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Posts Tagged ‘Week 16 NFL Picks’

Broncos vs. Chiefs Week 16 NFL Point Spread Pick from Jimmy Boyd: December 25th 2016

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Week 16 NFL Pick: Chiefs -3.5 points (December 25th 2016)

I’ll take my chances on KC at this price at home in a prime time game. Kansas City is a perfect 4-0 in division games this year. They already swept the Raiders in both meetings and I see no reason why they can’t do the same against Denver.

While the Chiefs come in off a loss, they haven’t lost back-to-back games since last year’s 1-5 start. They come in having won 20 of their last 24 regular season games.

The thing with Denver is they haven’t really played well since their 4-0 start to the season. The Broncos are just 4-6 since. Their only road wins during this stretch were against the Saints and Jaguars and they should have lost at NO.

Their two division road games have been ugly. They lost 13-21 at San Diego and 20-30 at Oakland. Never really haven’t a chance in either game. They trailed the Chargers 3-21 with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. It wasn’t much better against the Raiders, as they trailed 13-30 with less than 7 minutes to go.

Denver is a team that really has to rely on their defense. The problem is they are hurting on that side of the ball right now. Starting safety and leading tackler T.J. Ward is questionable. As is starting defensive end Derek Wolfe and linebacker Brandon Marshall.

Kansas City’s offense has got off to great starts of late, but haven’t been able to finish. They haven’t scored a single point in the 2nd half of each of their last two games. I look for Andy Reid to get that fixed here and for the Chiefs to put together a full game offensively.

Denver inability to run the football has really been a problem. It also favors a Chiefs cover. Road teams who have been outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games and are averaging 70-95 ypg on the season are just 17-43 (28%) ATS since 1983 when facing an average run defense (95-125 ypg). Take Kansas City!

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Giants vs. Eagles Thursday Night Point Spread Prediction: December 22nd 2016

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Thursday Night Point Spread Pick: Giants -1.5 points (December 22nd 2016)

The Philadelphia Eagles are (2-9) in their last 11 games overall and have lost their last 5 games in a row. New York is (8-1) in their last 9 games.

Philadelphia beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 34-3 all the way back in Week 3 this season, in Philadelphia. This is the game that is skewing the spread today. Because of that game, the Eagles home win margin is +8.5, when it should be that high if you look at what they have done since that game, it has been terrible. The New York Giants are a much better football team than the Philadelphia Eagles and they will show that tonight as they go into Philadelphia and beat the Eagles by more than 2 points.

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Buccaneers vs. Saints Week 16 NFL Pick from Jesse Schule: December 24th 2016

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
Week 16 NFL Prediction: Under 52.5 points (December 24th 2016)

The Bucs have won five of their last six overall after coming up short in a 26-20 defeat at Dallas on Sunday night. They turned the ball over four times in that loss, putting their defense in a tough spot. Heading into last Sunday’s game the Bucs had won five straight, limiting opponents to an average of less than 13 points per game during that span. One of those wins came against New Orleans, and they picked off Drew Brees three times in a 16-11 home win. Brees is coming off a big game on the road at Arizona, but the Cardinals look like a team that has already thrown in the towel. The Bucs are still fighting for a playoff spot, and they should go all out here at the Super Dome. These two teams have gone under the total in 13 of the last 16 meetings, and the Saints have failed to reach the total in seven straight versus teams with a winning record. The Bucs have gone under in five of their last six road games.

Chargers vs. Browns Week 16 NFL Pick from Stephen Nover: December 24th 2016

San Diego Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns
Week 16 NFL Pick: Browns +6 (December 24th 2016)

Never before during the 11-year era of Philip Rivers have the Chargers endured a worst losing stretch, which has now reached 21 losses in their last 30 games.  Not only are the Chargers dead in the standings, but they have a dead man walking coach and a dead franchise with the team almost certain to move out of San Diego.  Now the warm-weathered Chargers have to fly on a short week to cold Cleveland on Christmas week to play the winless Browns. The forecast is calling for 80 percent chance of rain, 14 mph winds and temperatures in the 30’s. It’s an early starting time, too, for the Chargers at 10 a.m. West Coast time. Do you honestly believe any of the Chargers are excited about this game?  Maybe Rivers. The guy is the ultimate competitor. Unfortunately he’s become a turnover machine throwing 11 interceptions in the last five games trying to overcompensate and press too hard for the many deficiencies of his team. San Diego has turned the ball over 32 times. That’s the most in the NFL. By contrast, Cleveland has 11 fewer turnovers.  Injuries have struck the Chargers harder than maybe any other NFL team. Rivers isn’t likely to have Melvin Gordon, his best running back. That would leave the Chargers down to fifth-string rookie Kenneth Farrow again. Rivers also is without his top wide receiver Keenan Allen. The Chargers have been hard hit by injuries particularly at linebacker and in the secondary where their two best cornerbacks are out for the season. All together, the Chargers have 16 players on IR.

The Browns are dreadful. There’s no soft pedaling that. However, the Browns will have tremendous motivation to avoid a winless season. Cleveland finishes at Pittsburgh next week with the early number being Steelers favored by 16 1/2, according to the oddsmakers at the Westgate Hotel. So realistically the Browns know this is their shot.  Robert Griffin III will be making his third start since coming back from a shoulder injury that sidelined him 11 games. He’s improved each time since his return. I don’t think it’s a leap of faith to believe this will be his best game of the season. His NFL future is on the line. Griffin has better weapons than Rivers does – especially if Gordon is ruled out for a second straight week – with Isaiah Crowell, Terrelle Pryor and Corey Coleman. The Browns also have the best offensive lineman, Joe Thomas, and defensive back in Joe Haden.  The Browns won’t be outgunned here. They are the more motivated team and are at home to their loyal fans. Those are enough edges to provide the Browns their first and only victory of 2016.  (Editor’s note: Stephen Nover has beaten the NFL in 20 of the last 22 years and has his AFC Game of the Month heading his Week 16 card in addition to this free selection.)

Bengals vs. Broncos Monday Night Football Over-Under Betting Pick: December 28th 2015


Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos
Monday Night Football Over-Under Pick: Under 40 points (December 28th 2015)

We see two very good defensive teams here, along with two back up QBs running the offenses. Neither Osweiler nor McCarron have been particularly effective, with both sides leaning on their secondarys to win games – but with good reason. McCarron has 3 TDs and 2 INTs in his last 2 games while Osweiler has 4 TDs in his last 3 games. However this game sees the Broncos coming at 4th overall in defense (18.5 ppg), 1st in home passing yds allowed (153.3 ypg) and 1st in home rushing yds allowed (74.7 ypg). The Bengals lost a lot of offense when Andy Dalton got injured, but their secondary continues to stand up, ranking 1st overall in defense (17.4 ppg) and 1st in road yards allowed (76.0 ypg). Both teams put up points against the offense focused Steelers and the Bengals put up 24 points against a struggling 49ers outfit that barely have a 1st choice player at any position left healthy. The Broncos beat a bad Chargers side with just 17 points (allowing 3 though) and lost to the Raiders, putting up 12 points and allowing 15. This will be a gritty, grinding game that will be won in the secondary and we don’t expect to see many points at all.

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati’s last 8 games. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cincinnati’s last 14 games on the road. The total has gone UNDER in 3 of Denver’s last 4 games.

For our free pick, take the UNDER 40 points here.

Packers vs. Cardinals Week 16 Point Spread Pick from Brandon Lee: December 27th 2015


Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Week 16 Point Spread Pick: Cardinals -4 (December 27th 2015)

I had high opes for the Packers offense with McCarthy back calling plays, but the offensive struggles continued against the Raiders. Green Bay only managed 293 total yards against a soft Oakland defense and Aaron Rodgers was just 22 of 39 for 202 yards against one of the league’s worst secondaries. Arizona is one of the most complete teams in the NFL. The Cardinals are outgaining opponents on average by 93.3 ypg. In comparison, the Packers are getting outgained on the season by an average of 7.1 ypg. The perception is that these are two evenly matched teams and this will appear like a lot of points for the Packers to be catching, but the numbers suggest this line should be higher than it is.

Arizona is 5-1 at home, where they are outscoring opponents by 10.6 ppg. Green Bay is 5-2 on the road, but they have only played 2 road games against elite teams and they lost both badly. They lost by 19 at Denver and trailed Carolina by as many as 20 points in a 29-37 defeat. Arizona desperately wants a win here, as they can clinch a first round bye. Give me the Cardinals -4!