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Posts Tagged ‘Cleveland Browns’

Browns vs. Colts Week 3 NFL Pick from Mike Lundin: September 24th 2017

Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis Colts
Week 3 NFL Pick: Cleveland -117 odds (September 24th 2017)
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The Cleveland Browns won just one game all of last season and they’re heading into Week 3 of the current season still eyeing their first win. The Indianapolis Colts are in the same spot after back-to-back losses to the Rams and the Cardinals, but I think the Browns will be the team to come out of this contest with the W.

The Colts failed to hold onto a 13-3 fourth quarter lead in a tough 16-13 overtime home loss to the Cardinals last weekend. They’ll once again be without QB Andrew Luck and his replacement Jacoby Brissett completed just 20-of-37 passes for 216 yards with no touchdowns and one interception against Arizona. They couldn’t get their running game going either as the team amassed just a total of 76 yards on 29 carries Here they’ll face a Cleveland D that has held two tough opponents in Pittsburgh and Baltimore to an average of 313.5 yards per game on the season.

The Browns actually outgained the Ravens 386-337 in last week’s 24-10 defeat but gave away the ball way to easy and five turnovers ruined any chance of winning the game. Starting QB DeShone Kizer threw three picks before leaving the game with migraine, but I expect the rookie to be healthy for this game do much better.

Cleveland has not been favored on the road since giving five points at Jacksonville back in 2014. The books have made the Browns a favorite here for a reason, and I’m backing the Browns to win outright.

My free pick is on the Cleveland Browns.

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Week 1 NFL Pick: Jones betting the Browns +9 points on September 10th 2017

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
Point Spread Pick for Week 1: Browns +9 (September 10th 2017)
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The Cleveland Browns have been the laughing stock of the league for the last decade.  But I like what management is doing now stockpiling draft picks over the past few seasons and setting themselves up for the future the right way.  It will only be a year or two before this team is a serious contender.

The Browns went 1-15 SU & 3-12-1 ATS last year, so the betting public made a killing going against them.  Oddsmakers couldn’t set their lines high enough.  Now this line of +9 is clearly inflated in Week 1 knowing that the public is only going to keep fading them.  I think there is some serious line value on the Browns this week as a result.

Conversely, the Pittsburgh Steelers are a popular choice to win the Super Bowl in 2017.  That perception only inflates the number a little more.  I think the Steelers will be great, but asking them to go on the road in a division rivalry and win by double-digits just to cover the 9-point spread is asking too much.

Ben Roethlisbrger has some of the craziest home/road splits over the past three years.  In 22 home games, he is 17-5 completing 68.2% of his passes with a 62-to-20 TD/INT ratio.  In 26 road games over that same span, he is 15-11 completing 64.7% of his passes with a 25-to-24 TD/INT ratio.

Teams that won zero or one game the previous season have gone 67% ATS in Week 1 dating back to 1980.  Also, underdogs of 8 or more points in Week 1 have gone 30-15 (67%) ATS since 1997.  The Browns are one of three teams that fits this system in Week 1.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

Jack Jones has put together a HUGE 732-636 Football Run long-term! He is on a solid 25-16 NFL Run after cashing in the Chiefs +9 Thursday while also riding a SWEET 30-10 NFL Totals Run into Week 1 action!

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NFL Preseason Pick: Teddy Covers betting the Saints +3 points on August 10th 2017

New Orleans Saints vs. Cleveland Browns
NFL Preseason Pick: New Orleans +3 points (August 10th 2017)
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Hue Jackson went 0-4 SU and ATS in his lone preseason as the head coach of the Oakland Raiders.  Jackson followed that 0-fer up with an 0-4 SU and ATS mark in his first season with the Browns last year.  Much of that was circumstantial – the Browns Week 1 roster last year had more rookies on it than any non-expansion team in NFL history.

But when we’re talking about a ‘major steam’ line move – this game opened at pick em and is now painted Cleveland -3 with extra vig to support the favorite – that type of track record certainly doesn’t inspire confidence in this bettor!  Whatever value their might have been with the Browns at pick em or -1 is long gone now…..

  • NFL PRESEASON HANDICAPPER RECORDS – CLICK HERE

Most pointspread decisions — whether in the NFL Preseason or Regular season or Playoffs – are decided after halftime.  The mainstream media and the betting markets often play far too much attention to the ‘how much playing time are the starters going to get?’ announcements, as opposed to the ‘who is going to be on the field after halftime?’ question.

And much like last year in August, the Browns second half rotations look spotty at best – limited skill position talent, questionable offensive line chemistry and a QB rotation that doesn’t inspire much confidence.  Rookie DeShone Kizer and fourth stringer ‘never will be’ Kevin Hogan are slated for the second half of this game, not exactly a ‘bet-on’ duo.

Drew Brees won’t see the field tonight, but Chase Daniel, who has been excellent in preseasons past is likely to get extended playing time.  And the Saints have a legitimate battle for the 3rd string job – a ‘bet-on’ situation in August – between a pair of guys who have plenty of experience against 3rd string defenses in August, Garrett Grayson and Ryan Nassib.  That duo is most assuredly not a ‘bet-on’ tandem in September, but in August, at +3, they’re a ‘bet-no’ duo all the way!  Take the Saints.

Teddy is ready to kick off the preseason with a bang, locked and loaded with a rock solid Trifecta of winners, including his very first 10* Big Ticket Report of the young season.  Get onboard right now to lock in with this proven preseason performer!