Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Rams
Week 11 Point Spread Pick: LA +1.5 points (November 20th 2016)
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Miami has won and covered four straight games following a 1-4 start to the season but three of those wins came at home and the Dolphins were fortunate to win in San Diego last week. They benefitted from four Philip Rivers interceptions including the game winner that was returned for a touchdown with a minute remaining. Miami has been outgained in seven of nine games so the winning record is certainly skewed which makes the line today inflated. The Rams snapped a four-game losing streak with an ugly win against the Jets last week as the offense was inept once again. Surprisingly, during those four losses, Los Angeles won the yardage battle in all four games as the defense led the way once again. The stop unit is ranked No. 7 overall so the offense needs to pick it up and with Jared Goff set to make his NFL debut, this could be the spark it needs. Betting on a rookie quarterback in his first start may seem risky but it cannot get any worse at this point. The Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while the Rams are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Play (468) Los Angeles Rams
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
Week 11 Point Spread Prediction: Saints 3.5 points (November 17th 2016)
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These Saints are only 4-5 SU, but they’re better than it looks as they opened the season with 3 straight losses. They’re an improving team that heads into Thursday Night Football on a 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS winning streak since October 2nd, which includes a 41-38 home victory over these Panthers back on October 16th. Carolina finds themselves favored once again based on their reputation from winning last year’s NFC Championship despite the fact that they’re only 3-6 SU & 2-6-1 ATS this year.
Those 3 wins look even worse when you know they defeated the 49ers (1-8), Rams (4-5) & Cardinals (4-4-1), who combine for a 9-17-1 losing record. MUST take the points with a Saints crew that’s averaging 29.4 points per game and have already hung up 41 points on this Panther’s defense, especially knowing that Carolina has been held to 17 points or less in 4 of their last 7 games.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
Week 11 NFL Pick: Browns +8 (November 20th 2016)
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The Steelers are on a 3 game losing streak, and not looking very good of late, and are fade material here on the road . Note: PITTSBURGH is 3-13 ATS L/16 as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points and HC Tomlin is 9-18 ATS L/27 against lower tier teams – outscored by 6+ points per game on the season. Meanwhile, Cleveland despite of a ugly record are a team, that’s desperate for a victory. Just one win , and than their free to tank, so that they can pick up North Carolina’s super star under center Mitch Trubisky a Cleveland native in the draft. I know this one smells like a Norwegian fish market, but please just plug your nose, close your eyes and pull the trigger.
NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Browns – after failing to cover the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 29-9 ATS L/38 opportunities.
Play on the Cleveland Browns to cover
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Week 11 NFL Pick: Indy -3 (November 20th 2016)
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The Titans have looked great at times this year and very pedestrian in others. They’ve been alternating wins and losses over the last five games, most recently coming off a very satisfying 47-25 win over the Packers last Sunday. Indianapolis has to be feeling pretty confident here though, it also beat the Packers 31-26 before enjoying its bye last weekend. The Colts have had the Titans “number” over the years and when they met earlier this season, Indy came away with the 34-26 victory. Note that Tennessee is an absolutely horrific 2-12 ATS in its last 14 vs. the division and are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, including only 1-4 ATS this season. And note that Tennessee is an almost perfect 8-1 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of November. Consider a second look at the home side in this one.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Detroit Lions – 12:30pm ET November 26th 2015
Courtesy of Touthouse.com
Point Spread: The Detroit Lions are a 2 point favorite over the Philadelphia Eagles on Thanksgiving day with the over/under betting total set at 45.5 points.
Records: The Philadelphia Eagles are 4-6 SU and 4-6 ATS this season with an over/under record of 3-7. The Detroit Lions are 3-7 SU and 3-7 ATS this season with an over/under record of 5-5.
Public Perception: As of 7pm ET on November 25th, 53% of the wagering public is betting that the Lions will cover the point spread over the Eagles.
Recent Meetings: The last time these two teams met was in 2013. Philadelphia was a 2.5 point favorite and the games total was set at 51 points. The Eagles covered the spread and the game went over the total. Final Score of PHI 34 DET 20. Prior to that, in the 2012 season, the Eagles were favorite by 3.5 points with a total of 47.5 points. The final score in that game was DET 26 PHI 23 in overtime.
Notable Betting Trends: The Over is 4-0 the last 4 times these two teams have met. The Philadelphia Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against Detroit. The Over is 12-3 in Philadelphia’s last 15 games after putting up more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Detroit Lions are 1-5 in their last 6 home games.
Side ATS Pick: No Opinion
Over-Under Pick: Over 45.5 points.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots – November 23rd 2015
Courtesy of Touthouse.com
Point Spread: The New England Patriots are a 7 point favorite over the Buffalo Bills on Monday night and the over/under betting total is posted at 47 points.
Time/Location/Weather: This game is set to begin at 8:30pm ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The forecast is calling for mostly fair conditions, a Northwest wind of 7-12mph and a game time temperature of 32 degrees.
Records: The Buffalo Bills are 5-4 SU and 5-4 ATS this year and their over/under record is 5-4. The New England Patriots are a perfect 9-0 SU and are 5-3-1 ATS with an over/under record of 5-4 as well.
Public Perception: As of 12pm ET, 82% of the wagering public is betting that the Patriots will cover the point spread over the Bills.
Recent Meetings: The Patriots and Bills met earlier this season. Buffalo was a 2 point favorite in that game and the total was set at 45 points. The final score was New England 40 Buffalo 32. The Patriots covered the point spread and the game went over the betting total.
Notable Betting Trends: The Over is 5-1 in the last 6 games these teams have played in New England and 7-2 in their last 9 games overall. The Over is 8-2 in New England’s last 10 home games when playing against a team with a winning road record.
Side ATS Pick: No Opinion
Over-Under Pick: Over 47 points.