorado) and D Bryant (Kansas City). Those four teams went 0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS….

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We cashed a ‘tap-in’ winner Saturday on the Nuggets/LA Lakers game ‘under’ the total of 230, as the Lakers embarrassed the Nuggets in Denver 102-84. That runs our playoff record to 4-2 and a 10-3 run overall including the last week of the NBA regular season. With over 60% success this season in the NBA, we’ll look for more ‘green’ today with some solid playoff situations. And with games 5-6-7 in some remaining series in round 1, we’ll have additional positive profiles that have proven profitable in the NBA playoffs.  Once we get to round 2 in the Western Conference with some of these ‘Class A’ match-ups, we’ll ’shoot’ for even more ‘green’ with our proven profitable playoff plays.

With a 3-0 series lead, the Lakers can sweep Denver out of the playoffs and get the rumblings rolling in Denver for even more coach Karl questioning. Hardly an inspired effort from the Nuggets on their home floor after trailing the series 2-0. And the post-game comments really showed Denver’s frustration. “We quit,” Carmelo Anthony said. “Everybody, from the coaches to the players. And I said it. And I’m not pointing the fingers at anybody because we all sucked. I didn’t play worth a damn tonight.” Anthony continued, “These last three games, we haven’t just been losing, we’ve been getting the (expletive) beat out of us.” Allan Iverson played just one minute in the fourth quarter and was personally insulted and ‘shocked’ at coach Karl’s decision. “I’ve been in a lot of playoff series,” Iverson said, “and I don’t think I’ve ever been this frustrated.”

From a historical perspective, don’t expect Denver to turn it around in an elimination Game 4. NBA playoff teams that lead a series 3-0 are a profitable play in Game 4, getting the money at approx. a 60% clip. Also, these games have gone ‘over’ the total at a profitable rate since 2003 when a team leads a series 3-0. When the team leading the series 3-0 is a home favorite or a road ‘Dog, we have an even stronger situation to support with the road underdog proving to be especially profitable when going for the series sweep. Yes, that situation pops today on the San Antonio Spurs +4 at Phoenix.

Recent 3-0 series situations showed the Detroit Pistons up 3-0 at Orlando in last years opening round, and the Pistons won Game 4 by a 97-93 score but just failed to cover as 4.5 favorites. The next series, Detroit led Chicago 3-0, but were beaten badly in Game 4 at Chicago as a 3-point favorite. Notice the line adjustment in both situations last year with Detroit leading 3-0. The Pistons were a 2.5 favorite in Game 3 at Orlando and won/covered. Then the Pistons were pushed to a 4.5 favorite and won but just failed to cover. In Game 3 at Chicago and leading the series 2-0, Detroit was a 2.5 underdog and won outright, but then became a 3-point favorite and lost big in Game 4, and then lost again as an 8-point home favorite in Game 5. However, remember that Chicago was up 3-0 in their opening series last year against the defending NBA Champs Miami Heat. In Game 4 at Miami, the Bulls eliminated the Heat 92-79 as a 4.5 underdog. The LA Lakers have gone from a 1-point underdog in game 3 to a 4.5 favorite in game 4. I won’t be ‘laying it’ with the Lakers and the line move, but I cannot support the Nuggets who hardly appear ready to rally.

Many people including myself thought the Spurs - Suns series would be one of the best of the first round. Instead, Phoenix is ’soul-searching’ and trying to find an answer for San Antonio’s pick-and-roll set. With Tony Parker piling up a career-high 41 points in game 3 and ‘chippin-in’ 12 assists, it appears the Suns have nobody capable of slowing him down after using Steve Nash, Boris Diaw and Grant Hill on him during game 3. Hill is doubtful for game 4 with abdominal and groin injuries, although he fought through them to play in games 2 and 3.

While I’m not convinced that San Antonio will make it back to the NBA Finals, it’s hard to argue with their performance against Phoenix and the psychological edge they now hold. Phoenix looked so solid in game 1, but couldn’t close the deal before losing in double OT and now must be wondering what it will take to beat the defending champs. San Antonio was an ordinary offensive team this season, and that’s being kind. The Spurs averaged just 95 ppg, no. 28 in the league. Yet San Antonio shot 56% and scored 115 points on the road against a top team in Phoenix with the Suns desperate and seemingly in a spot where their intensity would be the greatest facing a Spurs team that was just 3-11 SU on the road against West playoff teams. Phoenix shot a league-best 50% on their home floor this season, and while they hit 49% in game 3, their defense never showed. Phoenix has allowed the Spurs to score over 100 points and shoot better than 48% in all three contests. With Phoenix unable to deliver or recover during game 3 in desperation mode, it will come as no surprise if the ‘Sun’ doesn’t shine today and the Spurs sweep the series.

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Some folks looked at the Orlando Magic in Game 3 and thought, “A three point dog? They just whipped Toronto twice!” And the same was true for the Cavaliers/Wizards Game 3. “Cleveland is a 4-point dog? After dismantling the Wizards in Games 1 and 2?” The majority of bettors, however, didn’t take the bait. The money came in on the home teams with the Raptors closing as a 4-point favorite and the Wizards bet up to five and 5½.

Ignoring matchup angles, coaching and emotion for a moment, the difference was simply home court. Cleveland shot 52% in Game 2, winning by 30 points. Their defense was top notch, holding the Wizards to 86 points in each of the first two games. Dominance by the defending Eastern Conference champs! Then in Game 3, they looked like Eastern Conference chumps, losing at Washington 108-72.

The difference? Home court. The Wizards set a league record for largest margin of victory after losing by 30 or more points in the previous game. Go figure. After shooting 37% and 40% in the first two games, Washington shot 52% in Game 3. The first half was when the Cavs’ defense, which led them in the first two games of this series, failed miserably. The Wizards made uncontested jump shots, got free passes to the basket and scored 18 points off Cavs’ turnovers. ‘We feed off our crowd when we’re at home because of the atmosphere and the intensity,’ Daniel Gibson said. ‘They fed off their crowd and did exactly what they needed to do.’

Another factor added to home court to take into account this time of the season is desperation. Teams down 2-0 can’t afford a loss and often (not always!) play with immense intensity. In my pregame analysis of the Game 3 contest I wrote, “Washington is down 0-2, back on their home floor for a must-win game, I expect the Wizards to be at their very best. While LeBron James is obviously the best player on the floor, when playing their game, with a lineup that features Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler and Gilbert Arenas, the Wizards have the more complete team. More often that not, they do manage to ‘play their game’ at home, as they’ve won four straight (and eight of 10) games here. Note that each of those four victories came by a minimum of seven points and by average of nearly 13.

“The Wizards are 8-2 ATS when playing with two day’s rest in between games and have shown an ability to bounce back from a big loss, going 12-7 ATS after a double-digit loss this season. Conversely, the Cavs are just 2-8 ATS when coming off a double-digit victory. Note that the Cavs were below .500 on the road and that they finished the season with just three wins their last dozen games away from Cleveland. The Wizards won both meetings here this season, with the wins coming by an average of 10.5 points. Look for them to snap their playoff losing streak against the Cavs, covering the relatively small number along the way.”

While it hasn’t been a particularly strong start to the playoffs (we’ve got a long way to go!) that particular selection, my “Main Event,” resulted in an easy winner, as the Wizards rolled. Remember that the Cavaliers have won only three games on the road since the blockbuster trade in February: against the lowly Charlotte Bobcats, New York Knicks and a controversial win in Philadelphia on April 14. This Cleveland squad is one team at home but often a very different group away. “The Wizards were the aggressors,” Cleveland coach Mike Brown said. “They came out with the right mind-set. They got energized and juiced by the crowd.”

North of the border the Raptors were staring at a 0-2 deficit when Orlando came to town, a team with sizzling 27-14 road record. Didn’t matter, as the Raptors won and covered with ease, 108-94. Toronto has now won eight of its last nine games against the Magic in its building. A re-energized T.J. Ford was brilliant in an 18-point first half, Jose Calderon shredded the Magic for 18 points and 13 rebounds and the Raptors came out swinging and never took a step back.

Home teams went 2-1 SU/ATS again last night, with both Dallas and Philadelphia protecting their homecourts. The Suns, on the other hand, got blown out by the Spurs, falling to 0-3. They are now in serious trouble. I split with my sides (won with Dallas lost with Phoenix) yesterday but unfortunately came up short with my lone total selection, rather than sticking with my original idea of backing all three home teams.

Home teams have now won 18 of the first 23 playoff games. That even includes the Jazz/Rockets series, where the visiting team won the first 3 games. Still, the home team started 16-7 against the spread. Toronto’s Jamario Moon said after the Game 3 win, “I didn’t know this place could get this loud. I could feel the court shaking a little bit.” Toronto coach Sam Mitchell added, “Playing in front of the home fans makes you keep digging a little deeper, no matter how tired you get.”

While visiting teams should eventually start to improve their performance at the betting window, make sure to never underestimate the power of homecourt. Enjoy the games and best of luck with all your wagers this weekend…Ben Burns