Louisville Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Betting Pick: Cincinnati +3 -110 odds (December 5th 2013)
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Thursday Night College Football action in Cincinnati as the Bearcats take on Louisville in a marquee matchup game on ESPN. The Bearcats are on fire winning 6 in a row, and powered by a stellar offensive line and a rock star performance all season by QB Brandon Kay. Interesting because the other star on the field tonight is QB Teddy Bridgewater for Louisville. This is a big game tonight.
While everyone and their dog is predicting how high up the draft board Bridgewater is going to go, he has other issues in the short term, and that is facing a Cincy defense that since yielding 45 points at Illinois in an ugly early loss, has stepped up and dominated games allowing just 15 ppg, and they also shut down the run game and rush the passer very well. Interesting that Bridgewater has 25 TD passes this year but only 7 on the road, and the Cards are usually over valued on the line, which explains their 1-6 ATS mark on the road.
At days end in ANY College football game, one who handicaps clearly understands 2 things, you are betting a number and not a game, and the battle on the field is not ruled by superstars, but by the guys in the trenches, especially in big games. That favors the home team big time here, who by the way have covered 4 out of the last 5 in this series. Neither team has faced a tough schedule and both lost to teams they shouldn’t have, so I call this damn near even, a battle of field position and two pretty good defenses.
I like the beef up front on both sides of the ball for Cincy, I like the home field, I like Tubberville and the job he has done at Cincy this year, and I like their QB Kay who has the ability to trade punches with Bridgewater through the air, as he has had back to back 400 yard games through the air, protected by a great offensive line. Whole world likes Louisville on the short number with BCS Bowl implications on the line with a win and a Central Florida loss, but I sniff a barking dog here. Contrarian play here, but I lean Bearcats at home in a thriller (last year was an OT game) to get it done and close out the seniors with a winning send off at home tonight against a rival.
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