Matt Fargo’s MLB Pick: Rays vs. Astros Betting Prediction: July 4th 2013
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros
Prediction: Houston +146 odds (July 4th 2013)
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This is a Free Play on the Houston Astros as they try and salvage the series split against the Tampa Bay Rays Thursday afternoon.
The Astros broke through with a big win last night as they snapped a five-game losing skid with their 4-1 victory over Tampa Bay. I feel they carry that over into Thursday in what is another favorable pitching matchup. Last night was just their 17th home win however it is only three fewer than what the Rays have on the road yet we are catching a solid underdog price. Jordan Lyles gets the ball for Houston and he will be looking to snap a two-game non-quality start streak. Prior to that, he was outstanding. He had given up two runs or fewer in all of his previous seven starts while posting a 1.61 ERA over that stretch. Tampa Bay is hitting just .244 against right-handed pitching and Lyles is in a great bounceback spot here. Tampa Bay had its four-game winning streak snapped and after scoring 20 runs in the first two games of this series, it was held to just one run last night. Low scoring games have been contagious for the Rays and that is a big reason for their struggles. Going back, they are 2-5 in their last seven games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. We won with Christopher Archer in his last game but that was at home against Justin Verlander but we were getting exceptional value there. Archer pitched a decent game but was far from outstanding and now he is a road favorite for just the second time in his career. He lost that first one last season and this is by far the biggest number of the two. Tampa Bay is averaging only 1.83 rpg in his six starts including a mere 1.33 rpg in three road starts. Play (918) Houston Astros