Minnesota Vikings vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
NFL Week 14 Prediction: Jacksonville +3.5 points (December 11th 2016)
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This is by far more of a play against the Vikings than it is on the Jaguars. The Jaguars are a team who have outgained their opponents this season by an average of 23 yards a game but are 2-10 in the record book. It’s hard to handicap turnovers in the NFL or predict them, but the Jaguars rank last in the NFL with a -18 mark in the give/take away department. On the other hand, the Vikings are +13 in the same department. Given that stat, one will say the play is on the Vikings here, but I am going on a limb and advising a small play on the Jaguars here. If Blake Bortles continues to throw pick 6’s, then the Jaguars are going to have a hard time covering, but the team is in desperate need of a home win.
Jacksonville has an underrated defense ranked 4th in the NFL. Their pass defense ranks 2nd in fewest yards per game. Minnesota isn’t going to scare Jacksonville with their offense that is easy to predict where the ball is going. While Bortles has been interception prone, Sam Bradford has to throw the ball short part because his offensive line can’t protect him and the other part because his arm strength is weak.
Minnesota has the worst rushing attack in the NFL. Jacksonville will look to make the Vikings one-dimensional and they will look to force some turnovers. It starts with a pass rush against the Vikings vulnerable line.
The Vikings are 3-10 ATS their L13 as a road favorite. They are 0-4 ATS their last 4 when laying 3 points or more. They are 0-2 SU and ATS this year as a road favorite facing a team off a loss. The Vikings only scored 10 points in these 2 games against the Bears and Eagles.
Now, the clincher for me is that when the Vikings are a road favorite off a loss against a team off a loss also, they are 1-15 ATS since 1989! I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line climb to +3.5 before kickoff, which is even better. (1* Jacksonville)