Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 2 NFL Point Spread Pick: Bengals +3.5 points (September 18th 2016)
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The road team has actually won 4 of the last 5 in this AFC North rivalry and we give the Bengals a great shot to win this one. Cincy went into New York and beat the Jets which became even more impressive after watching the flyboys dominate Buffalo on the road Thursday night (game was not as close as the final score indicated). The Steelers also got a win (we were on them) but beating a Washington team that didn’t beat a single team with a winning record last year was not as impressive. However, with that game being on Monday Night and the entire country watching, people will definitely head to the windows to jump on Pitt. That’s why this line is higher than it should be. Last year the Steelers were a pick-em at home vs Bengals (Cincy won). This number (currently -3.5) is the highest it’s been for Pitt as a favorite vs Cincy since 2011. That doesn’t equate as the Bengals are just as good, if not better, than they have been in recent years. Also a little extra juice is added to this game as Cincy blew a lead in last year’s playoff and gave the Steelers a win with some a few boneheaded hits that led to personal fouls. Bengal QB Andy Dalton didn’t play in that game due to injury but when he’s the starter, the Bengals are 11-2 their last 13 games overall. This one stays tight and we like Cincinnati and the points.
Click here for the Bengals vs. Steelers Over-Under pick from Stephen Nover.
Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys
NFL Prediction: Cowboys +3 points (September 18th 2016)
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The Dallas Cowboys have been an awful bet at home, but for whatever reason they seem to bring it on the road. They should have beaten the Giants last week as they outgained them but had to settle for 4 field goals. I look for them to bounce back in Week 2 against a Washington Redskins team that was blasted 38-16 by Pittsburgh, and now they are on a short week after playing on Monday night. Home-field advantage has been a bad thing in this series as the road team is 5-0 SU in the last 5 meetings. The underdog is 27-9 ATS in the last 36 meetings. The Redskins are 8-25-2 ATS in their last 35 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Washington is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 September home games. The Redskins are 37-65 ATS in their last 102 games as a home favorite. Take Dallas.
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See why Tony George is betting the favorite in the Cowboys vs. Redskins game
Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos
Week 2 NFL Over-Under Pick: Over 46.5 points (September 18th 2016)
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Not going to lie, I’m really mad at myself for not getting this at the key number of 45. However, I still think this game should fly over. The Indianapolis Colts have ZERO defense. They can’t tackle and their secondary is atrocious. You could say that the Denver offense isn’t that explosive, but they had a chance to put up a ton of points against the Panthers and the Panthers have a great defense. The Broncos turned the ball over 3 times deep in Panther territory, where at worst, took minimum 9 points off the board. Andrew Luck has even stated that they need to score more early. This team knows its going to have to outscore teams in back and forth games instead of trying to have their defense step up because it is just too banged up. I expect CJ Anderson to have a HUGE game and this will open up the passing attack.
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Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos
Week 2 NFL Prediction: Colts +7 points (September 18th 2016)
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1* Indianapolis (4:25 ET): Here’s a trend for you: The Colts have covered NINE straight times when playing the Broncos! They have won eight of the nine games straight up as well. The ATS record is a perfect 4-0 in the “Andrew Luck era” and the last two wins were quite memorable. One was a 24-13 playoff victory in Denver (2015 Divisional Round) and then last year saw Indy hand the Broncos their first loss of the regular season (Week 9), 27-24 as four-point home dogs. Luck has a history of playing well against this Denver defense and I think he’ll perform well enough here to at least keep his team within the number – for a 10th straight time!
Denver was a nice winner for me on Opening Night as they did not allow Carolina to avenge Super Bowl 50. Instead, it was the Broncos winning again, 21-20, this time as three-point home dogs. Truth be told, it was a game the Broncos had no business winning as they turned the ball over three times and Carolina missed a GW FG attempt. With the win, it seems as if QB Trevor Siemian is getting a little bit “too much pub” from where I sit. I’m going to stick to my guns with the Broncos (who I predicted would regress severely in 2016) as I think they’ve gone from undervalued (in Week 1) to overvalued here.
Luck threw for almost 400 yards in Week 1 (4 TDs), but it was not enough as the Colts fell at home to the Lions, 39-35. They were three-point favorites in that contest. While I question the supporting cast around Luck, what is not up for debate is the QB’s incredible ATS record as an underdog. He is 16-10 ATS all-time taking points and this looks to be a generous number given where both teams were priced for their respective Week 1 matchups. Note that Denver has covered only two of the last seven times that they have been favored by 3.5 to 7 pts at home. My recommendation is to take the points here. 1* Indianapolis.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills – 8:25pm ET September 15th 2016
Week 2 Point Spread: The Buffalo Bills are a 1 point favorite over the New York Jets this Thursday Night with the over/under posted at 40.5 points.
Public Perception: 56% of the wagering public is betting that the Jets will cover the point spread over the Bills this evening. 58% believe that this game will stay under the posted over/under of 40.5 points.
Past Meetings: The last time these two teams met was on January 3rd, 2016. The Jets were a 2.5 point favorite and the over/under was 41 points. Buffalo covered the spread in that game as an underdog and the game stayed under the total. Final Score: BUF 22 NYJ 17
Side Betting Trends: Buffalo is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Buffalo is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC East. Buffalo is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on turf. New York is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September. New York is 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 road games. New York is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. New York is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Over/Under Betting Trends: The under is 4-0 in Jets last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in Jets last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The under is 4-0 in Jets last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The over is 5-0 in Jets last 5 games following a straight up loss. The under is 6-0 in Bills last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The under is 5-1 in Bills last 6 Thursday games. The over is 5-1 in Bills last 6 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. The under is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games overall.
Head-to-Head Betting Trends: The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Buffalo. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The home team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings. The Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Buffalo.
Betting Pick: Buffalo Bills -1
Over-Under Pick: Under 40.5 points
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Week 2 NFL Pick: Tampa Bay +7 (September 18th 2016)
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Setting the scene: Tampa looked impressive in its 31-24 win on the road at division rival Atlanta last week, a performance which has made us a believer. For this week at least. It’ll be a tall order to win back-to-back away from friendly confines to open the season, but the young and full of confidence Bucs will take their best shot and try to hit this reeling Cards team while it’s down.
Tampa Bay: Winston had four TD passes last week in a hostile environment and the second year-pro will be asked to duplicate that performance in another tough building. In all Winston was 23 of 33 for 281 yards, hooking up with four different players for major scores.
Arizona: We had a play on the UNDER in the Pats/Cards game on Sunday night. Arizona’s high-octane offense was slowed down by a New England defense which was ranked in the Top 10 a year ago. The game should have gone OVER obviously, but Chandler Catanzaro’s missed 47-yard FG with 41 seconds left to play sealed the home sides fate.
The bottom line: We also had the Patriots as the second part of a two-team 7-point teaser, getting down a few days earlier at +7. By closing the line moved to +9.5. Was last season a fluke for Carson Palmer? Only time will tell, however we didn’t see anything from the veteran or the Cardinals to warrant this large a spread, considering the talent and depth of their next opponent. While we wouldn’t be shocked by another outright upset, we’ll ultimately recommend to grab as many points as you can.