NBA Picks: March 18th 2013
Brooklyn Nets vs. Detroit Pistons
Prediction: Detroit Pistons +4.5
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You should always play on home underdogs like Detroit when they are playing a double revenge game against an opponent off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite. This system is 64-30 (68.1%) in favor of that home underdog. This trend is particularly important because the Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a double digit loss at home.
The Pistons are averaging 96.3 points per game at home while the Nets are scoring a mere 93 points on the road. Brooklyn is not a team that forces a lot of turnovers averaging just 13 per game while committing 14 of their own. The Nets defense has been horrible lately allowing over 51% shooting in their last three games. The Pistons may not have a great overall record, but they are playing on their home court and if the Nets allow over 50% shooting in this game the Pistons will pick up a home win.
Detroit Pistons vs. Utah Jazz
NBA Pick: Utah Jazz -9.5 -110 odds (March 11th 2013)
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The Jazz have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA. They are 22-8 straight up at home and are facing a Detroit team that is really struggling right now having lost 8 of their last 9 games. Detroit has been horrible on the road with an 8-23 record allowing 101.2 points per game.
The Detroit Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning home record. They are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against Western Conference opponents. Utah is coming off a bad loss to New York and they are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a loss by 10 or more points.
The Pistons have a long history of under-performing against Utah. They are 3-13 ATS in the last 17 head to head meetings between these teams. Utah finally received a day of rest after a four game road stretch and now it is Detroit who will be going through that same kind of agonizing run. The Pistons are playing in a back to back game after getting crushed by the Clippers last night. The well-rested home team is the smart play in this matchup.
Detroit Pistons vs. New Orleans Hornets
NBA Pick: New Orleans -3.5 (March 1st 2013)
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This is a very generous line in getting the New Orleans Hornets as only a 3.5-point home favorite over the Detroit Pistons Friday night. The Hornets are one of the most underrated teams in the league as they have been much more competitive since getting Eric Gordon back from injury. However, their 20-39 record on the season has them consistently undervalued.
New Orleans is going to come into this game highly motivated for a victory after getting embarrassed at Oklahoma City 74-119 on Wednesday. I like its chances of bouncing back considering Detroit is just 8-20 on the road this season where it is getting outscored by 7.0 points/game.
The Pistons have been simply atrocious since trading away Tayshaun Prince, and with a key injury to top reserve Andre Drummond. They have lost three of their last four games in blowout fashion by 11 to Atlanta, 18 to Indiana, and 32 to Indiana. Their lone win during this stretch came by a single point over the lowly Washington Wizards.
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New Orleans thumped Detroit 105-86 on the road on February 11th in their first meeting of the season. The Pistons are just 8-17 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season. The Hornets are 15-4 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Bet New Orleans Friday.
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NBA Picks: February 11th 2013
Detroit Pistons vs. New Orleans Hornets
Pick: Detroit Pistons -5
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The Detroit Pistons are playing arguably their best basketball of the season right now. They are coming off back-to-back wins over playoff contenders. They beat San Antonio 109-99 at home as a 5-point dog on Friday before going on the road and knocking off Milwaukee 105-100 as a 7.5-point dog Saturday.
Now, I look for the Pistons to make easy work of the New Orleans Hornets tonight. New Orleans is coming off an 89-102 loss at Toronto Sunday, and this is a tired team. The Hornets will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.
New Orleans is just 9-19 on the road this season, while Detroit is a very respectable 14-13 at home. Making matters worse for the Hornets is the fact that they are expected to be without second-leading scorer Eric Gordon (16.4 PPG), who is listed as doubtful with a knee injury.
The home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between Detroit and New Orleans. Detroit is 13-3 ATS in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams – attempting <=21 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons. The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Hornets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest. Bet the Pistons Monday.
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