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Posts Tagged ‘Boston Red Sox’

Ben Burns betting the ‘Under’ 9 runs in the Red Sox vs. Astros game on June 18th 2017

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros
MLB Pick: Under 9 runs -110 odds (June 18th 2017)
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1* FREE PLAY under Red Sox/Astros. Boston/Houston are a couple of the highest-scoring teams in the league and both of these starting pitchers have struggled at times this year. That’s why this total is as large as it is. However, I feel that the value swings the other way on Sunday night as I look for David Price and Joe Musgrove to battle into the latter innings. Price (1-1, 5.29 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) gave up three runs off four hits and four walks while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision against Phildalelphia on Tuesday.

Price is still working his way back from his elbow injury, but his velocity is actually up slightly from last season. Musgrove (4-4, 4.89 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) started the year slowly, but has steadily been progressing. Like his counterpart, he also returned from injury in his last start and he’d go on to give up two runs off five hits and one walk over 4.1 innings (Musgrove has now posted a quality start in four of his last five outings). Both pitchers have been trending in the correct direction, so recent performance suggests a pitchers duel on Sunday night. Consider the under.

Tigers vs. Red Sox Over-Under Odds & Pick from Will Rogers: June 11th 2017

Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox
MLB Over-Under Pick: Over 11 runs -110 odds (June 11th 2017)
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The set-up: The Boston Red Sox are beginning to take advantage of their surroundings in Fenway Park, taking the first two games of their weekend series with the Tigers by scores of 5-3 and 11-3. They go for a sweep tonight on ESPN, having won seven of their last eight at their legendary home park. The Tigers have now dropped three in a row with the team’s bullpen giving up 19 of 27 runs from the seventh inning on during the skid. Detroit is now 29-32 (4 1.2 games out in the AL Central) while the 34-27 Red Sox are three games back of the Yankees in the AL East.

The pitching matchup: Daniel Norris (2-4 & 4.48 ERA) starts for Detroit, opposed by Boston’s Drew Pomeranz (6-3 & 4.02 ERA).Norris has not earned a win in his last six outings (he’s 0-3 but the team 3-3), after allowing four runs (three earned) over six innings in a 5-3 home loss to the Angels last Tuesday. He made his 2017 season debut against Boston back on April 9 but did not factor in the decision after giving up three runs on even hits over 6 1/3 innings (Red Sox won 7-5). Norris is also winless in four career appearances (three starts) against the Red Sox, going 0-2 with a 6.60 ERA. Pomeranz has begun to turn things around, having won his last three starts. Prior to that, he had failed to get through four innings in three straight starts (7.36 ERA) but he won 5-4 at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, tossing five innings of two-run ball. That makes it three in a row, after victories over the White Sox and Texas in his previous two starts, while giving up three runs in 13 innings along with 19 Ks. Pomeranz is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in three games (two starts) against the Tigers in his career.

The pick: Norris owns a 4.86 ERA over his last six and Detroit is just 13-20 on the road, allowing 5.36 RPG on the season. As noted, Boston has won seven of its last eight in Fenway, while averaging 9.0 runs in those seven wins (got shut out in the lone loss). Pomeranz may be 4-1 at home in 2017 but his ERA is 4.11 I’ll play the Over

Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB Betting Pick from Teddy Covers: June 8th 2017

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
MLB Betting Pick: Boston +108 odds (June 8th 2017)
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Teddy is heating up RIGHT NOW, riding a 67% All Sports Run over the past four days He’s locked & loaded with his 10* Big Ticket MLB Game of the Week for Thursday!  Don’t miss out!

David Price spent the first two months of the season on the DL following an elbow strain in spring training.  His first start back in the big leagues was a little bit rusty, lasting only five innings against the White Sox.  Last time out, Price threw a seven inning gem against the Orioles, allowing just three hits in the process.

All the postgame quotes following that contest scream ‘bet-on’ for David Price moving forward.  Price: “I felt good. Just trying to make better pitches. I don’t want to be out there throwing 100 pitches or 90 pitches through five innings. I was back to being efficient, getting a lot of early outs and not giving up a whole lot of runs.”  Red Sox manager John Farrell: “He was outstanding. He was in complete control, and he got into a great rhythm.”  Orioles manager Buck Showalter, after his team got dominated: “He’s one of those guys who’s adding pitches as he goes on in his career. He’s one of the best.”

Michael Pineda has a value problem.  His advanced metric stats are elite, ranked #7 among all MLB pitchers with an xFIP of 3.17 over the past three seasons.  But his actual ERA is 4.47 during that span, largely due to one significant weakness – his propensity to allow home runs.  Fly balls against Pineda have flown out of the park, leading to this ugly stat: of the 95 pitchers who have worked at least 300 innings since the start of 2015, Pineda ranks dead last in his rate of home runs allowed to fly balls allowed.

The Yankees lineup is averaging more than a full run per game less against opposing lefties compared to righties.  And if the Yankees can’t get to Price, they’ll have a hard time getting their lineup going against the Red Sox bullpen, anchored by a rested, ready and truly elite Craig Kimbrel, who has a ridiculous ratio of 53 strikeouts compared to eight hits allowed in 26.2 innings of work this season.  Live dog here!  Take the Red Sox.