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Posts Tagged ‘Week 5 NFL Picks’

Carolina vs. Detroit Week 5 NFL Prediction from Mike Lundin: October 8th 2017

Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions
Week 5 NFL Pick: Detroit -130 odds (October 8th 2017)

This is a huge letdown spot for the Carolina Panthers after last week’s 33-30 upset victory as a 9-point dog at New England. Note that the Panthers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.

The Detroit Lions are coming off an upset win as well as they defeated the Vikings 14-7 at Minnesota last week. They forced three turnovers in that game, have forced an NFL-best 11 throughout the season and lead the league with a plus-9 in that category.

Carolina QB Cam Newton threw for three touchdown passes (and added a score on the ground) against the Pats, but he has a 5/5 TD/INT ratio on the season. I wouldn’t be confident to say he’s back to prime form after just one good performance.

The Lions veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford has been solid all season, throwing seven touchdown passes with only one interception. The Lions are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and this looks like a good spot to back Detroit.

My free pick is on Detroit Lions.

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Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Week 5 Over-Under Pick from Alex Smart: October 8th 2017

Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Week 5 NFL Over-Under Pick: Under 39 points (October 8th 2017)

The Bills defense continues to look strong as was the case last week in the win over the Falcons, holding Matt Ryan to 242 passing yards and in the previous week held down a good Broncos team for 17 points in a home win. The Bills D, has been solid  allowing an average of 13.5 ppg and I’m betting on more of the same this week vs a Bengals offense that despite of unloading vs lowly Cleveland last week for 31 points, did not score a TD in their first two games and are averaging just 16 ppg in offensive production.

Meanwhile, The Bengals defense that is allowing 16.7 ppg had no problem against the Browns nasty offense last week, allowing only 215 total yards, which included allowing just 45 rushing yards. Their defense has been of the top tier variety  in three of their four games and i’m betting will once again be stoppers this week vs Buffalos conservative attack. With that said, I’m expecting  a combined score that does not eclipse the total.

CINCINNATI is 16-4 UNDER  L/20 after scoring 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games .CINCINNATI is 11-3 UNDER  L/14 in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points with a combined average of 36 ppg getting scored. Both these teams have gone under in 4 of their 4 games.

NFL Road teams against the total like the Bills – after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a top-level team ( 75% or better ) playing a team with a losing record are 23-4 UNDER dating back 5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams against the total like the Bengals – after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 23-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the UNDER

Mike Lundin betting the Vikings -6.5 over the Texans in Week 5: October 9th 2016

TEXANS VS. VIKINGS BETTINGHouston Texans vs. Minnesota Vikings
Week 5 NFL Point Spread Prediction: Vikings -6.5 (October 9th 2016)

The Minnesota Vikings are still undefeated, despite losing QB Teddy Bridgewater and RB Adrian Peterson to injuries. They’re on an absolutely insane ATS run over the last couple of years and 4-0 ATS on the season. The bookmakers and the betting public will surely catch up sooner or later, but I like the Vikings to cover a touchdown here against the Houston Texans. Both teams rely on a solid D to bring home the wins, but the Texans are in trouble now with defensive end J.J. Watt (back) out for the season. They’re off a 27-10 home victory against Tennessee but lost its lone road game for the season in Week 3, a 27-0 shutout at New England.

Sam Bradford is doing a decent job under center for Minnesota with four TD passes and no picks while Houston’s Brock Osweiler has passed for five TDs but also been picked off six times. That won’t cut it here against a Vikings D that has allowed just 12.5 points per game on the season and the team has a league-best plus-10 in turnover margin.

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Jets vs. Steelers Week 5: Art Aronson betting Pittsburgh -7 on October 9th 2016

JETS VS. STEELERS WEEK 5New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 5 NFL Pick: Steelers -7 points (October 9th 2016)

Setting the scene: These teams are moving in opposite directions and we think those trends continues in Week 5 of the 2016/17 NFL regular season.

The Jets: They’re 1-3 SU/ATS. Last week they fell 27-17 at home to the Seahawks. It was a third straight loss for Gang Green as QB Ryan Fitzpatrick would finish just 23 of 41 for 261 yards, one TD and three INT’s. So far Fitzpatrick has ten INT’s to go with just four TD’s. The ground game stalled last week as well, finishing with just 58 yards. WR Eric Decker didn’t play because of injury and if he does manage to go on Sunday, clearly he won’t be at 100% capacity. New York averages 19.8 PPG, ranked 24th in the league. The defense concedes 26.2 PPG, ranked 22nd in the NFL.

The Steelers: After a humiliating defeat to the Eagles, Pittsburgh bounced back in a big way last week, destroying the Chiefs 43-14. QB Ben Roethlisberger was 22 of 27 for 300 yards, five TD’s and no INT’s. So far Big Ben has 11 TD’s and four INT’s on the year. RB Le’Veon Bell made his triumphant return after a three-game suspension and finished with 144 yards. So far Pittsburgh is averaging 27 PPG this year, while the defense concedes an average of 20 PPG, ranked 12th overall.

The bottom line: Note that New York is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 on the road and only 4-7 ATS after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Pittsburgh is 11-6 ATS in its last 17 at home and 13-9 ATS in its last 22 when playing the role of favorite. We think the home side rolls again this week, the Jets have more issues than just Fitzpatrick and all signs point to a blowout of epic proportions.

Week 5 NFL Pick: Matt Mohr betting the Cardinals over the 49ers on October 6th 2016

CARDINALS VS. 49ERSArizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
Week 5 NFL Pick: Cardinals -3 (October 6th 2016)

Injuries on both teams will play into this one with the Cards captain of the offense Carson Palmer going down last week with a concussion while the 49ners lost their hear and soul of their defense with NaVorro Bowman to an Achilles injury. The advantage on the injury front goes to AZ with Drew Stanton being in the system the past few years and getting valuable reps in the game last week but more importantly getting quality reps in practice this week. The 49ers defense will struggle to find a serviceable replacement for Bowman which will add the an already struggling defense. SF is giving up 390 on the defensive side of the ball and have struggled to stop the run giving up just under 200 to the Cowboys last week. I expect the Cards to follow the blueprint the Cowboys laid out and pound the ball which will help Stanton go over the top with some deep balls. The Cards are better than their 1-3 record and will build upon the already solid offensive stat of outgaining their opponent by 68 yards per game. Even without Palmer the Cards offense finds its groove against the porous niners D. Take the Cardinals to cover and cash in a winner.

MNF Point Spread: Chargers a 3 point favorite over the Steelers on October 12th 2015

STEELERS VS. CHARGERS MNF WEEK 5 POINT SPREADPittsburgh Steelers vs. San Diego Chargers
Week 5 MNF Point Spread: San Diego -3 Over/Under 45 (October 12th 2015)

ATS Trends:
Chargers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss. Chargers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Chargers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games on grass. Chargers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC. Steelers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games in October. Steelers are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 5.

Over/Under Trends:
Under is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 6-1 in Chargers last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 20-7 in Chargers last 27 vs. AFC. Under is 15-6 in Chargers last 21 games following a S.U. win. Under is 7-3 in Chargers last 10 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 8-2 in Steelers last 10 games following a S.U. loss. Over is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 games following a ATS loss. Over is 7-2 in Steelers last 9 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Under is 6-2 in Steelers last 8 road games. Under is 3-1-1 in Steelers last 5 games on grass.

Head-to-Head Trends:
Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Favorite is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

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