Cincinnati Bearcats vs. South Florida
Betting Prediction: Cincinnati -10 (October 24th 2014)
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I like Cincinnati to win this game and cover. This is a revenge game from last year when Cincy lost SU 26-20 as a 10.5 point road favorite @ South Florida. It was embarrassing for them as they had 4 costly turnovers in that game and they should have won easily, after outgaining South Florida 350-241.
Cincinnati has the better offense by 132 yards over South Florida and they have played some tough defenses in Miami Fl, Memphis, and Ohio State this season. For South Florida, this is a team that continues to struggle on offense as they have gotten outgained in 5 of their 7 games this season and overall they are losing the stats by 107 yards a game. The QB’s of South Florida are only completing 46% of their passes with a 6TD/8 INT mark and is no comparison to Gunner Kiel for Cincy, who has a wide arsenal of weapons to spread the ball too. He is the AAC’s top rated QB is TD’s and in Pass efficiency.
Now, Cincinnati’s defense as struggled unexplainably. Last season they only gave up 21 ppg, and in 2012 they only allowed 18.5 ppg. This year, they are giving up 34.5 ppg and I think that the defense is much better than we are seeing. They have experience in the front 7 and the secondary. They do have new defensive coordinators which can explain for some of it, but I know HC Tommy Tubberville prides on defense and they will start to improve. This is a great game for the defense to tighten up vs. a South Florida team that has only scored over 17 points once this season. That was last week vs. Tulsa when they actually got outgained by 76 yards so don’t let the 38-30 score fool you. Tulsa was actually up 30-14 in the 3rd quarter. After battling so hard to come back and get the win, I expect a letdown to be in store tonight as this is South Florida’s 3rd road game in 4 weeks now. With Cincy being 8-2 ATS the last 10 meetings, I look for them to get their revenge in this game and smash the gas on Friday night.
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