MLB Pick: Colorado Rockies +105 odds (May 13th 2013)
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It’s time to knock out a few wrong perceptions with this matchup. The Cubs are a good home team, right? The Rockies are a bad road team, right? The Rockies can’t beat southpaws, right?

Wrong on all three counts.

Chicago is 7-11 at Wrigley Field this season. The Rockets are 11-7 on the road. They just beat a hot lefty in Jamie Garcia this past Sunday. Now they get to face a second straight southpaw in Travis Wood.

I like taking a price with the better team and that’s the case in this matchup. Colorado is fifth in runs scored. The Cubs rank 24th. The Cubs don’t have anybody close to the stature of Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez.

Tulowitzki is tied for first in the National League in RBIs with 31, he’s sixth in batting at .324 and tied for seventh in homers with eight. A healthy Tulowitzki makes the Rockies respectable and Tulowitzki is healthy this season.

The Cubs are in a rebuilding stage. They are returning home following a nice win Sunday against the Nationals in Washington D.C. The youthful Cubs may not be able to handle that victory too well especially returning to the Windy City. They are 9-23 following a victory. Chicago has dropped six of its last nine home games.

The pitching matchup is Juan Nicasio against Travis Wood, who seems much improved but is not in Garcia’s class. Wood has faced two easy offenses during his last three starts drawing the Marlins and Padres.

Nicasio isn’t going to lack for motivation as he could be pitching for his spot in the rotation. Nicasio, though, has excellent potential. He’s 7-1 with a 2.23 ERA when pitching six innings or more. His problem this season is building up his endurance after pitching only 58 innings last year. He was solid in his last start giving up two runs on two hits in five innings against the Mets.

Even if Nicasio can’t reach the sixth or seven inning, I like Colorado’s bullpen much better than the Cubs. Kevin Gregg has been the best closer the Cubs have had this season, but Chicago’s middle relief and setup guys have been horrible headed by the egregious Carlos Marmol.

Marmol alone is reason enough to fade the Cubs when they are favored.

(Editor’s note: Stephen Nover is 11-5 on his last 16 NBA plays and has his Second Round Playoff Game of the Year going today. Stephen also has cashed six of his last eight baseball plays and has his Top of the Ticket play going today. Both are available for purchase individually or as a package.)

Texas Rangers vs. Chicago Cubs
MLB Pick: Texas -135 odds (May 6th 2013)
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Preview: The Rangers and Cubs will take a mutual off day and make up one of their postponed games on Monday night with Nick Tepesch against Scott Feldman. Tepesch draws the matchup against an atrocious Cubs offense that has posted the third-worst on-base percentage against right handers at a measly .293. The hitter-friendly offensive conditions at Wrigley should not affect Tepesch, who is inducing ground balls at a 56.2% clip, which is well above league average. He has issued just five walks in his 28.2 innings of work and the Cubs are batting just .239 as a team. The Cubs have lost four straight, dropping to 11-20, while the Rangers have won three in a row and are 20-11. Losing an off day shouldn’t be a problem for the Rangers, who know that they’re going to need every win possible, while the Cubs may not come ready to play since they aren’t going to be much of a factor.

Ultimately, this play is a fade of Scott Feldman. His peripheral stats indicate that he cannot last pitching in a hitter-friendly park at Wrigley. He has a 3.34, but that’s mostly smoke and mirrors, with a FIP of 5.09 and a xFIP of 4.30. Both of those numbers signal that regression is imminent. Opposing hitters are batting just .216 off of him, which is well below his career batting average against of .270. Part of that is the league change, but another part of that is a string of luck that is going to run out sooner rather than later. Feldman’s last two starts have come against San Diego and Miami, two very weak offenses. In his three other starts, he has allowed 14 runs in 10 innings with 10 walks and 10 strikeouts. The Rangers are not a weak offense. If you found this Rangers vs. Cubs pick and preview from Bryan Leonard useful, be sure to purchase his premium picks today at Touthouse.com

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
MLB Pick: Cincinnati Reds -155 odds (May 5th 2013)
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Preview: On Sunday the Free MLB System pick is on the Reds. Game 907 at 2:20 eastern. The Reds won for us as a free Play on Saturday and we are going right back to the well with them again today. The Reds are backed with another solid system. We want to play on certain road favorites the last 2 seasons that are off a road favored win by 2 or more runs, if they scored 5 or more runs and are taking on an opponent off a home dog loss by 2 or more runs that scored 4 or less runs on 4 or less hits, These road favorites are 15-3 the last 2 years and 9-1 if the total is more than 8. The Reds have M. Latos going today and he went 7 strong allowing just 2 runs in his only start here in Chicago. He has won 6 of his last 8 Road May starts and take on E. Jackson who has lost 5 of 8 home May starts and has lost his last 4 home starts overall allowing a hideous 17 run sin 15 innings. The Reds have dominated the series of late taking 13 of the last 15. On Sunday we have 3 Powerful System Plays up. In the NBA a Double System Side with Round 2 Systems, one is cashing 94% since 1991. NBA Sides 12-5. In Bases we have an Afternoon Totals system that has cashed 34 of 43 times and has a perfect Angle. There is also the Sunday night ESPN MLB play from a Perfect System dating to 1994. Jump on Now as we celebrate Chinco De Mayo and end the week big. For the free play take the Cincinnati Reds. RV

San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs
MLB Pick: Cubs -142 odds (May 2nd 2013)
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The Cubs have taken two of three at home against the Padres, and they wrap up this four game series Thursday at Wrigley.

Travis Wood will toe the rubber for the home team, and he’s coming off a win his last time out. Wood (2-1, 2.25 ERA) allowed two runs on just three hits over six innings in a 3-2 win over the Fish in Miami.

Wood has been a better pitcher during the day, putting up better numbers in the afternoon than he has under the lights at night. He’s posted a 3.89 ERA in 28 starts in day games since 2010, significantly better than the 4.52 ERA at night.

The Padres will send Eric Stults to the mound, and he’s coming off a terrible outing. Stults (2-2, 5.67 ERA) allowed five runs on four hits in just four innings, and didn’t factor in the decision in an 8-7 ballgame that the Padres rallied to win over the Giants. He wasn’t as fortunate in his previous start, as he gave up five runs on eight hits over seven innings, and got tagged with a loss as the Padres fell 5-0 to San Francisco.

Stults has only had one start at Wrigley in recent seasons, and that didn’t go well. He would take the loss after allowing four runs on seven hits in six innings.

The Cubs should be able to get to the left-hander here at Wrigley on Thursday, and I’m expecting another blowout win for the Cubbies.

Take Chicago.