Milwaukee Bucks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
NBA Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 (January 25th 2013)
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The Milwaukee Bucks are getting too much respect from oddsmakers as a 4.5-point favorite at Cleveland tonight. I’ll gladly side with the value and the home underdog Cavaliers in this one.

Cleveland has really started to play well over the past week. It has won two of its last three with a road win at Portland and a home victory over Boston. Its lone loss during this stretch came at Utah by 11, which is a tough place to play.

Milwaukee comes in overvalued due to its 3-game winning streak that has come against the likes of the struggling Suns, Blazers and 76ers. In fact, the Bucks have only beaten one team currently with a winning record in January, so they have really benefited from an easy schedule.

The Cavaliers have outperformed the Bucks in two meetings this season. They lost at home to Milwaukee 86-90 as a 3-point dog in their first meeting on December 14th, but would get their revenge with a 94-82 road win on December 22nd as an 8-point dog.

This play falls into a system that is 59-29 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) – hot team – having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.

Milwaukee is 46-74 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996. The Bucks are 6-17 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Bet Cleveland Friday.

NBA Picks: January 14th 2013
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Sacramento Kings
Prediction: Sacramento Kings -5.5
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Facing quality opposition, the Kings have struggled of late. Most recently, they were blown out by Miami on Saturday. Stepping down in class and with the schedule in their favor, this game provides an opportunity to get back on track.

Now 37-17 my last 54 NBA selections, I successfully played against the Cavaliers last night. As I had hoped, they got blown out by a desperate Laker team.
Kyrie Irving commented …

“…they did a great job of containing me and everybody on the team. We just got punched in the mouth in the first quarter. We just didn’t have that fight in the first quarter, and it kind of killed us the rest of the game.”

Note that the Cavs have only one win in 11 tries this season, when playing the second of back-to-back games. Six of those 10 losses came by a minimum of seven points. While its true that the starters didn’t see extremely heavy minutes last night, (Irving was the only to play more than 30 mins) I still see this being a fairly difficult scheduling spot.

The Cavs will be playing their third game in four days and their seventh game since 1/4. That’s quite a busy stretch of games for a young struggling team which is thousands of miles away from home. I won’t be surprised if it catches up with them a bit here. Irving, who has been “under the weather” recently, is a talented and exciting player. However, Cleveland clearly misses Varejao.

The Kings recently won (97-94 on 1/2) at Cleveland and they’re now 8-2 ATS the last 10 in the series.

While the Cavs are now 5-18 on the road, the Kings can climb back above the .500 mark at home with a win. Knowing they’ve got Washington on deck after this, the Kings are aware that this this is their chance to build some momentum. I expect their best effort. Consider laying the points.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
NBA Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks -2.5
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The Bucks are showing some great value as a small favorite against a very poor Cavaliers team. Cleveland has gained some respect from the oddsmakers with their 100-94 home win over the Lakers on Tuesday, but when you consider just how bad Los Angeles is playing that win doesn’t really mean anything. Cleveland came back on Wednesday and lost to the Pacers by 15-points.

The return of Kryie Irving definitely makes the Cavaliers a more competitive team, but they are just 2-9 in the 11 games that he has played this year.

Cleveland really seemed to wear down in that second half against the Pacers, where they managed to score just 23 points over the final 24 minutes. While they will be playing on a full days rest, this will be their fifth game in the last eight days. Hard to see them playing with a lot of energy tonight, especially with a huge showdown against the Knicks on tap tomorrow at Madison Square Garden.

The Bucks enter this game on a three game winning streak, which included a 97-88 win at Brooklyn. They come in having won eight straight against the Cavaliers.

Milwaukee is a solid 31-16 ATS in their last 47 road games off a home win, while the Cavaliers are just 1-9 ATS in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. BET THE BUCKS!

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NBA Picks: November 7th 2012
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors
Pick: Golden State Warriors -4
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This is a good spot for Golden St. to bounce back after its loss at Sacramento on Monday. The Warriors have alternated wins and losses so far this season as they opened with a win at Phoenix, followed that up with a home loss to Memphis then a win at the Clippers before their most recent setback. Three of their first four games have taken place on the road and they will be in search of their first home win of the season before again heading on the road to face the Lakers on Friday. Cleveland split its first two games of the season at home and has also split its first two games of this current six-game road trip. The Cavaliers are coming off an impressive win at Los Angeles on Monday but it was not as impressive as the final score shows. Cleveland was the beneficiary of 25 Clippers turnovers which led to 18 more shots from the floor which is a very big disparity. Cleveland was outshot 52.7 percent to 43.5 percent which shows how much those turnovers in fact hurt Los Angeles. Wins can bring out confidence in young teams but I’m still not sold the Cavaliers can win consistently on the road after going 10-23 a season ago. The Warriors were hurt last season by numerous injuries and that was the plight early on this year but Stephen Curry and Andrew Bogut are both back and looking fairly healthy. Golden St. has won all three meetings against Cleveland since LeBron James left and it has won all three of those by double-digits including an 18-point win in the lone home meeting. Both teams are still very young but we give the edge to the Warriors who will be the more hungry team tonight in search of their first victory on their home floor. Play (524) Golden St. Warriors