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MLB Odds & Baseball Betting Picks: July 10th 2008

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals u7.5 (-125) MLB Odds – Thu July 10 ’08 7:10p
There are so many factors pointing to the Under in this contest between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Washington Nationals that we are not quite sure where to begin. Well, let us start with the offenses. The Nationals are batting just .231 as a team overall and .227 vs. right-handers here at home this season. They are averaging only 3.40 runs per game over the last 10 games. The Diamondbacks are actually averaging less runs over this same span at 3.20, and Arizona has scored three runs or less in five straight games and two runs or less in four of those contests. As for the starting pitchers, Danny Haren has pitched brilliantly in his first year in the desert, and he would be much better than 8-5 with any run support. He has a 2.83 ERA and an outstanding 0.98 WHIP in 117.2 innings. Likewise, Jason Bergmann has pitched much better than his 1-6 record would indicate, and he has a 1/80 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in his last three starts. Looking at how each starter has done against their opponents tonight, Haren tossed seven scoreless innings at the Nationals while allowing just four hits in his only other start against them this year. Bergmann was not quite that good in his only start vs. Arizona, but he was not terrible either allowing four total runs in a Complete Game 4-0 loss. Looking at the home/away team tendencies for each team, the Under is 27-18 in Washington home games with the Nationals averaging 3.35 runs in this stadium. Similarly, the Under is 24-17 in Arizona road games, with the D-Backs averaging 3.64 runs in those contests. Finally, looking at the head-to-head history, the Under is 4-1 in all meetings this season including a perfect 4-0 in the last four encounters, and the Under is also 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Washington. The last four meetings this season have averaged a lowly 4.00 combined runs per game, all of them ending in shutouts for one of the teams! MLB Free Pick: Diamondbacks, Nationals Under 7.5 (-125)
Florida Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers u8.5 (-110) MLB Odds – Thu July 10 ’08 10:10p
This game between the Florida Marlins and the Los Angeles Dodgers marks the return of Josh Johnson to the Florida rotation. Remember that Johnson was a very highly regarded prospect, and he certainly looked the part in his rookie year in 2006, going 11-5 with an excellent 3.03 ERA in 24 starts. However, some nerve irritation in his right arm led him to have Tommy John surgery, killing the 2007 season. Now there have been many stories of pitchers coming back stronger after this surgery lately, so Johnson could be a staple in the rotation for years to come. The Dodgers counter with veteran Chan Ho Park, who has been surprisingly effective this season with a 2.36 ERA in 61 innings. Park has yet to allow more than one earned run in any of his four starts, and he has allowed a grand total of one run and seven hits in 12 innings over his last two outings. Throw in the fact that Dodger home games are averaging a combined 7.20 runs per game this year and the ball does not carry well at night here, and runs should be hard to come by tonight. MLB Free Pick: Marlins, Dodgers Under 8.5 (-110)

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