Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Week 16 NFL Pick: Chiefs -3.5 points (December 25th 2016)
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I’ll take my chances on KC at this price at home in a prime time game. Kansas City is a perfect 4-0 in division games this year. They already swept the Raiders in both meetings and I see no reason why they can’t do the same against Denver.
While the Chiefs come in off a loss, they haven’t lost back-to-back games since last year’s 1-5 start. They come in having won 20 of their last 24 regular season games.
The thing with Denver is they haven’t really played well since their 4-0 start to the season. The Broncos are just 4-6 since. Their only road wins during this stretch were against the Saints and Jaguars and they should have lost at NO.
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Their two division road games have been ugly. They lost 13-21 at San Diego and 20-30 at Oakland. Never really haven’t a chance in either game. They trailed the Chargers 3-21 with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. It wasn’t much better against the Raiders, as they trailed 13-30 with less than 7 minutes to go.
Denver is a team that really has to rely on their defense. The problem is they are hurting on that side of the ball right now. Starting safety and leading tackler T.J. Ward is questionable. As is starting defensive end Derek Wolfe and linebacker Brandon Marshall.
Kansas City’s offense has got off to great starts of late, but haven’t been able to finish. They haven’t scored a single point in the 2nd half of each of their last two games. I look for Andy Reid to get that fixed here and for the Chiefs to put together a full game offensively.
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Denver inability to run the football has really been a problem. It also favors a Chiefs cover. Road teams who have been outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games and are averaging 70-95 ypg on the season are just 17-43 (28%) ATS since 1983 when facing an average run defense (95-125 ypg). Take Kansas City!
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