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Posts Tagged ‘Baylor Bears Predictions’

Motel 6 Cactus Bowl: Baylor vs. Boise State Point Spread Pick: December 27th 2016

Baylor Bears vs. Boise State Broncos
Bowl Game Betting Pick: Baylor +7.5 points (December 27th 2016)

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Baylor Bears right now. They have lost six straight games coming into the postseason. Jim Grobe is coaching his last game here as he is a lame duck. It will be Matt Rhule coming in from Temple to try and turn the program around next year. I think this awful public perception of this team is providing us some line value with this 7.5-point spread.

Player for player, Baylor is the more talented team in this matchup. And while they lost their final six games, the schedule was extremely tough, and they weren’t overwhelmed aside from the loss to TCU. They also lost to the likes of West Virginia, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Texas during that six-game skid with four of the losses coming on the road.

But Baylor actually outgained two of those six opponents, and they were outgained by only 32 yards by Texas Tech, by 46 yards by Kansas State and by 49 yards by Oklahoma. That game against Oklahoma was much closer than the 24-45 final score, and it showed they could play with a top team. The 14-17 loss to WVU as 17-point road dogs in the finale also showed that the Bears have not quit.

Star wide receiver KD Cannon, who has 73 receptions for 989 yards and 11 touchdowns this year, has actually guaranteed a victory in this game. I like that mindset, and it shows that they care. Freshman QB Zach Smith was put into a tough spot but has held up well with 1,151 yards and 10 touchdowns against six interceptions down the stretch against that tough schedule.

“I’m very excited for our players to have an opportunity to play in the Cactus Bowl against a great football team in Boise State,” Grobe told reporters. “I think our guys are looking forward to coaching these kids and getting them ready for a bowl game. So I feel good about playing in a bowl game. This is going to be it for me, so I’d like to win it for sure.”

Boise State’s 10-2 record is certainly inflated due to playing such a soft schedule. They lost to both Wyoming and Air Force. Their best win was a 31-28 victory over Washington State as 13-point favorites. They had so many shaky efforts in victory, including a 5-point win over Colorado State as 28-point favorites and a 1-point win over BYU as 7-point favorites. The Broncos went just 3-9 ATS in their 12 games this year, time and time again being overvalued.

The Broncos have been susceptible to the run this season, giving up 180 yards per game and 4.4 per carry. Boise State is 3-12 ATS versus good rushing teams who average 4.75 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons. Baylor averages 250 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  The Bears rank 5th nationally in total offense at 523.3 yards per game as well. They have a three-headed attack at running back, led by Terence Williams (945 yards, 11 TD, 5.9/carry).

The general public thought Baylor didn’t want to be in the bowl last year against North Carolina. But that was far from the case as the Bears racked up 756 total yards in a 49-38 win as 3-point dogs against the Tar Heels. They rushed for 645 yards in that game alone, and they should have plenty of success on the ground against Boise State in this one as well.  Bet Baylor in the Cactus Bowl Tuesday.

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Baylor vs. Texas Football Betting Prediction from Jimmy Boyd: October 29th 2016

BAYLOR VS. TEXAS BETTINGBaylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns
Football Betting Prediction: Baylor -3.5 points (October 29th 2016)

I just don’t trust the Longhorns in this spot. I believe the books are being cautious with Baylor given their easy schedule. I know they struggled in their last road game at ISU, but they aren’t going to overlook Texas in this spot.

The Bears are going to come into this one with a chip on their shoulder after last year’s ugly loss. Keep in mind that Texas shutout Baylor 20-0 in the 1st half. It’s the only time the Bears failed to score in the 1st half of a game since 2011. What’s impressive is they almost came back and won, despite turning it over 4 times. Note they did finish with a 479-307 edge in total yards.

You also have to keep in mind that was the final game of the regular season. Oklahoma had already wrapped up the Big 12 title and there was nothing left for Baylor to play for.

Another key factor here is that the Bears catch Texas off a bye week. Their second bye in the last 3 weeks, as they also had one before playing Kansas. This team is fresh and well prepared for what Texas has to offer. Note that the Bears are 6-1 in their last 7 off a bye. At the same time, Texas is coming off a very physical game against Kansas State.

We have seen the Longhorns defense get torched on a regular basis this season. I’m not sure what makes anyone thing Baylor isn’t going to expose them as well. Texas enters with the 102nd ranked pass defense in the country, giving up 263.1 ypg. They are also allowing a staggering 8.7 yards/pass attempt. The Bears are averaging 266.3 ypg through the air and 8 yards per attempt.

Another thing I like with Baylor is the fact they aren’t getting any public attention. Despite the fact that they haven’t lost a game and are ranked in the Top 10. I think we see them come out 100% locked in and wouldn’t be surprised if this turned into a blowout. Take Baylor!

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Football Pick: Baylor vs. Iowa State Point Spread Pick from Alex Smart: October 1st 2016

BAYLOR VS. IOWA STATE BETTINGBaylor Bears vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Point Spread Pick: Baylor -16.5 points (October 1st 2016)

Baylor despite of a summer of dealing with scandals has shown that the talent base on the field is still of a very high quality and must be respected, as was evident in a DD victory vs Oklahoma State last week. The Bears have won their first four games by an average of 28.5 points per game. Meanwhile, Iowa State despite of being perceived as much improved over last season, and off a win of their own last week, are still quite literally over matched in all the key aspects of this game. Baylor defense is allowing just 310.0 total yards per game this season ranking 22nd in FBS. Baylor secondary is allowing just 142.5 yards per game through the air this season, seventh best ranking in the FBS and should make Iowa State QB duo of Joel Lanning and Jacob Park afternoon a living nightmare.

Iowa State in their L/79 games against a top level team with a .750 win percentage or better like Baylor have seen their games decided by an average of 39.6 -18 score.

The last time Baylor visited Iowa State they took a 49-28 decision in 2014, and I am betting on a similar result this time around.

Projected score: Baylor 47 Iowa State 20

Play and lay it with Baylor

Who to bet on? Baylor vs. Rice Football Pick: Bet the Bears -32 and the ‘Under’ 66.5 points on September 16th 2016

BAYLOR VS. RICE BETTING PICKBaylor Bears vs. Rice Owls – 8:00pm ET September 16th 2016

Point Spread: Baylor is a 32 point favorite over rice this evening and the over/under for this game is set at 66.5 points.

Public Perception: 75% of the betting public are wagering on the Baylor Bears and 71% believe this game will be high scoring affair and go over the betting total of 66.5 points.

Check out why Brandon Shively thinks the ‘Under’ is right way to go tonight.

Past Meetings: These two teams took to the field last year. Baylor was a 33 point chalk in that game and the over/under was 74 points. The Bears easily covered the spread and the game went over the posted total. Final Score: Baylor 70 Rice 17

Side Betting Trends: Rice is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Rice is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf. Rice is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Rice is 0-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Baylor is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. CUSA. Baylor is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Baylor is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games on fieldturf. Baylor is 26-10 ATS in their last 36 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.


Over/Under Betting Trends: The under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-1 in Bears last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games following a straight up win. The over is 4-1-1 in Bears last 6 vs. CUSA. The under is 4-0 in Owls last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 5-0 in Owls last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The under is 6-1 in Owls last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The over is 4-1 in Owls last 5 non-conference games.

Head-to-Head Betting Trends: Baylor is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Betting Pick: Baylor Bears -32
Over-Under Pick: Under 66.5 points

North Carolina vs. Baylor Russell Athletic Bowl Over-Under & Point Spread Pick: December 29th 2015


Russell Athletic Bowl – North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Baylor Bears – 5:30pm ET December 29th 2015
Courtesy of

Point Spread: North Carolina is a 1 point favorite against Baylor in this years Russell Athletic Bowl. The over/under betting total is set at 70 points.

Records: North Carolina is 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS this season with an over/under record of 7-6. Baylor is 9-3 SU and 5-6 ATS this season with an over/under record of 7-5.

Public Perception: As of 2:30pm ET, 68% of the wagering public is betting that North Carolina will cover the point spread against Baylor.

Recent Meetings: There are no recent meeting between these two teams.

Notable Betting Trends: Baylor is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 contests after putting up more than 450 total yards of offense in their previous game. Baylor is 17-6 in their last 23 games after keeping their opponent to less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. North Carolina is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after letting their opponent in their previous game pass for more than 280 yards. The over is 4-1 in North Carolina’s last 5 games overall. The over is 5-0 in Baylor’s last 5 neutral site games as well as 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after putting up over 450 yards of total offense.

Point Spread Pick: Baylor Bears +1
Over-Under Pick: Over 70 points

Texas vs. Baylor Football Point Spread & Over-Under Pick: December 5th 2015


Texas Longhorns vs. Baylor Bears – 12:00pm ET December 5th 2015
Courtesy of

Point Spread: The Baylor Bears are a 20.5 point favorite over the Texas Longhorns. The over/under for this game is currently at 68.5 points.

Records: This season, the Texas Longhorns are 4-7 SU and 4-7 ATS with an over/under record of 5-6. The Baylor Bears are 9-2 SU and 5-5 ATS with an over/under record of 7-4.

Public Perception: As of 12pm ET on December 2nd 2015, 62% of the public is betting that Baylor will cover the point spread against Texas.

Recent Meetings: The last time these two teams took the field, Baylor won by a score of 28-7. They were a 13.5 point favorite in that game and the over/under was 58 points. Prior to that, they also met in the ’13 season. Baylor was also a large favorite in that game (-17.5). They narrowly covered the point spread as a 30-10 winner. The over/under in that match was 71 points.

Notable Betting Trends: Texas is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against Baylor. The Over is 20-8 in Baylor’s last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Baylor is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Side ATS Pick: Baylor Bears -20.5
Over-Under Pick: Over 68.5 points