New York Jets vs. Arizona Cardinals
MNF Betting Pick: Cardinals -7 points (October 17th 2016)
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I’m going to roll the dice on the Cardinals to cover the touchdown spread at home against the Jets. It’s been a disappointing start to the season for Arizona, but I think this is a spot where they not only can beat the Jets, but really lay one on them. The Cardinals will have Carson Palmer back at quarterback and he should have a field day against a bad Jets secondary that has been vulnerable to the deep pass, something Arizona does extremely well. As for New York, they are really in a tough spot here. This will be the Jets 4th road game in the last 5 weeks and the injuries are starting to mount up on both sides of the ball. Keep in mind the Cardinals have had extra time to prepare here, having played on Thursday in Week 5. Give me Arizona -7!
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Redskins
Week 6 NFL Point Spread Pick: Redskins +3 (October 16th 2016)
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I like the Redskins as a home dog here. The Redskins put up over 400 yards of offense in both games last year . They have scored 23 points or more the last 4 meetings.
This season, the Eagles have a very efficient offense with rookie Carson Wentz, but there is going to be some regression taking place as teams study more film of Wentz. He has a 84% completion rate against the blitz and that number has to come back closer to the NFL average. Wentz has yet to get sacked from the blitz also. That is something else that has to change. Once he starts getting hit once or twice, some shaky throws should follow. Starting right tackle Lane Johnson just got suspended for 10 games so now they will have a rookie making his first start on the road. I expect the Redskins defense to be aggressive and bring the pressure.
The Eagles are 0-2 SU and ATS their L2 as a road favorite against the Redskins. Washington went 5-1 ATS as a home underdog last year.They are 8-2 ATS as a home underdog their L10 vs the NFC East. This year, the Skins lost their first game as a home dog then lost their 2nd game as a small favorite. Those two losses (Steelers and Cowboys) don’t look bad on paper now. Washington rallied to win their following three games giving them momentum going into this game on Sunday. While Jordan Reed might have to sit with another concussion, look out for Jamison Crowder who returned a punt for a touchdown last week and figures to be more active in the passing game. Speaking of the passing game, DeSean Jackson will be playing with a chip on his shoulder against Philly who dumped him after the 2014 season. Jackson Crowder caught 9 of 15 targets last year against the Eagles. Jackson only played in 1 game catching 4 balls for 60 yards and is averaging over 22 yards a reception against the Eagles in 3 career games.
I think the Redskins defense puts the pressure on Wentz and he makes some rookie mistakes. I also think the Redskins O-Line protects Kirk Cousins and he exposes the Eagles secondary. The only thing keeping me off of this game as a top rated play is the fact that the Eagles and Redskins have played two common opponents this year, Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Philly outgained Pitt by 175 yards and the Browns by 115 yards, while Washington got outgained by 53 yards against Pittsburgh and 79 yards against the Browns, giving Philly an edge there. Still, the Redskins are definitely worth a shot on Sunday. Be patient and see if you can get a +3 or possible +3.5 as there is a lot of money coming in on the Eagles this week. (1* Redskins)
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Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants
Week 6 NFL Over-Under Pick: Under 45 points (October 16th 2016)
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The Baltimore Ravens have scored just a total of 37 points through their last two games in home setbacks to Oakland and Washington. They’ll have a new offensive coordinator for this contest, but I don’t expect to see any significant improvements right away.
The Ravens have been doing alright at the defensive side of the ball though and are allowing only 17.6 points per game on the season. Here they’ll take on a New York Giants team that is coming off three consecutive defeats, and it managed only 16 points with a total of 221 yards of offense and just 14 first downs in a 23-16 loss at Green Bay on Sunday Night Football. They’ve scored more than 20 points just once this season.
Both Joe Flacco and Eli Manning have turned the ball over plenty of times with five scores and four picks each on the season. New York was without both of its top running backs against Green Bay and neither Shane Vereen (triceps) or Rashad Jennings (thumb) is 100 percent confirmed for this contest.
Under is 5-2 in Ravens’ last seven games overall with last season included and 4-1 in the Giants’ five games this season. I’m looking for a low-scoring game at MetLife Stadium Sunday afternoon.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks
Week 6 NFL Pick: Seattle -6 points (October 16th 2016)
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1* Free Play Seattle Seahawks.
Setting the scene: The Seahawks come out of their timely bye-week refreshed, refocused and sitting at 3-1 to start the year. The Falcons dropped their opener to the Bucs, but have since won four straight, including a 23-16 win at Denver last week. It’s hard to win on the road and even harder to do it in back-to-back weeks. We think Atlanta is finally primed for a letdown this Sunday.
The bottom line: This is a spot in which Atlanta has struggled in for bettors, going just 2-8 ATS over the last two season’s in weeks 5 through 9, while Seattle has dominated in this spot by going 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home fav of 3.5 to 7 points and 2-1 ATS following its bye. Consider a second look at the home side in this one.
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Week 6 MNF Point Spread: Philadelphia -3.5 Over/Under 50 (October 19th 2015)
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Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 6. Eagles are 12-25-1 ATS in their last 38 home games. Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Eagles are 6-16-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC. Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC East. Giants are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Giants are 30-14-2 ATS in their last 46 games in October. Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 games overall. Over is 8-2-1 in Eagles last 11 Monday games. Under is 8-2 in Eagles last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 11-3 in Eagles last 14 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 6-2 in Eagles last 8 games following a S.U. win. Over is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games overall. Over is 5-2 in Giants last 7 road games. Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games in October. Over is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games in Week 6.
Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia. Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Road team is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings. Giants are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills
Week 6 Betting Pick: Buffalo +3.5 (October 18th 2015)
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This line has been bet up from -1 to -3 and -3.5 at most books in favor of the Bengals. The betting public cannot get enough of the Bengals right now because they are 5-0 and 4-0-1 against the spread. But this is a bad spot for the Bengals, who are primed for a letdown following their huge win over the Seahawks last week. They trailed by 17 points in the 4th quarter against Seattle, only to fight back and force overtime, eventually winning 27-24 on a field goal in the extra session. I look for the Bengals to now come out flat against the Bills off such a huge win like that. Buffalo has one of the best defenses in the NFL. Aside from the game against the Patriots, they have allowed 14 points to the Colts, 14 to the Dolphins, 24 to the Giants, and 13 to the Titans. Cincinnati is a much better home team than a road team. The Bengals are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after covering the spread in 2 of their last 3 games overall. The Bills are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. Buffalo is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games after gaining less than 250 total yards in its last game. Take Buffalo.