Cleveland Indians vs. Toronto Blue Jays
MLB Playoffs Betting Pick: Blue Jays -183 odds (October 17th 2016)
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The free play for monday is on Toronto at 8:05 eastern. On Monday night Cleveland takes to Toronto for Game 3 of the A.L.C.S. The Indians held serve and took the first 2 games at home, despite getting installed as underdogs in this series. Cleveland took a pair of close games with a total of 5 runs scored for both teams. The Indians have now won 8 straight games and put the odds in their favor. Game 3 road teams are just 3-12 historical, as seen by the grid below. However, they have won 12 of 15 times good for 80%. Toronto will look to take one back here tonight. When trailing a best of seven playoff series 2-0 the Toronto Blue Jays have a series record of 0-2 but a Game 3 record of 2-0. The Jays send M. Stroman to the mound and he has been solid in a pair of starts vs the Indians going 14 innings allowing just 2 runs. He has been hot of late with a 2.70 Era in his last 3 starts. Cleveland counters with T. Bauer who was pushed back for this game with a blister on his hand. Bauer has a paltry 4.91 era in his last 3 starts and was knocked out of the box in his lone start here in Toronto allowing 5 runs in less than 2 innings of work.
Toronto averages 5 runs per game here at home and will be aided by a raucous crowd. Toronto is 4-0 as a home favorite this year off a road game loss where they scored 2 or less runs. Look for Toronto to take Game 3.
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Cleveland Indians vs. Boston Red Sox
MLB Betting Pick: Boston -141 odds (October 10th 2016)
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The Cleveland Indians have opened a 2-0 lead on the Boston Red Sox, winning 5-4 in Game 1 (Indians hit three Solo HRs off Porcello in the third inning!) and then 6-0 in Game 2, as Corey Kluber came up big with seven scoreless innings, while David Price’s postseason woes continued (five ERs allowed over 3.1 innings). There have been 28 teams which have rallied from 0-2 to win an LDS, including two Boston teams. The Red Sox did it to the Indians in 1999 and to the Oakland A’s in 2003. Cleveland manager Terry Francona knows his team is up 2-0 in this best-of-five series but cautioned, “The atmosphere is going to be a little different come Sunday.”
The Game 3 starters are Josh Tomlin (13-9, 4.40 ERA) for Cleveland and Clay Buchholz (8-10, 4.78 ERA) for Boston. Both of these pitchers were banished to the bullpen during the regular season because of poor performances but both have pitched better recently. Tomlin posted a 1.75 ERA in his final four appearances during the regular season, after briefly being demoted to the bullpen in early September. Truth be told, Tomlin is likely making this postseason start primarily because injuries have sidelined both Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar. Buchholz made three appearances out of the bullpen in late August but then the team won four of his five September starts, including him posting a 1.42 ERA in hid final three starts.
The Red Sox led all of MLB in runs scored (5.42 RPG), BA (.282) and OPS (.810) during the regular season but stars Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, David Ortiz, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. have gone a combined 4-for-36 (.011) in the first two games. David Ortiz told reporters, “We’re getting our (butts) beat. Nothing to celebrate. It’s part of the game, man, but I know we’re better than that.” The Red Sox are better than they’ve played and here at Fenway, they’ve averaged 5.89 RPG. Can Boston win three in a row? Well, that’s not the question here. Boston can and WILL win Game 3.
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians
MLB Runline Pick: Indians -1.5 -108 odds (August 30th 2016)
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The Cleveland Indians look to pad their lead in the American League Central Division when they host the Minnesota Twins. Game time is slated for 7:10 PM ET at Progressive Field where the Tribe is a huge -206 moneyline favorite with a -1.5 runline price of -108. The total is 9.5. Minnesota will be out to snap an 11-game losing streak, including Monday’s 1-0 setback in the series opener.
The Twins (49-82, 24-42 road) have the worst record in the American League and the second poorest mark in the majors. But Minnesota has eight wins against Cleveland Indians and a total of seven vs. KC, Detroit and Chicago. Go figure.
The Indians (74-56, 40-23 home) have the second best record in the American League, but they are coming off a humbling seven-game trip to Oakland and Texas in which they lost five of the seven games. The offense is the issue for Cleveland which has been held to one or no runs in seven of their last eight games.
Andrew Alburs (0-0, 4.32 ERA) will be making his third appearance, but first start for the Twins this season.
Josh Tomlin’s (11-8, 4.70 ERA) status in the rotation could be riding on tonight’s performance. In his last five starts, Tomlin is 0-5 with a 10.80 ERA and nine home runs in 25 innings. He leads the majors with 34 homers allowed.In 13 career appearances against the Twins, Tomlin is 4-4 with a 5.26 ERA. In three starts versus Minnesota this year, Tomlin is 2-0 with a 3.72 ERA.
Cleveland Indians vs. Oakland Athletics
Betting Pick: A’s +128 odds (August 24th 2016)
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10* graded play on Oakland as they take on Cleveland in AL action set to start at 3:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game.
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 68-35 over the last 5 seasons good for 66% winners and made 36.8 units/unit wagered. Play on any team (OAKLAND) – with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (AL), after a win by 8 runs or more. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is 16-8 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons and they are 13-5 (+9.9 Units) against the money line after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games this season. Cleveland is 15-20 (-9.2 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB’s/start) this season and they are 19-26 (-14.8 Units) against the money line after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season. Melvin is 76-57 (+18.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season as the manager of Oakland. Francona is 9-29 (-19.4 Units) against the money line in road games revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 8 runs or more in all games he has managed since 1997. Indians are 3-7 in their last 10 road games. Indians are 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Indians are 1-5 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Indians are 0-4 in their last 4 Wednesday games. Athletics are 5-1 in Graveman’s last 6 home starts. Athletics are 4-1 in Graveman’s last 5 starts during game 3 of a series. Athletics are 10-3 in Graveman’s last 13 starts.
Fundamental Discussion Points Khris Davis went 2-for-4 with a three-run homer and Ryon Healy collected three hits and an RBI as Oakland rolled to its second win in 10 contests. Healy is 5-for-7 in the series and is riding a 10-game hitting streak during which he has recorded five multi-hit performances. Bauer made his second career start against Oakland on July 29 but remained without a decision after yielding three runs — two earned — and five hits over 5 1/3 frames. Graveman is coming off his first career shutout and second complete game of the season, a two-hitter against the White Sox at Chicago in which he struck out five without issuing a walk. He has been stingy with the free passes of late, walking a total of six batters in 56 1/3 innings over his last eight outings. Take Oakland Athletics.