Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks
NBA Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 (March 17th 2013)
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Dallas is playing its best basketball of the season. The Mavericks have won five of their last six with their lone defeat during this span coming by one point on the road to San Antonio this past Thursday.

That’s all well and good, but the Mavericks still remain a long shot to make the playoffs. They are a below .500 team with a mediocre 18-12 home record. Only Minnesota, Sacramento, Phoenix and New Orleans have worst home marks in the Western Conference.

Oklahoma City has covered seven of the last eight times when facing a below .500 foe. The Thunder’s only non-cover during this span was in their last game this past Friday when they rolled past Orlando, 117-104, as a 17-point favorite. The Thunder led by 27, but let up.

Dallas is playing for the third time in four days. The Mavericks are one of the oldest teams in the NBA. Nearly all of their veterans are well past their prime. Shawn Marion is expected to miss the game, too, due to a calf injury that has sidelined him for the past five games. Marion is Dallas’ top rebounder and best defender. Without Marion, Kevin Durant is in line for another monster game.

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Oklahoma City won’t be taking this game lightly as the Thunder are in a dogfight with San Antonio for the top seed in the West. The Thunder trail the Tony Parker-less Spurs by 1 1/2 games. The Thunder own the fifth-best road record in the NBA. They have covered 69 percent of their last 55 overall Western Conference matchups.

The Mavericks have not matched up well to the Thunder. Oklahoma City has won nine in a row against the Mavericks, including the past four in Dallas. The Thunder is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 visits to Dallas.

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
NBA Prediction: Memphis -7.5 -110 odds (February 27th 2013)
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Memphis is very quietly heating up, and they have now won seven straight. They were slumping from the middle of January to the middle of this month (for Memphis standards), but they have seemed to turn things around. And you have to remember this team was one of the best ATS bets to start the season, and they are currently ranked No. 3 in the NBA ATS rankings. This team got to that point by winning and covering games like this. Dallas is coming in on a back-to-back after losing to a struggling Milwaukee team at home last night. Dallas looked really bad in that game, and we just don’t see how they will follow up that performance with a break-out game in a back-to-back against a much better team. Memphis has the defense to shut down the Mavs offense, which is their only real strong point. Also, the Grizzlies have shown the ability to score on bad defenses like this one, and we think they will be able to get enough points to cover this line. One of the crucial aspects of NBA handicapping is to try and jump on streaks early, and we think the Mavs are going to struggle in the next couple weeks. They really looked flat last night in one of their last home games for awhile, and now they face three playoff teams on the road followed by a lone home meeting with Houston, and after that they play four more on the road. Dallas is a team to bet against right now, and it starts here Wednesday night.

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Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks
NBA Pick: Dallas Mavericks -7.5 (January 27th 2013)
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Phoenix is in a tough scheduling spot for this game tonight. The Suns will be playing their fourth game in five nights while playing on a back-to-back road set. Phoenix will have 2 full days off after this game so they will be looking ahead to that time off. The Suns played a terrific game in San Antonio last night as they shot 50.6% (41-81) from the field and 50% (6-12) from three-point land. Despite that, Phoenix still lost that game by 9 points (108-99) and since they have to wheel right back and play tonight on tired legs, we do not expect a repeat of that performance. Check out Steve Merril’s premium NBA picks for January 27th 2013 today at Touthouse.com

Dallas comes into tonight’s game off a 113-107 home loss to San Antonio on Friday night. The final score was misleading as the Mavericks were thoroughly out-played in that game and they trailed by 20 points late in the fourth quarter. Off that bad performance, we expect Dallas to bounce back with a strong effort tonight. Prior to that loss, the Mavericks had won five of their previous six games with their lone loss coming in overtime by just 3 points to Oklahoma City. The Mavericks have also covered the pointspread in 6 of their last 7 games which shows they are undervalued in the betting market. Dallas will be playing just their second game over the last 7 days, and since they are catching Phoenix at the perfect time, we’ll back the home team in this game on Sunday night.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Sacramento Kings
Betting Prediction: Dallas Mavericks +2 -110 odds (January 10th 2013)
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Even though the Mavericks are playing the second game of a back-to-back set and their third contest in four nights, I believe they are being extremely undervalued tonight.

Dallas has lost four straight and 10 of 11 overall, but if you look close enough you can see that they are playing much better now that Dirk Nowitzki is getting back into the swing of things. A lot of people overlook the fact that the schedule has been absolutely brutal. Over their last four games they have taken the Heat to overtime, lost by just six at Utah and last night had a lead going into the 4th quarter at Los Angeles (Clippers).

All Sacramento has done in their last two games is lose at Brooklyn by 20 points and at home to Memphis by 32. I’m having a hard time figuring out why they are favored in this one. Dallas is definitely worth a small bet tonight! BET THE MAVERICKS!

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