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Posts Tagged ‘Week 13 NFL Picks’

Raiders vs. Giants Week 13 Prediction from John Martin: December 3rd 2017

Oakland Raiders vs. New York Giants
Week 13 Prediction: Raiders -7.5 points (December 3rd 2017)

The Oakland Raiders have won three of their last five to get to 5-6 on the season.  Their outlook is a bright one right now as they are just one game back of the reeling Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West, and they own the head-to-head tiebreaker.  The Giants have clearly waved the white flag.  They are starting Geno Smith and benching Eli Manning this week, and that was not a popular decision among players on the team and the media.  The Giants are more concerned about getting a high draft pick now likely to select their quarterback of the future.  I don’t expect them to offer much resistance against the motivated Raiders this week.  The Raiders are actually 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. New York is 0-6 ATS after allowing 3 points or fewer in the first half of last game over the last two seasons.  Give me the Raiders.

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Check out Larry Ness’ Giants vs. Raiders point spread pick at

Week 13 NFL Pick: Teddy Covers betting the Patriots -8.5 points on December 3rd 2017

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Week 13 NFL Betting Pick: NE -8.5 (December 3rd 2017)

For the second consecutive season, the New England Patriots are, incredibly, an UNDER-valued commodity in the betting markets.  Last year, despite their ‘public’ nature and their Super Bowl winning caliber roster, the wiseguys faded New England (and lost fading New England) week after week.  The Pats finished the season with a truly remarkable 15-3-1 ATS record, including an 8-1 ATS mark on the highway.

It’s been more of the same here in 2017.  The Patriots statistical profile hasn’t been pretty from Day 1, when New England got slapped around on their home field against Kansas City.  Their full, season long numbers show a mediocre ballclub that allows 6.1 yards per play on defense (tied with Tampa for dead last in the NFL), unable to stop the run (4.9 yards per carry allowed, also tied for last in the NFL) and mediocre against the pass.

Those numbers are flat out lying, and that’s what the public sees that the wiseguys are missing.  Since Week 5, the Patriots have allowed the fewest points in the NFL – the #1 points allowed defense.  Remember, wiseguys are looking at this defense like it’s among the worst in the league.  That’s a pretty sharp disparity!  It shows why money comes in against the Patriots almost every week.  And it shows why that money continues to lose, with New England 100% perfect ATS since mid-October.

The Bills are an easy team to handicap this year when we consider one factor.  Buffalo is 6-1 SU, 5-1-1 ATS when they win the turnover battle.  They are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS when turnovers were even or the Bills had a negative turnover margin.  That’s another VERY sharp dichotomy, which doesn’t bode well for Buffalo in this matchup.  Because the Patriots do one thing better than any other team in the NFL – they don’t turn the ball over.

In 2014, the Patriots ranked #1 in the NFL in fewest turnovers committed on offense.  In 2015, the Patriots ranked #1 in the NFL in fewest turnovers committed on offense.   In 2016, the Patriots ranked #1 in the NFL in fewest turnovers committed on offense.  And here we are entering Week 13 of the campaign, and New England is, once again, ranked #1 for the fewest turnovers committed in the NFL.  Given the Bills SU and ATS stats above, the Pats ability to avoid turnovers is clearly a problem for the home underdog.

New England won here 41-25 last year, 40-32 the year before and 37-22 the year before; a very one sided series in recent seasons.  At 6-5, the Bills have been outyarded, out-first downed and outgained by 0.6 yards per play for the season – they have, quite simply, lived off their turnover margin.  But this is one game where the Bills cannot be expected to win the turnover battle; bad news for Bills fans and backers.  Take the Patriots.

Browns vs. Chargers Week 13 NFL Over-Under Pick from Dennis Macklin: December 3rd 2017

Cleveland Browns vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Week 13 NFL Over-Under Pick: Over 41.5 points (December 3rd 2017)

Despite favorites going 37-15-4 in November and that the Browns are 8-29-1 ATS in their L38 game overall, still not interested giving or taking here but still interested in the total. The suddenly raging Chargers need just one more win to get to .500 and are right in the mix with the Chiefs and Raiders for the AFC West or a wildcard spot. They’re also in a rare revenge spot vs. Cleveland in that if you remember, it was the Chargers who saved Cleveland the ignominy of being only the second winless team of the modern era by losing to the Browns 20-17 on Christmas Eve.

In the end, though, we don’t think it will be doing the job and getting the win. Philip Rivers was near perfect in his near surgical dissection of the Dallas defense producing 500 yards and without question (kicker lost 1st Q) at least 10 more points. He’ll be facing a Browns defense that has hit the wall and given up 30 plus to any jersey but Tennessee and Jacksonville the last seven games. If we put the Chargers on 30+, Cleveland won’t need to do much heavy lifting to have this one flying over the total. Play the Over.

Broncos vs. Jaguars Week 13 Pick from Mike Lundin: December 4th 2016

BRONCOS JAGUARS WEEK 13Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 13 NFL Point Spread Pick: Broncos -3 (December 4th 2016)

The Denver Broncos are coming off a disappointing 30-27 Sunday night loss to Kansas City. I think the lowly 2-9 Jacksonville Jaguars will pay the price this week. Denver is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games following a straight up loss and it needs to rack up wins in order to catch the surging Oakland Raiders at the top of the AFC West. Jacksonville has lost six in a row overall and the Jags have an NFL-worst minus-15 in turnover differential this season. Denver’s QB Trevor Siemian threw for a personal-best 368 yards and three touchdowns last week but sustained a foot injury and has been limited at practice this week. It’s not the Broncos’ offense that will win them this game though, but their D. Look for Denver to win and cover the spread at EverBank Field this Sunday.

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Teddy Covers betting the ‘Under’ 44 points in the Panthers vs. Seahawks Week 13 game on December 4th 2016

PANTHERS VS. SEAHAWKS BETTINGCarolina Panthers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Week 13 NFL Pick: Under 44 points (December 4th 2016)

Great quarterbacks can only play like great quarterbacks when they have some semblance of an offensive line to protect them.  When these two teams met twice last year, both offensive lines were in good shape.

Russell Wilson and Cam Newton had a running game that balanced their downfield passing attack.  Seattle scored 23 and 24 points in those two games, but they lost them both in SU fashion, cashing a pair of Over tickets in the process.

That was then.  This is now.  The Seahawks offensive line is in complete disarray right now.  Three rookies started on that OL last week.  They’ll be starting their fifth different combo of offensive linemen this week.  Offensive coordinator Darrel Bevell, talking about the struggles of his OL:“We are just trying to find the best five guys. If it changes every week, then it changes every week.”

Russell Wilson got sacked six times last week, but it was far worse than that – Wilson was running for his life, quite literally, on just about every snap.  That game marked the THIRD time this year in which the Seahawks offense didn’t reach the end zone even once.  Expecting an offensive explosion from the Seahawks this week is an exercise in optimism!

But the Panthers offensive line is in even worse shape than the Seahawks OL!  Four of their five starters have been officially ruled ‘Out’ for Sunday Night’s affair.  Michael Oher didn’t make the trip out West.  Ryan Kalil and Gino Gradkowski got hurt last week against the Raiders.  The Panthers were forced to make a signing from the Cleveland Browns practice squad just to have enough healthy bodies here.  I don’t care how you spin it —  you don’t want to be bringing guys in from the Browns practice squad in Week 13 at Seattle!

Ron Rivera knows what’s coming; talking about his offensive line woes: “It’s about as catastrophe as you can get. I mean, when you look at the losses we’ve had this year. But our coaches will coach up the guys that are available to us.”  Against the Seahawks elite stop unit, playing in front of that 12th man crowd, expect Carolina, like Seattle, to struggle to score touchdowns.  Take the Under.

Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots Week 13 NFL Pick: December 4th 2016

RAMS VS. PATRIOTS WEEK 13Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots
Week 13 NFL Pick: Patriots -13 points (December 4th 2016)

Nobody in the league has been worse in explosive plays over the last month than the Rams, a whopping -9 the past four games. This team just can’t put points on the board averaging 12 points per game the last five contests. The Rams have aloso failed to win the turnover battle in 6 of 7 games. When losing the TO battle this season Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS.

New England holds a +35 explosive play advantage over the Rams on the season. With the Pats struggling the past three weeks this team needs to get things right before facing its nemesis Baltimore next Monday night. New England lost the yards per play battle last week against the Jets. In games following a contest where the Pats trailed in that stat this season the team is perfect ATS covering by 10 points per game on average.