Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians
Game 1 MLB Pick: Twins +165 odds (September 30th 2015)
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The Minnesota Twins still have a lot to play for and should not be underdogs in this game as a result. They are just 1.5 games back of the final wild card spot, while the Indians are 5 games back with nothing to play for. The Twins have won three straight and six of eight coming in, while the Indians have lost back-to-back games and won’t be motivated the rest of the way.
Kyle Gibson has pitched pretty well this season with a 10-11 record and a 4.01 ERA to go along with a 1.298 WHIP in 31 starts. He’ll be motivated from a lost to the Indians last time out back when the Indians still had a fighting chance in the wild card.
Carlos Carrasco is a solid starter in this league at 14-11 with a 3.44 ERA this season, but he’s being way overvalued here, especially given the motivational angle. Plus, Carrasco has been at his worst at home, going 5-7 with a 4.65 ERA in 14 starts.
The Twins are 7-0 in Gibson’s last seven starts vs. a team with a losing record. Minnesota is 4-1 in its last five road games. Cleveland is 2-10 (-11.6 Units) against the money line in home games after scoring 3 runs or less two straight games this season. Don’t expect much resistance from the Indians today, either. Bet the Twins in Game 1 Wednesday.
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