Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Indians -120 betting line (August 17th 2014)
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The Cleveland Indians should be a much bigger favorite at home today against the Baltimore Orioles. The Indians are only 4.5 games out of the final wild card spot in the American League, so they have a lot to play for right now.
Danny Salazar is one of the most talented young starters in the game today. He has struggled this year at 4-5 with a 4.88 ERA, but he has 69 K’s in 62 2/3 innings and will be a key cog in Cleveland’s rotation going forward.
Kevin Gausman is having a solid season for Baltimore, going 6-4 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.418 WHIP in 12 starts. He is being overvalued here as a result, and he has struggled of late, going 2-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in his last three starts.
Cleveland is 83-45 (+22.7 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Indians are 5-1 in their last six games overall. The Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Cleveland is 5-1 in Salazer’s last six starts as home favorite. Bet the Indians Sunday.
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Cleveland Indians vs. Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Cincinnati +104 betting line (August 6th 2014)
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Cincinnati won four of six games on its roadtrip including a split in Cleveland to move back to over .500 and sit five games behind Milwaukee in the National League Central. Now the venue switches and the Reds are home for two games where they are four games over .500 on the season and going back, they are 12-2 in their last 14 Interleague home games against teams with a winning record. Cleveland is trying to keep pace in the American League Wild Card race as it sits just two games behind Toronto for the second and final spot. The fact the Indians are actually favored here in some shops is a big surprise as they are a horrific 23-34 on the highway and putting the home/road splits together, the host is 68-45 in their games this season. The Indians are 16-35 in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning home record. Danny Salazar gets the ball for Cleveland and while he has been pitching good, putting him in the favorite role is overly aggressive. The Indians are 3-0 in his three starts since his return and his Era is 2.00 over that stretch but he has also been fortunate to get 10 rpg ion those games and having a big lead is a lot more comfortable on the pitcher. The Indians are 1-4 in Salazar’s last five starts against teams with a winning record. The Reds counter with Mat Latos who has been very solid since returning from an injury that forced him to miss the first two and a half months of the season. He has a 3.07 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in nine starts with six of those being quality outings. He hasn’t been as good at home but that can be attributed to one bad start against Toronto. Here we play on home teams that are hitting .255 or worse and with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games going up against an AL starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.70). This situation is 33-14 (70.2 percent) since 1997. Play (924) Cincinnati Reds
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Indians
Betting Pick: Cleveland -155 odds (August 2nd 2014)
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I’m playing on CLEVELAND. The Indians aren’t a team that will have much attention from bettors on a regular basis, but I do believe this weekend is a time you’ll want to be on them. This is because they’re playing at home and the opponent is the Texas Rangers. Things have already gotten off to a good start if you’re a Tribe backer or fan as Friday saw them beat up on the visitors 12-2. I expect something similar to play out Saturday night at Progressive Field.
Cleveland has now won 9 of its last 10 against Texas. In a down year for the Rangers, you’d expect that dominance to continue. Sure enough after dropping the first meeting of 2014, the Indians have beaten them four straight times, scoring a total of 29 runs in the past two. The offense has registered double digit hits in all four wins.
The Rangers rotation has been damaged by injuries, so what you’re left with is having to send out the likes of Miles Mikolas. After just five career starts, Mikolas has an 8.55 ERA, 1.671 WHIP and opponents are batting .315 against him. Considering how Cleveland hitters have been feasting on Texas pitching all year, you have to like their chances against Mikolas.
Texas has also lost 17 of its last 20 road games. Cleveland is a classic .500 (ish) team that has a great home record and plays poorly on the road. At Progressive Field this year, the Indians are 31-21. Among American League teams, only Oakland and the Angels have won more at home this year. The second game of a series has not been kind to Texas, who has dropped 21 of their last 26 in that situation. Cleveland has won 8 of 10. 1* free play.