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MLB Pick: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals Prediction: September 27th 2017

Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
MLB Pick: KC -173 odds (September 27th 2017)
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The set-up: The Royals have been officially eliminated from playoff contention and Kansas City is set to begin its final farewell to several franchise cornerstones. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain are all pending free agents. However, the Royals figure to rest a few regulars on Wednesday as they continue their three-game series against the visiting Detroit Tigers. That said, Escobar started his 328th straight game on Tuesday and is expected to be in the lineup for all 162 for a second straight season. Another pending free agent, Jason Vargas, tossed six strong innings in Tuesday’s 2-1 victory as the Royals handed the Tigers their eighth straight loss. Detroit slugger Miguel Cabrera has missed the last two games after an MRI revealed two herniated disks but he’s seeking a second opinion and hasn’t ruled out a return before Sunday’s season finale.

The pitching matchup: A pair of struggling veterans take the mound on Wednesday, Jordan Zimmermann (8-13 & 6.19 ERA) for Detroit and Jason Hammel (8-13 & 5.32 ERA) for KC. Zimmermann’s back problems have been an ongoing concern but he was encouraged after allowing three runs over four innings in Thursday’s loss to Minnesota. “This was probably the best location and best velocity I’ve had in two years. I felt great,” Zimmermann told reporters. “The ball was coming out good. It was going right where I wanted it to.” That said, their hasn’t been much “domination” by Zimmermann in 2017, as he owns a 1.58 WHIP and .317 BBA to go along with his 6.19 ERA. The Tigers are 10-18 in his starts (minus-$578), including 4-10 on the road. However, he is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in five career games (four starts) against KC. Hammel has nowhere to go but up after after allowing a total of 19 runs (18 earned) on  29 hits in just 12 2/3 innings over his last three starts (12.79 ERA). The Royals are 10-21 in all his starts this season, giving him MLB’s fifth–worst moneyline mark of minus-$1233. Hammel is 3-2 with a 6.27 ERA in 13 career games (10 starts) against Detroit.

The pick: It’s impossible to choose a “worst” between tonight’s starters but it’s pretty easy to identify the team in the worst shape. That’s clearly the Tigers, who have lost eight in a row and 38 of their last 49! Take KC.

Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers Betting Prediction from Larry Ness: August 14th 2017

Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
MLB Betting Prediction: Texas -111 odds (August 14th 2017)
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The Tigers and Rangers were both sellers at the trade deadline but despite the teams sitting a combined 15 games under 500 (Texas is 56-60 and Detroit 53-64), an American League wild-card berth is still a possibility. That said, the Tigers, who are seven games back of the final spot with eight teams ahead of them, are surely a longer shot than the Rangers, who are a more manageable 3 1/2 games back.

The Rangers look for a fourth win in five games Monday when they continue a 10-game homestand with the first of three against the Tigers, who have lost seven of nine. Michael Fulmer (10-9, 3.59 ERA) will get the nod for Detroit and Martin Perez (6-10, 5.18 ERA) for Texas. The 2016 AL rookie of the year has spent two weeks on the disabled list with ulnar neuritis. His two most recent road outings were disasters, allowing 15 runs (11 earned) on 14 hits across 8 2/3 innings for an 11.42 ERA. Fulmer has made just one career starst against Texas, striking out nine in a four-hit shutout at Texas exactly one year ago.

Perez is off his finest performance of the season this past Wednesday, allowing one run on three hits across eight innings of a 5-1 win at the NY Mets. The outing marked the first time he has given up fewer than five hits in any of his 22 starts this season. Perez permitted two runs in six innings and did not factor in the decision May 8, 2016 against Detroit and enters 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA in four appearances (three starts / teams are 1-2) versus the Tigers.

Fulmer’s last two road starts have been a nightmare but note that prior to that, he had allowed only 14 ERs over his first 56 away innings in 2017 (2.25 ERA). The Rangers are 8-14 (minus-$655) in all of Perez’s starts this season, including going 5-8 in his home starts, where he’s posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. I’ll back Fulmer and the Tigers.

Royals vs. Tigers MLB Over-Under Prediction from Jesse Schule: July 25th 2017

Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
MLB Over-Under Prediction: Under 8.5 runs -110 odds (July 25th 2017)
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The Royals beat the Tigers 5-3 in extra-innings in Game 1 of this series in Detroit. We might see another pitcher’s duel tonight, with both teams turning to the front end of the rotation.

Michael Fulmer will toe the slab for the Tigers, and he’s having another fine season. Fulmer (10-7, 3.35 ERA) was rocked for eight runs in just 2 2/3 innings in a loss at Kansas CIty his last time out. He almost went the distance (8 2/3 innings), allowing three runs on seven hits and striking out seven in a home win over the Royals earlier this year. He’s 6-2 with a 3.72 ERA in 10 starts in the Motor City this season.

The Royals hand the ball to Danny Duffy, who picked up a win against the Tigers his last time out. Duffy has quietly been having a solid season, going 6-6 with a 3.71 ERA in 15 starts for the Royals this year. Not bad considering that he often doesn’t get the run support that he did in previous seasons.

Kansas City ranks 25th in the majors in runs scored, and the Royals have failed to reach the total in seven of their last 10 when Duffy starts.

Cleveland Indians vs. Detroit Tigers Odds & Pick from Will Rogers: July 2nd 2017

Cleveland Indians vs. Detroit Tigers
MLB Betting Pick: Detroit -109 odds (July 2nd 2017)
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The set-up: The Tigers and Indians played a doubleheader on Saturday. Detroit received back-to-back HRs from J.D. Martinez and Miguel Cabrera in a 7-4 victory in the opener but couldn’t complete the sweep in falling 4-1 to the Indians’ Carrasco (9-3 & 3.50 ERA). The Tigers head into Sunday’s game 4-10 in their last 14 games and 36-44 on the season, seven games back of the first-place Indians. The 4-1 win in the nightcap improves Cleveland’s road record to 25-16 and at 43-37 overall, Cleveland is the only team in the AL Central with a positive run-differential (plus-56).

The pitching matchup: Mike Clevinger (3-3 & 3.56 ERA) will get the start for Cleveland and Justin Verlander (5-4 & 4.47 ERA) for Detroit. Clevinger has shown excelelnt improvement form last year . He had a 5.26 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 17 appearances (10 starts) in 2016 but in 10 appearances (nine starts) in 2017, that ERA is down to 3.56 and his WHIP down to 1.19. Also, after batters hit .246 against him last season, he owns an outstanding BAA in 2017 at .198! He registered a season-high nine strikeouts in holding Texas to one run on two hits over six innings on Tuesday but had to settle for a no-decision (Texas won 2-1). He failed to pitch beyond five innings in each of his previous three starts (all on the road) while giving up eight runs and eight walks in 13 innings (5.54 ERA). Justin Verlander has made more starts against the Cleveland Indians (50) than any other opponent and also has his most losses (22) against Detroit’s American League Central rival. Verlander ended a six-start win-less drought Tuesday, giving up three runs on nine hits over seven innings to beat Kansas City. The six-time All-Star notched a season-high 11 strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings in his previous outing at Seattle, taking a no-decision after giving up three runs on four hits. Verlander is 20-22 versus Cleveland with a 4.60 ERA in 50 starts (Tigers are 23-27).

The pick: OK, Verlander has certainly not handled the Indians all that well over his career but Clevinger is a young pitcher who after holding two opponents to zero runs in his first two road starts of 2017, has failed to pitch beyond five innings in each of his last three starts, posting a 5.54 ERA (see above for more). As for Verlander, let’s turn to James McCann who has caught his last two outings. “He’s made a few adjustments from start to start, and you’re starting to see the results show. JV is a guy who expects perfection out of himself every time he steps on the mound and he’s done a heck of a job recently for us. I look for him to continue to make strides and continue to be the Verlander that we’ve all come to know and love.” I’ll go with the vet.

MLB Betting Prediction: Who will win tonight’s Tigers vs. Mariners MLB game?

Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
MLB Prediction: Tigers +136 odds (June 19th 2017)
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Probable Pitchers: Jordan Zimmermann vs. Sam Gaviglio

The Detroit Tigers visit Safeco Field on Monday, June 19, 2017 to play the Seattle Mariners. The probable starters are Jordan Zimmermann for the Tigers and Sam Gaviglio for the Mariners.

The opening line for this matchup has Detroit at +130 and Seattle at -140. The Tigers have a 36-29-2 over/under record and a 34-33-0 run line mark. The Mariners are 32-38-0 against the run line and have a 34-34-2 over/under record.

Useful Pitching Statistics
The Tigers have a 32-35 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann has a 5-5 record with an earned run average of 5.35 and a WHIP of 1.47. He has 48 strikeouts over his 75.2 innings pitched and he’s given up 89 hits. He allows 10.6 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 5.78. The bullpen has an earned run average of 5.07 and they have given up 206 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .258 against the bullpen and they’ve struck out 187 hitters and walked 87 batters. As a team, Detroit allows 9.6 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.6 batters per nine innings. They are 21st in the league in team earned run average at 4.67. The Tigers pitchers collectively have given up 628 base hits and 306 earned runs. They have allowed 81 home runs this season, ranking them 19th in the league. Detroit as a pitching staff has walked 229 batters and struck out 499. They have walked 3.5 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.6 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.45 and their FIP as a unit is 4.50.

For expert handicappers advice on this matchup and other MLB games check out our handicapping tips.

Hitting Statistics
As a team Detroit is hitting .256, good for 12th in the league. The Tigers hold a .433 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .332, which is good for 9th in baseball. They rank 14th in MLB with 8.7 hits per game. Miguel Cabrera is hitting .280 with an on-base percentage of .378. He has 56 hits this season in 200 at bats with 32 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .460 and an OPS+ of 125. Justin Upton is hitting .265 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .352. He has totaled 61 hits and he has driven in 43 men in 230 at bats. His OPS+ is 127 while his slugging percentage is at .500. The Tigers have 585 hits, including 128 doubles and 83 home runs. Detroit has walked 243 times so far this season and they have struck out 566 times as a unit. They have left 465 men on base and have a team OPS of .765. They score 4.91 runs per contest and have scored a total of 329 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics
Seattle has a 33-37 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 3.41, Sam Gaviglio has a 3-1 record and a 1.17 WHIP. He has 24 strikeouts over the 34.1 innings he’s pitched. He’s also given up 32 hits. He allows 8.4 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 5.93. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.50 and they have given up 232 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .243 against the Mariners bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 222 batters and walked 85 opposing hitters. As a team, Seattle allows 9.1 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.3 batters per nine innings. They are 23rd in the league in team earned run average at 4.78. The Mariners pitchers as a team have surrendered 627 base knocks and 329 earned runs this season. They have given up 107 home runs this year, which ranks 1st in Major League Baseball. Seattle as a staff has walked 216 hitters and struck out 504 batters. They give up a walk 3.1 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.3 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.36 while their FIP as a staff is 4.90.

Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .263, good for 8th in the league. The Mariners hold a .409 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .333, which is good for 7th in baseball. They rank 10th in MLB with 9.0 hits per contest. Nelson Cruz comes into this matchup batting .294 with an OBP of .378. He has 68 hits this year along with 53 RBI in 231 AB’s. He maintains a slugging percentage of .528 with an OPS+ of 143. Robinson Cano is hitting .286 this season and he has an OBP of .341. He has collected 68 hits in 238 at bats while driving in 40 runs. He has an OPS+ of 118 and a slugging percentage of .471. The Mariners as a unit have 631 base hits, including 117 doubles and 72 homers. Seattle has walked 229 times this year and they have struck out on 547 occasions. They have had 489 men left on base and have an OPS of .742. They have scored 4.73 runs per game and totaled 331 runs this season.

Who will win tonight’s Tigers/Mariners MLB game against the spread?
Doc’s Sports Pick: Take the Tigers

Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals MLB Pick from Jimmy Boyd: May 31st 2017

Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
MLB Pick: Royals -115 odds (May 31st 2017)
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I like the value here with Kansas City as a short home favorite against the Tigers on Wednesday. The Royals come in off a 1-0 win on Tuesday, where they were able to knock off Detroit’s ace Justin Verlander. That’s a tough loss for the Tigers to swallow, who have been struggling of late with a 3-8 record over their last 11 games.

KC will send out Ian Kennedy, who is 0-4 with a 4.43 ERA in 8 starts, but he’s pitched much better than the numbers suggest. Kennedy has a very strong 1.149 WHIP and owns a 3.04 ERA and 0.972 WHIP in 4 home starts. Kennedy faced the Tigers 3 times last season and allowed just 4 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings. Detroit is countering with Matt Boyd, who is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 2.057 WHIP in 5 road starts and faced the Royals twice last year, allowing 11 runs in 3 2/3 innings of work. Take Kansas City!

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