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Posts Tagged ‘Week 16 NFL Picks’

Chargers vs. Jets Week 16 NFL Over-Under Prediction from Stephen Nover: December 24th 2017

San Diego Chargers vs. New York Jets
Week 16 NFL Over-Under Pick: Under 43 points (December 24th 2017)

Only two teams give up fewer points per game than the Chargers. LA holds foes to just 18.2 points a game and rank tied for seventh in sacks with 38. Defensive end Joey Bosa and cornerback Casey Hayward are among the best at their respective positions.  It’s safe to say the Bryce Petty-led Jets are not going to put up many points. Petty is one of the worst backup quarterbacks in the NFL. He doesn’t pass the eye test, nor do his career statistics of four TD passes and 10 turnovers in eight appearances, including five starts.  The Chargers’ defensive strength is their pass defense and pass rush. The Jets will be running alot trying to control clock and keep the ball out of Philip Rivers’ hands. New York could be down two starting offensive linemen and two of their three best running backs, however. Right guard Brian Winters will be out for the first time since Week 3 felled by an abodomen injury. Center Wesley Johnson is questionable with a hip injury. Matt Forte has a knee injury and Elijah McGuire has been ill. They, too, are questionable.  If you discount their laying an egg against the Chiefs last week in Kansas City, the Chargers have played strong defense on the road holding the Cowboys to six points, Jaguars to 17 in regulation, Patriots to 21 and Raiders to 16 during their previous four away matchups. The Under has cashed in the Chargers’ last five road games.  Traveling cross-country and playing at an early start time are not pluses for Los Angeles.

The temperature is going to be in the 40s, but that’s still cold for the Chargers and they aren’t used to possible swirling wind that can occur at MetLife Stadium.  The Chargers also could be down two starting offensive linemen with left tackle Russell Okung questionable with a groin injury and right tackle Joe Barksdale dealing with a hip injury. Tight end Hunter Henry, a much better receiver than blocker, is out for the season after suffering a kidney injury. That means an increased role for Antonio Gates, who is in his NFL dotage.  It’s a plus for the Jets if they get back two star defensive linemen, Leonard Williams and Muhammad Wilkerson. I believe both will play. Williams has cleared concussion protocol and Wilkerson has practiced every day this week after being benched last week for tardiness.  The Chargers have been a strong under team late in the season going above the total just six times in their last 26 December games. Note, too, the Chargers are on their fourth place-kicker. So field goals for them are far from automatic.

(Editor’s note: Stephen Nover is well on his way to beating the NFL for the 22nd time in 24 years cashing nearly 60 percent of his last 45 premium/free plays going 26-18-1. Stephen has three other Sunday NFL plays in addition to this one headed by his Total of the Month.)

Jaguars vs. 49ers Week 16 Betting Prediction from Joseph D’Amico: December 24th 2017

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Francisco 49ers
Week 16 NFL Prediction: Jags -4 (December 24th 2017)

With a win here, Jacksonville clinches a Division Title for the first time since 1999. Yes, there is an argument for the success Jimmy Garappolo is having as San Francisco has won 3 straight. However, before we start pouring champagne, those victories came against Chicago (by 1 pt), Houston, and Tennessee (by 2 pts). In comes a Jaguars team that is also riding a 3-game streak (both SU and ATS) and 7 of their L8 (6-2 ATS).

This is not just a “flash in the pan” team. They own the 5th ranked scoring offense (26.7 PPG), which includes the #1 rushing attack, and the #1 overall “D”, which also includes the NFL’s best against the pass. this doesn’t bode well for Jimmy G and his favorite target, Marquise Goodwin. Jacksonville is 7-2 ATS their L9 games played on the road, 5-0 ATS their L5 games played in the month of December, and 5-2 ATS their L7 games played vs. teams with a losing record. San Francisco is 1-4 ATS their L5 games played at home, 4-10-1 ATS their L15 games played in the month of December, and 5-16-1 ATS their L22 games played vs. teams with a winning record. Take the Jaguars. Thank you.

Rams vs. Titans Week 16 NFL Over-Under Pick from Mike Lundin: December 24th 2017

Los Angeles Rams vs. Tennessee Titans
Week 16 NFL Over-Under Pick: Under 47.5 points (December 24th 2017)

The Tennessee Titans have mustered only a total of 30 points in back-to-back road losses at Arizona and San Francisco. They were extremely disappointed with their defensive display in last week’s 25-23 setback to the 49ers, and players blamed communication issues for poor pass coverage that led to Jimmy Garoppolo lighting them for 381 passing yards. I expect the Titans to put a lot of effort on sorting out their play on the defensive side of the ball for this contest.

The Titans still have everything to play for and could actually clinch a playoff spot this week with a win over the Rams and losses for the Ravens and Bills. The Rams meanwhile can wrap up a surprising NFC West title with a win or a Seattle loss in Dallas.

The Rams are tied with the Eagles at the top of the leaderboard for scoring, but they also have one of the best defenses in the league, holding opponents to 19.4 ppg on the season. The Titans have struggled to move the ball lately and QB Marcus Mariota was held under 200 yards passing in three consecutive games before breaking out with 241 yards against San Francisco.

Under is 11-5 in Rams last 16 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 6-0 in Titans last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

My free pick is on LAR @ TEN Under.

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Broncos vs. Chiefs Week 16 NFL Point Spread Pick from Jimmy Boyd: December 25th 2016

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Week 16 NFL Pick: Chiefs -3.5 points (December 25th 2016)

I’ll take my chances on KC at this price at home in a prime time game. Kansas City is a perfect 4-0 in division games this year. They already swept the Raiders in both meetings and I see no reason why they can’t do the same against Denver.

While the Chiefs come in off a loss, they haven’t lost back-to-back games since last year’s 1-5 start. They come in having won 20 of their last 24 regular season games.

The thing with Denver is they haven’t really played well since their 4-0 start to the season. The Broncos are just 4-6 since. Their only road wins during this stretch were against the Saints and Jaguars and they should have lost at NO.

Their two division road games have been ugly. They lost 13-21 at San Diego and 20-30 at Oakland. Never really haven’t a chance in either game. They trailed the Chargers 3-21 with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. It wasn’t much better against the Raiders, as they trailed 13-30 with less than 7 minutes to go.

Denver is a team that really has to rely on their defense. The problem is they are hurting on that side of the ball right now. Starting safety and leading tackler T.J. Ward is questionable. As is starting defensive end Derek Wolfe and linebacker Brandon Marshall.

Kansas City’s offense has got off to great starts of late, but haven’t been able to finish. They haven’t scored a single point in the 2nd half of each of their last two games. I look for Andy Reid to get that fixed here and for the Chiefs to put together a full game offensively.

Denver inability to run the football has really been a problem. It also favors a Chiefs cover. Road teams who have been outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games and are averaging 70-95 ypg on the season are just 17-43 (28%) ATS since 1983 when facing an average run defense (95-125 ypg). Take Kansas City!

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Giants vs. Eagles Thursday Night Point Spread Prediction: December 22nd 2016

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Thursday Night Point Spread Pick: Giants -1.5 points (December 22nd 2016)

The Philadelphia Eagles are (2-9) in their last 11 games overall and have lost their last 5 games in a row. New York is (8-1) in their last 9 games.

Philadelphia beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 34-3 all the way back in Week 3 this season, in Philadelphia. This is the game that is skewing the spread today. Because of that game, the Eagles home win margin is +8.5, when it should be that high if you look at what they have done since that game, it has been terrible. The New York Giants are a much better football team than the Philadelphia Eagles and they will show that tonight as they go into Philadelphia and beat the Eagles by more than 2 points.

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Buccaneers vs. Saints Week 16 NFL Pick from Jesse Schule: December 24th 2016

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
Week 16 NFL Prediction: Under 52.5 points (December 24th 2016)

The Bucs have won five of their last six overall after coming up short in a 26-20 defeat at Dallas on Sunday night. They turned the ball over four times in that loss, putting their defense in a tough spot. Heading into last Sunday’s game the Bucs had won five straight, limiting opponents to an average of less than 13 points per game during that span. One of those wins came against New Orleans, and they picked off Drew Brees three times in a 16-11 home win. Brees is coming off a big game on the road at Arizona, but the Cardinals look like a team that has already thrown in the towel. The Bucs are still fighting for a playoff spot, and they should go all out here at the Super Dome. These two teams have gone under the total in 13 of the last 16 meetings, and the Saints have failed to reach the total in seven straight versus teams with a winning record. The Bucs have gone under in five of their last six road games.