Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Week 12 NFL Point Spread Prediction: Ravens -3.5 (November 27th 2016)
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I like the value here with Baltimore laying less than a touchdown at home against the Bengals. I know the Ravens have a tendency to play close games, but Cincinnati is in a lot of trouble. Not only did the Bengals lose a huge game at home, they lost two of the better offensive players to injury.
Star wide out A.J. Green suffered a hamstring injury that will have him out this week and maybe the rest of the season. Running back Giovanni Bernard is done for good after tearing his ACL. The loss of Green is a huge blow to the offense. His 66 receptions are easily tops on the team. In fact, the next best is Bernard with 39. Combined the two have been targeted on 151 of Dalton’s 360 pass attempts. Green also has 15 receptions of 20+ yards. The rest of the team has 22.
Dalton is already a limited quarterback as it is. With that said, he looks like a completely different signal caller when Green is on the field compared to when he’s not. Making matters worse, the Bengals are going up against one of the elite defenses in the NFL this week. Baltimore leads the league against the run (76.0 ypg) and are 7th against the pass (219.1 ypg).
It only makes it that much harder for Cincinnati with this game being on the road. The Bengals are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS on the highway this season, where they are getting outscored by 6.7 ppg.
I just feel like we are getting value here due to the Ravens having gone just 2-5 ATS in their last 7. That actually puts them in a favorable situation. Baltimore is 14-4 ATS under Harbaugh after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games.
It is also worth pointing out that the Ravens have taken care of business against division foes. They are 3-0 versus the AFC North, with all 3 wins coming by at least 5-points. That includes a recent 21-14 win at home over the Steelers. Cincinnati on the other hand is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 against division opponents. Take Baltimore!
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