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Minnesota Vikings vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Week 14 NFL Prediction: December 11th 2016

Minnesota Vikings vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
NFL Week 14 Prediction: Jacksonville +3.5 points (December 11th 2016)
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This is by far more of a play against the Vikings than it is on the Jaguars. The Jaguars are a team who have outgained their opponents this season by an average of 23 yards a game but are 2-10 in the record book. It’s hard to handicap turnovers in the NFL or predict them, but the Jaguars rank last in the NFL with a -18 mark in the give/take away department. On the other hand, the Vikings are +13 in the same department. Given that stat, one will say the play is on the Vikings here, but I am going on a limb and advising a small play on the Jaguars here. If Blake Bortles continues to throw pick 6’s, then the Jaguars are going to have a hard time covering, but the team is in desperate need of a home win.

Jacksonville has an underrated defense ranked 4th in the NFL. Their pass defense ranks 2nd in fewest yards per game. Minnesota isn’t going to scare Jacksonville with their offense that is easy to predict where the ball is going. While Bortles has been interception prone, Sam Bradford has to throw the ball short part because his offensive line can’t protect him and the other part because his arm strength is weak.

Minnesota has the worst rushing attack in the NFL. Jacksonville will look to make the Vikings one-dimensional and they will look to force some turnovers. It starts with a pass rush against the Vikings vulnerable line.

The Vikings are 3-10 ATS their L13 as a road favorite. They are 0-4 ATS their last 4 when laying 3 points or more. They are 0-2 SU and ATS this year as a road favorite facing a team off a loss. The Vikings only scored 10 points in these 2 games against the Bears and Eagles.

Now, the clincher for me is that when the Vikings are a road favorite off a loss against a team off a loss also, they are 1-15 ATS since 1989! I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line climb to +3.5 before kickoff, which is even better. (1* Jacksonville)

Jack Jones betting the Cardinals -2 over the Dolphins on December 11th 2016

Arizona Cardinals vs. Miami Dolphins
Week 14 NFL Pick: Cardinals -2 (December 11th 2016)
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The Arizona Cardinals were on life support heading into last week.  But they gutted out a huge 31-23 home win over the Washington Redskins to get them right back in contention for the playoffs.  At 5-6-1, they are now 1.5 games back for the wild card spot and have head-to-head tiebreakers over two teams they are chasing in the Bucs and Redskins.

You could tell by the scene in the locker room how much that win meant to the players.  And now I look for an inspired effort from them this week in Miami as they look to continue their push to make the postseason.  And I totally agree with this line move in favor of the Cardinals as they opened as underdogs this week and now have been tabbed the betting favorite.

The biggest reason I agree is because there might not be a more underrated team in the NFL than the Cardinals.  Their raw numbers stack up as well as anyone’s, and I still believe this is a borderline Top 5 team because of it.  The Cardinals actually lead the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 71.8 yards per game.  They are 6th in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 0.5 yards per play.

The Cardinals boast the league’s No. 2 ranked defense, allowing just 297.2 yards per game.  They have arguably the best running back in the NFL in David Johnson, who has rushed for 1,005 yards and 11 touchdowns, while also catching 64 balls for 704 yards and four more scores.  If there record was better, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite to win the MVP.  And Carson Palmer is coming off one of his best games of the season against Washington.

Miami is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL.  The Dolphins are 7-5 this season, but the raw numbers show that they’re not as good as their record.  They rank 29th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 45.3 yards per game.  Only the Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse in that department, so they’re in some pretty bad company.

And we saw last week how badly Miami struggled against the No. 1 defense in the NFL, which was the Baltimore Ravens.  The Dolphins lost that game 6-38 while getting held to just 277 yards of offense.  Ryan Tannehill threw three interceptions in the loss.  Now the Dolphins have to face the No. 2 defense in the NFL this week in the Cardinals, and the No. 3 pass defense, which is allowing just 199.3 yards per game through the air.  Miami’s offense really missed center Mike Pouncey, who was lost to injury a few weeks back and remains out.

The Dolphins are 0-10 ATS in December games over the last three seasons.  Miami is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 home games after having won six or seven of its last eight games coming in.  The Dolphins are 14-43-1 ATS in their last 58 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last six December games.  Bruce Arians is 6-0 ATS in December road games as the coach of Arizona.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

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Saints vs. Bucs Week 14 NFL Over-Under Pick from Jesse Schule: December 11th 2016

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
Week 14 NFL Pick: Under 51.5 points (December 11th 2016)
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The Saints will be on the road at Tampa this Sunday, and the bookmakers are expecting plenty of scoring in this one. The total is over 50, which is much higher than it was in the previous six meetings between the two teams. They failed to reach the total in four of those six games, and the two games that went over were both played at the Super Dome in New Orleans. Drew Brees leads the NFL in passing, but he’s coming off his worst game of the season, throwing for 326 yards and three INTs in a home loss to Detroit.

The Saints have lost three of their last four games, going under the total in all three of those losses. The Bucs on the other hand have won four in a row, and have allowed opponents to average just 13 points during that span. The Saints seem to score most of their points against the league’s weaker teams, which is part of the reason they’ve failed to reach the total in six straight against teams with a winning record. The under is 7-1 in their last eight games at Tampa Bay, and they’ve gone under in six of their last eight road games.

Cardinals vs. Dolphins Week 14 NFL Pick from Doc’s Sports: December 11th 2016

CARDINALS VS. DOLPHINS WEEK 14 NFL PICKArizona Cardinals vs. Miami Dolphins
Week 14 NFL Pick: Dolphins -1 (December 11th 2016)
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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #116 Take Miami Dolphins over Arizona Cardinals (Sunday 1 pm FOX) Miami laid an egg last week against Baltimore but they still have won six of their last seven games and I expect them to bounce back in a big way on Sunday. Arizona is all but out of the playoff picture and teams traveling east for 1 pm games seldom perform well. Arizona has lost three straight road games including two of them by double digits. Arizona is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Miami is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend Card featuring top plays in college basketball and football. Doc collected with his Nonconference Game of the Year last Saturday (Gonzaga over Arizona) and has hit three straight top plays in the NFL. Jump on board this holiday season and let 45 years of handicapping experience work for you.

Giants vs. Dolphins MNF Point Spread & Over-Under Pick: December 14th 2015

GIANTS VS. DOLPHINS POINT SPREAD PICK MONDAY NIGHT

New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins – 8:30pm ET December 14th 2015
Courtesy of Touthouse.com

Point Spread: The Miami Dolphins are a 1 point favorite against the New York Giants in this Monday night matchup. The total for the game is currently posted at 47 points.

Records: The New York Giants are 5-7 SU and 6-5-1 ATS this season with an over/under record of 7-5. The Miami Dolphins are 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS this season with an over/under record of 6-6.

Public Perception: As of 3:46pm ET, 74% of the wagering public is betting that that Giants will cover the point spread over the Dolphins.

Recent Meetings: The last time these two teams took the field was in the 2011 season. The New York Giants were a 9.5 point favorite in that match and the over/under was 43.5. The Dolphins ended up covering the point spread and the game went under the posted total. Final Score: NYG 20 MIA 17.

Notable Betting Trends: The under is 4-0 the last 4 times these two teams have played eachother. The underdog in this series is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last 4 games. Miami is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games. New York is 5-2-1 in their last 8 road games.

Side ATS Pick: New York Giants +1
Over-Under Pick: No Opinion

Patriots vs. Texans Week 14 Point Spread Pick from Brandon Lee: December 13th 2015

PATRIOTS VS. TEXANS POINT SPREAD PICKNew England Patriots vs. Houston Texans
Week 14 Point Spread Pick: Patriots -3.5 (December 13th 2015)
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I just don’t see the Patriots losing 3 straight considering they just lost back-to-back games for the first time in more than 3 years. I know it doesn’t look good regardless of how you lose when you get beat at home by a team that had been outscored 31-90 in their previous 2 games, but that loss to the Eagles last week was a joke. Philadelphia scored 35-unanswered points after falling behind 14-0 and during this stretch had 3 straight non-offensive touchdowns. They had a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, a 99-yard interception return and 83-yard punt return. New England on the game outgained the Eagles by 179-yards and had 27 first downs to Philadelphia 15.

I know the Patriots have been hit hard with injuries of late and that has definitely played a role in their back-to-back losses, but it’s not like the offense can’t move the ball. New England had 433 yards on the road against an elite Denver defense and 427 yards last week against the Eagles. As good as the Texans have played defensively of late, I don’t see them keeping Brady and this offense in check.

The Texans also don’t have a great offense and will be going up against a really good New England defense. This is an offense that only scored 24 points against the Saints and that was with them scoring 14 in the 1st quarter. In New Orleans last 5 games they are the only team to not score at least 34 points against them. I’ll take my chances Brady and Belichick off back-to-back losses in a nationally televised game laying a field goal or less every time.

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