Article Courtesy of Fairway Jay, A Professional College Football Handicapper Featured on Touthouse.com. If you are interested in betting football this college season or are looking for college football handicapping info be sure to check out Fairway Jay’s College Football Picks

This past summer I met the editor of Rounder Magazine at the World Series of Poker in Las Vegas, and he asked me if I would write a monthly sports-related column for his magazine. Pick up a copy when you have a chance, as the poker content and my sports handicapping articles offer a pretty good read. Oh, and the cover shots and pictorials of the lovely ladies are pretty good too…Rounder is in fact a lifestyle magazine! I chipped-in some NFL preseason betting thoughts for the August issue, and some of the content below appears in the upcoming September issue. After nailing a side and total winner in the Sunday night Colorado – Colorado State contest, we’re off to a solid and steady start with a 4-1 mark in college football including 3-0 on our featured Big Drive plays.

College football kicked off Labor Day weekend, and for the hundreds of ‘Fairway Followers’ and personal clients, it was a birdie on opening night as we delivered the green with South Carolina’s big 34-0 shutout over North Carolina State. I provided a full analysis of that contest and you can review the write-up in my College Football Kickoff blog dated August 28th at sportsmemo.com. Essentially, I noted that the key to So. Carolina’s margin victory would be their veteran and versatile defense that featured returning starters at every position and would be facing a stagnant, one-dimensional NC State offense with a redshirt freshman quarterback making his first start.

For good measure, we chipped-in another dominating win with Missouri’s beating of Illinois 52-42 in a contest not as close as the final score indicates. Missouri’s potent spread offense led by senior quarterback Chase Daniel and explosive wide receiver/kick returner Jeremy Maclin rolled up over 560 yards total offense including over 200 yards rushing late into the third quarter in building a 45-20 lead. They controlled the line of scrimmage on offense and the Illinois defense could not stop Missouri, as the Tigers only stopped themselves when they failed to score. Missouri actually held Illinois to negative nine (-9) yards rushing in the first half and the Tigers held a significant ground game edge for the contest (Missouri 254 – 6.9 yards-per-rush / Illinois 78 – 2.2 yards-per-rush). Missouri’s defense got soft in the secondary and allowed Illinois to come back late, however Missouri’s domination at the line of scrimmage on offense prevailed. If you read my thoughts below on controlling the line of scrimmage and review the box scores from week 1 college football, you’ll see the successful correlation of a strong running game to covering the point spread.

Handicapping early season college football is in no small part about looking for the all important experience edge. And while returning starters is an important part of that early season component, too many handicappers and bettors still fail to compare the experience edge with the point spread to determine if there is enough ‘value’ in the price. Determining that value is based on a number of factors including experience edge, player personnel and match-ups, injuries, coaching, schemes, scheduling, and motivation. But with fast-changing early season market moves by the linemaker, the ‘sharp’ bettor understands the importance of getting a good number. If you want to be a successful and profitable sports bettor, then understanding ‘value’ is of utmost importance in handicapping the games.

While it’s nice to win an early ‘pot’ like we did with South Carolina, the football season should be addressed in similar ways to a poker tournament. Use selective aggression when betting on games. Do your homework and know your ‘opponent’. Keep your emotions in check and manage your bankroll just like you would manage your ‘chip’ stack. Don’t go ‘all-in’ in the opening few weeks, as losing too many ‘big bets’ will prove costly and force you to the ‘rail’ sooner than you planned. If you fail to manage your bankroll and lose too many of your ‘chips’ early in the football season, you’ll be forced to be more conservative and play a ‘short stack’. This will leave you with less ‘chips’ to make consistently stronger wagers as you gather more information and gain more confidence as the season progresses.

Now, if you begin the season prepared and have the past experience to understand early season football and some of the dynamics and strengths that put the edges and percentages in your favor, then the astute handicapper and bettor can take advantage of some of the early season lines and totals posted by the linemaker. Those novice handicappers and bettors that rely on the ‘talking heads’ on ESPN, FOX or other major networks, along with ‘hyped’ information from unreliable sources will find themselves ‘busted’ and wondering what happened. Using some of the meaningless past ‘trends’, relying on your ‘hunches’ or falling for the great performances on national TV and betting on those teams the next few weeks without keeping line value, experience and match-ups in mind will also prove costly.

While looking at important early season factors like returning starters, quarterback experience, defensive strength, and proven coaches and schemes, know that the offensive line play and experience at those positions is critical for success. Six teams in major college football return all five offensive line starters this season: Ball State, Iowa, Penn State, Temple, West Virginia and Wyoming. Perhaps it’s no coincidence that these teams had success on opening weekend. I would also add Tennessee to that group, as they have four full returning starters along the offensive line plus an additional player that started the final six games for the Volunteers last season. Unfortunately, Tennessee came up short and lost to UCLA 27-24 in overtime in one of the more entertaining games of the weekend on Monday night. However, that contest will make my list of misleading finals and scores, as Tennessee had the dominating rushing advantage (178-28) and intercepted four UCLA quarterback passes in the first half, but managed to lose the contest. Have to question head coach Phillip Fulmer and his defensive staff for their decisions to play off the UCLA receivers in the second half after such QB and passing game struggles by the Bruins in the first half.

Anyway, when you research and review college football games, instead of watching the ESPN highlight shows and reading the Associated Press (AP) top 25 or listening to the ‘talking heads’ tell you how great some of the skill players are, dig into the box scores and determine which teams show strength at the point of attack. It should be no surprise that on the opening Thursday and Friday of this college football season, seven of the eight teams that controlled the line of scrimmage and dominated in the running game not only won the games but also covered the point spread.

Supporting teams that can run the football successfully and also stop the run will go a long way in building your bankroll. Keep that in mind as the season progresses, and if you don’t have the time, energy or experience to produce profits and pick winners, then contact me and we’ll beat the game and get the green together.