Milwaukee Bucks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
NBA Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 (January 25th 2013)
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The Milwaukee Bucks are getting too much respect from oddsmakers as a 4.5-point favorite at Cleveland tonight. I’ll gladly side with the value and the home underdog Cavaliers in this one.
Cleveland has really started to play well over the past week. It has won two of its last three with a road win at Portland and a home victory over Boston. Its lone loss during this stretch came at Utah by 11, which is a tough place to play.
Milwaukee comes in overvalued due to its 3-game winning streak that has come against the likes of the struggling Suns, Blazers and 76ers. In fact, the Bucks have only beaten one team currently with a winning record in January, so they have really benefited from an easy schedule.
The Cavaliers have outperformed the Bucks in two meetings this season. They lost at home to Milwaukee 86-90 as a 3-point dog in their first meeting on December 14th, but would get their revenge with a 94-82 road win on December 22nd as an 8-point dog.
This play falls into a system that is 59-29 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) – hot team – having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
Milwaukee is 46-74 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996. The Bucks are 6-17 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Bet Cleveland Friday.