Wisconsin Badgers vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers
College Basketball Prediction: Minnesota +7.5 points (March 5th 2017)
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Even on senior day in Madison, the Wisconsin Badgers have no business in this pointspread range against the surging Golden Gophers. Things have gone south in a hurry for Wisconsin, falling apart down the stretch of their Big 10 campaign.
The results do not lie. Wisconsin is 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three contests, losing each time as a favorite, including SU losses at -7 and -12. Over their last eight games, the Badgers have covered a grand total of one pointspread, falling nearly 10 POINTS PER GAME below betting market expectations. The Badgers are quite simply not being priced in the correct range these days, an easy fade here!
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Minnesota most assuredly still remembers their bitter, two point OT loss to the Badgers at home earlier this season; part of an 0-5 skid to close out January. Since the calendar turned to February, the Gophers have won eight straight games, including a 14 point win as five point underdogs in their last road game at Maryland. Six of those eight wins have come by nine points or more – extending leads and closing out games.
Richard Pitino’s squad has hit just shy of 75% from the free throw line during this winning streak, in sharp contrast with Greg Gard’s team that can’t extend leads late due to free throw shooting below 65% for the full season, ranked #319 in the nation! Poor free throw shooting has the potential to be a real nightmare in this spread range for Badger backers…and that’s only if Wisconsin is in position to win the game at all! Take Minnesota.