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Posts Tagged ‘Cincinnati Bearcats’

Cincinnati vs. South Florida Football Prediction from Brandon Shively: October 24th 2014

Brandon Shively - College Football PicksCincinnati Bearcats vs. South Florida
Betting Prediction: Cincinnati -10 (October 24th 2014)
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I like Cincinnati to win this game and cover. This is a revenge game from last year when Cincy lost SU 26-20 as a 10.5 point road favorite @ South Florida. It was embarrassing for them as they had 4 costly turnovers in that game and they should have won easily, after outgaining South Florida 350-241.

Cincinnati has the better offense by 132 yards over South Florida and they have played some tough defenses in Miami Fl, Memphis, and Ohio State this season. For South Florida, this is a team that continues to struggle on offense as they have gotten outgained in 5 of their 7 games this season and overall they are losing the stats by 107 yards a game. The QB’s of South Florida are only completing 46% of their passes with a 6TD/8 INT mark and is no comparison to Gunner Kiel for Cincy, who has a wide arsenal of weapons to spread the ball too. He is the AAC’s top rated QB is TD’s and in Pass efficiency.

Now, Cincinnati’s defense as struggled unexplainably. Last season they only gave up 21 ppg, and in 2012 they only allowed 18.5 ppg. This year, they are giving up 34.5 ppg and I think that the defense is much better than we are seeing. They have experience in the front 7 and the secondary. They do have new defensive coordinators which can explain for some of it, but I know HC Tommy Tubberville prides on defense and they will start to improve. This is a great game for the defense to tighten up vs. a South Florida team that has only scored over 17 points once this season. That was last week vs. Tulsa when they actually got outgained by 76 yards so don’t let the 38-30 score fool you. Tulsa was actually up 30-14 in the 3rd quarter. After battling so hard to come back and get the win, I expect a letdown to be in store tonight as this is South Florida’s 3rd road game in 4 weeks now. With Cincy being 8-2 ATS the last 10 meetings, I look for them to get their revenge in this game and smash the gas on Friday night.

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South Florida vs. Cincinnati Football Pick from Jack Jones: October 24th 2014

Jack Jones - College Football PickSouth Florida Bulls vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
College Football Pick: Cincinnati -10.5 (October 24th 2014)
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While the Bearcats have been blown out three times this season, all three of those games came against quality opponents in Ohio State, Memphis and Miami, and two of them came on the road. After that gauntlet of a schedule, playing teams like SMU and South Florida have to feel like a breeze for the Bearcats. I look for them to make easy work of the Bulls at home in this one.

The Bearcats got back in the win column last week with a 41-3 win at hapless SMU. It outgained the Mustangs 508-276 for the game. The defense put forth their best effort of the season in limiting SMU to just a field goal while forcing four turnovers. They held the Mustangs scoreless after the first quarter and cruised to a 38-point victory.

Now Cincinnati returns home, where it has one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the country. The Bearcats have gone 5-1 or better at home in five of the past six seasons. They went 6-0 in 2008, 6-0 in 2009, 5-1 in 2011, 6-1 in 2012 and 5-1 in 2013. So, in those five seasons combined, they sported a 28-3 record at home. They are a completely different animal inside the friendly confines of Paul Brown Stadium.

Despite getting five of their first seven games at home this season, the South Florida Bulls have been blown out by double-digits three times. Their only three wins have come against Western Carolina, Connecticut and Tulsa. One of those teams is an FCS opponent, while the other two are among the worst teams in the FBS. They also only won those three games all by 8 points or fewer.

This Cincinnati offense is putting up big numbers in 2014, averaging 34.3 points and 443.0 yards per game. Gunner Kiel is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. He is completing 59.4 percent of his passes for 1,853 yards with 19 touchdowns against six interceptions. He should have his way with a USF defense that is giving up 29.0 points and 418.3 yards per game.

I just don’t believe that South Florida has the offensive firepower to keep up with Kiel and company in this one. The Bulls are averaging just 21.7 points and 311.3 yards per game to rank 120th out of 128 teams in total offense. That’s really bad when you consider the opponents they have faced thus far are giving up averages of 28.4 points and 400 yards per game.

I believe this line has been set lower than it should be because USF beat Cincinnati 26-20 at home last year. However, a closer look at the box score shows that the Bearcats should have won, but gave it away. They outgained the Bulls 350-241 for the game, but the Bulls got two non-offensive touchdowns on four Cincinnati turnovers, which was the difference in the game. Don’t expect the Bearcats to make the same kind of mistakes at home this time around.

Cincinnati is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games off a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better. The Bulls are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win. South Florida is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game. Cincinnati is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 meetings with South Florida. Bet Cincinnati Friday.

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Miami Florida vs. Cincinnati Over-Under Pick from Steve Janus: October 11th 2014

Steve Janus - College Football PickMiami Florida Hurricanes vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Football Betting Pick: Over 57.5 points (October 11th 2014)
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I think we are catching a favorable total here due to both of these teams coming off a bad offensive performance last week. Cincinnati scored just 14 points at home to Memphis and Cincinnati managed just 17 points at Georgia Tech. I look for both teams to get back on track and have this game flying over the total.

Those that have watched Cincinnati this season, are well aware of how bad they are defensively. The Bearcats actually rank 144th against both the run (255.3 ypg) and the pass (306.5 ypg). This should have Miami scoring at will and should lead to a lot of quick scores.

The Hurricanes have a lot better defensive numbers and there could be some concern with them ranking 6th in the country against the pass but a lot of that is due to who they have played. Four of their six opponents have attempted 40+ rush attempts against them. Even with starting quarterback Gunner Kiel not expected to play, I still think this Bearcats’ offense has a lot of explosive players, plus they have an experienced backup in Munchie Legaux, who has 13 career starts.

It’s also worth noting that these two teams haven’t played each other since 1998 so neither team is going to be familiar with the opposing offense, which is a big disadvantage for the two defenses. BET THE OVER 57.5!

Cincinnati vs. Ohio State Football Betting Pick from Jesse Schule: September 27th 2014

Jesse Schule - College Football PickCincinnati Bearcats vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Betting Pick: Cincy +17.5 (September 27th 2014)
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It didn’t take long for the public to jump back on the Ohio State bandwagon. After the Buckeyes failed to impress against Navy in their opener, they lost outright to Virginia Tech following week. But a 66-0 blowout win over Kent State has bettors backing the Buckeyes once again. They opened as a -13 point favorite at home versus Cincinnati, which would be a fair number in my opinion. Public money has since pushed the line up to -17.5, and I think that’s asking too much of a Buckeyes team that isn’t as strong as it was last year.

Cincinnati is undefeated, with wins over Toledo and Miami (OH). Sophomore QB Gunner Kiel has burst onto the scene throwing for 689 yards and 10 TDs in the first two starts of his college football career. He’s face an OSU defense that surrendered 52 points against Navy and VT in it’s first two games of the season.

Cincy’s senior RB Hosey Williams is averaging six yards per carry through the first two games of the season, and he ran for over 100 yards in the win over the Rockets. He may be able to find some holes in a Buckeyes defense that surrendered 495 yards on the ground in it’s first two games.

The Bearcats won nine games last year, and they only faced one ranked opponent. They lost in overtime by a score of 31-24 to the Louisville Cardinals. Cincinnati is 2-4 against Top 25 teams dating back to 2009, but the average margin of defeat in those four losses is less than five points.

I expect to see a competitive game here in Columbus tonight.