Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Pick: Over 8 runs -110 odds (September 28th 2011)
A struggling Twins team ends their season on Wednesday when they host a surging Royals squad who is putting the finishing touches on a good September. Carl Pavano makes the start for Minnesota. He’s 8-13 with a 4.48 ERA and 18 Overs in 32 starts. Pavano faced the Royals on September 13th allowing four runs and 11 hits in seven innings. Overall, he’s 8-7 with a 5.62 ERA in 16 starts against the Royals with 10 of them going over the total. Billy Butler (20-45), Melky Cabrera (4-11), Johnny Giavotella (2-3), Jason Kendall (10-35), Mitch Maier (5-16) and Salvador Perez (1-3) all hit Pavano well. The Royals are hitting over .320 as a team in their last eight games and averaging nearly six runs per contest over that span. They have stayed Under the total just once since September 14th as their young hitters seem to be rounding into form. The Twins’ bullpen has an ERA near 4.60 at home this season and has converted only 60% of their save opportunities.
Bruce Chen is 6-5 with a 4.25 ERA in 11 road starts. He shut down the Twins at home on the 13th allowing just two hits and one walk in eight innings, however Chen’s last start in Minnesota was a rocky one allowing four runs and nine hits in five innings. Jason Kubel (4-11), Trevor Plouffe (2-6), Denard Span (5-10) and Danny Valencia (8-14) all hit the southpaw well. Minnesota has had a nice spurt of Overs, hitting six straight and eight of their last nine. They’ve scored five runs or more in four of their last six games. The Kansas City bullpen has 25 losses and 20 blown saves this season, so they are a bit inconsistent. Look for both offenses to continue to hit the ball well in their season finale tonight. Get more MLB picks from Steve Merril at Touthouse.com.