Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago Cubs
World Series Game 6 Betting Pick: Indians +145 odds (November 1st 2016)
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The Cubs staved off elimination with a 3-2 victory in Game 5 as Aroldis Chapman recorded an eight out save. Jon Lester picked up the win while Kris Bryant slugged his first home run of the series. However the Indians still own a 3-2 lead and have two chances—at home—to wrap up their first title since 1948.
Game 6 features an intriguing pitching matchup with Jake Arrieta (1-1, 3.78 ERA) vs. Tomlin (2-0, 1.76) Arrieta took a no-hitter into the sixth inning in Game 2 at Cleveland and ended up with the win, his first of the postseason. Surprisingly though, Tomlin has had the better postseason of the two.He allowed two hits in 4 2/3 scoreless innings in Game but didn’t figure in the decision. Tomlin has surrendered two or fewer runs in each of his last eight appearances going back to the regular season. Tomlin is going on three days’ rest but only threw 58 pitches in Game 3.
Cleveland is 11-1 to the UNDER in its last 12 playoff games and 8-1-2 to the UNDER in its last 11 home postseason games.
THE UNDER IS 4-1 in the first five games of the series and is 8-2 to the low side in the last in the last 10 meetings.
Mostly clear skies and temps in the upper 50’s are on tap for Cleveland tonight.
Bottom line on Game 6: The starters will get the job done, the bullpens will be lights out and a clutch hit will decide it. Let’s plan on a low- scoring game and WS title for the Tribe.
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Indians
World Series Game 2 Over-Under Pick: Over 7 runs -110 odds (October 26th 2016)
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We won with the ‘under’ in the opener of the World Series last night, but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘over’ on Wednesday.
The Cubs certainly don’t want to dig themselves an 0-2 hole before returning home and they’ll ask Jake Arrieta to lift them to victory in Game 2. He’s obviously one of the game’s premier pitchers but let’s face it, he’s been nothing more than average since August. That’s not to say he can’t step up with a big game performance on Wednesday, but I’m confident the Indians will be able to manufacture a few runs off of him – just as they have against other elite level pitchers in these playoffs.
Trevor Bauer returns to the hill for the Indians after being forced to exit early with that injured finger in his lone start in the ALCS. By all accounts he’s healed up and ready to go. The Cubs offense was a no-show last night, but I’m expecting a better performance in Game 2. Prior to that brief ALCS appearance, Bauer had been tagged for 10 earned runs over 18 1/3 innings in his previous three starts.
We’re dealing with a higher number than we saw last night, but I believe it will prove too low. Both offenses are opportunistic in nature and I’m confident they’ll bring the right approach to the plate against the two starters on Wednesday. Take the over (10*).
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Cleveland Indians vs. Toronto Blue Jays
MLB Playoffs Betting Pick: Blue Jays -183 odds (October 17th 2016)
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The free play for monday is on Toronto at 8:05 eastern. On Monday night Cleveland takes to Toronto for Game 3 of the A.L.C.S. The Indians held serve and took the first 2 games at home, despite getting installed as underdogs in this series. Cleveland took a pair of close games with a total of 5 runs scored for both teams. The Indians have now won 8 straight games and put the odds in their favor. Game 3 road teams are just 3-12 historical, as seen by the grid below. However, they have won 12 of 15 times good for 80%. Toronto will look to take one back here tonight. When trailing a best of seven playoff series 2-0 the Toronto Blue Jays have a series record of 0-2 but a Game 3 record of 2-0. The Jays send M. Stroman to the mound and he has been solid in a pair of starts vs the Indians going 14 innings allowing just 2 runs. He has been hot of late with a 2.70 Era in his last 3 starts. Cleveland counters with T. Bauer who was pushed back for this game with a blister on his hand. Bauer has a paltry 4.91 era in his last 3 starts and was knocked out of the box in his lone start here in Toronto allowing 5 runs in less than 2 innings of work.
Toronto averages 5 runs per game here at home and will be aided by a raucous crowd. Toronto is 4-0 as a home favorite this year off a road game loss where they scored 2 or less runs. Look for Toronto to take Game 3.
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Cleveland Indians vs. Boston Red Sox
MLB Betting Pick: Boston -141 odds (October 10th 2016)
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The Cleveland Indians have opened a 2-0 lead on the Boston Red Sox, winning 5-4 in Game 1 (Indians hit three Solo HRs off Porcello in the third inning!) and then 6-0 in Game 2, as Corey Kluber came up big with seven scoreless innings, while David Price’s postseason woes continued (five ERs allowed over 3.1 innings). There have been 28 teams which have rallied from 0-2 to win an LDS, including two Boston teams. The Red Sox did it to the Indians in 1999 and to the Oakland A’s in 2003. Cleveland manager Terry Francona knows his team is up 2-0 in this best-of-five series but cautioned, “The atmosphere is going to be a little different come Sunday.”
The Game 3 starters are Josh Tomlin (13-9, 4.40 ERA) for Cleveland and Clay Buchholz (8-10, 4.78 ERA) for Boston. Both of these pitchers were banished to the bullpen during the regular season because of poor performances but both have pitched better recently. Tomlin posted a 1.75 ERA in his final four appearances during the regular season, after briefly being demoted to the bullpen in early September. Truth be told, Tomlin is likely making this postseason start primarily because injuries have sidelined both Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar. Buchholz made three appearances out of the bullpen in late August but then the team won four of his five September starts, including him posting a 1.42 ERA in hid final three starts.
The Red Sox led all of MLB in runs scored (5.42 RPG), BA (.282) and OPS (.810) during the regular season but stars Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, David Ortiz, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. have gone a combined 4-for-36 (.011) in the first two games. David Ortiz told reporters, “We’re getting our (butts) beat. Nothing to celebrate. It’s part of the game, man, but I know we’re better than that.” The Red Sox are better than they’ve played and here at Fenway, they’ve averaged 5.89 RPG. Can Boston win three in a row? Well, that’s not the question here. Boston can and WILL win Game 3.