Phoenix Suns vs. Atlanta Hawks
NBA Pick: Atlanta Hawks -7.5 (February 6th 2012)
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Off back-to-back bad losses, the Atlanta Hawks will be highly motivated for a win tonight when they host the lowly Phoenix Suns. I look for Atlanta to roll by double-digits behind an inspired effort.
Atlanta is still one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference at 16-8. Phoenix has become a bottom feeder in the Western Conference this season as they simply have not surrounded Steve Nash with enough talent. The Suns are 9-14 on the year, and they’re getting outscored by 7.2 points/game on the road.
Phoenix is 9-25 ATS in their last 34 when playing 8 or more games in 14 days. The Suns are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after 2 straight games where they were called for 18 or less fouls. The Suns are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Hawks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bet Atlanta Monday.
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Atlanta Hawks vs. San Antonio Spurs
NBA Pick: San Antonio Spurs -4.5 (January 25th 2012)
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The Spurs have been a tremendous wager at home this season and in this series. The Spurs are 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS at home where they are winning by an average of 11.6 points. The Spurs are 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS in their last 13 at home versus the Hawks. Those 13 wins have come by 14, 15, 29, 22, 13, 39, 16, 24, 14, 15, 6, 15, and 16 points for an average winning margin of 18.3 points.
The Hawks, who have been inconsistent on the road, are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Spurs have played back-to-back games on the road since enduring their first home loss Friday, and you can bet that loss isn’t sitting well with a team that went 36-5 at home last season. We’ll lay the points.
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Atlanta Hawks vs. Indiana Pacers
NBA Pick: Indiana Pacers -2.5 (January 11th 2012)
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The Indiana Pacers are showing awesome value tonight as small home favorite over the Atlanta Hawks. I’ll pull the trigger on an underrated Pacers team that has yet to lose at home this year. The only reason they are a small favorite tonight is because they are coming off a bad road loss.
Indiana has managed to open 6-3 this season despite playing six of their first nine games on the road. They are coming off a 10-point road loss at Philadelphia, which really isn’t a bad loss considering how well the 76ers have played in the early going. The Pacers are 3-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.7 points/game.
While I believe the Pacers are underrated this year, I also feel that the Hawks are a bit overrated right now due to their 7-3 start. This is a team that did not do much in the offseason, whereas the Pacers brought in several key players, including David West and George Hill. Indiana is the definition of a “team” with seven players averaging double-digits scoring.
This play falls into a system that is 58-24 (70.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (INDIANA) – off a road loss by 10 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The favorite is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bet Indiana Wednesday.
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Atlanta Hawks vs. New Jersey Nets
NBA Pick: Atlanta Hawks -4.5 (December 27th 2011)
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Atlanta is the last team to take the floor in the Eastern Conference this season as all other teams have played at least one game. I think this is an advantage as any extra preparation time this season is a big edge because of the limited preparation time heading in. There have been a few changes to the Hawks roster, notably the loss of Jamal Crawford but most everything else is in place. Atlanta will be without Kirk Hinrich for a while but point guard Jeff Teague is in control to run the floor.
New Jersey is coming off a win last night at Washington and I think it provides a perfect letdown opportunity. The Nets trailed by as many as 21 points before rallying to win thanks to a massive edge on the glass including an 18-8 advantage with offensive rebounds. The Nets shot only 39.5 percent from the floor including 23.1 percent from long range (6-26) and despite being the home opener and only the second game of the season, New Jersey could be mentally drained after last night.
The Hawks fell off last year as their regular season win total dropped by nine victories but despite bowing out in the second round yet again in the playoffs, they were able to finally take out nemesis Orlando in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. Whether they can carry that over into this season remains to be seen but this is a confident team. “We have a sign in the locker room, ‘No more excuses,’” coach Larry Drew said. “We’re at a point in our careers now where it’s time to take that next step.”
Getting off to a good start is priority number one for Atlanta and while it lost both meetings in New Jersey last season, the situation is much better here. The Nets closed last season by going 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games while going 2-8 ATS in their final 10 games when playing with no rest. The Hawks were just a game under .500 on the road last season which was their best road record in years so winning on the road is no longer an issue. 3* (501) Atlanta Hawks. Get more NBA picks for December 27th 2011 from Matt Fargo at Touthouse.com.
