Arkansas vs. Florida
College Basketball Betting Pick: Florida -18.5
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10* graded play on the Florida Gators as they take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in SEC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Gators will win this game by 20 or more points. As many of you know, my career, and my methods generally focus on dogs that not only can cover, but also post the upset win. Many of my 25* releases are single digit dogs that offer the opportunity to form combination bets taking advantage of the money line. However, this 10* graded play is a very large favorite, but is more than warranted to expect Florida to dismantle an uninterested Razorback team. Florida, in my opinion, is the best defensive team in the nation by a significant margin. They rank third allowing just 53.0 PPG. In case your wondering, Stephen F Austin ranks best allowing 50.9 PPG and Western Illinois second best allowing 52.95 PPG. These two teams hardly face the SOS that Florida has faced in the SEC this season. Another stat that has significant meaning when handicapping teams is what I have called effective FG%. This takes in consideration all aspects of the game including an opponents SOS, comparisons between 2 and 3-point defensive percentages and a bunch more situations. Florida ranks fifth best in that category allowing opponents an EFG% of 42.4%. By comparison Arkansas ranks 213th allowing 68.3 PPG and 155th posting an EFG% of 48.0. Making things even worse for the Razorbacks is the fact that Florida happens to be the 32nd best offensive team in the nation averaging 73.8 PPG and second best with a EFG% of 57% shooting. Arkansas ranks 20th averaging a solid 75.5 PPG, but they rely on a fast paced style of game. This is evident by their 125th ranking with a 49.4% EFG quotient. Arkansas will hardly be able to generate enough pace in this game to get their offense rolling against the Gators. Plus, every missed shot that is attempted early in the possession is only going to add to the Gators tally on the scoreboard. SIM shows a high probability that Florida will score more than 81 points. In past games, Florida is a rock solid money making 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when they score 81 or more points in a game over the last 3 seasons.
South Carolina vs. Florida
College Basketball Pick: South Carolina +23 (January 20th 2013)
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There’s no question that the Florida Gators are one of the best teams in the country. However, I believe this team is way overvalued as a 23-point home favorite over the South Carolina Gamecocks tonight. I’ll pull the trigger on the road dog because of it.
Florida has incredibly covered in seven straight games despite being a double-digit favorite every time. However, with this run comes expectations from the betting public and thus the oddsmakers that the Gators simply cannot live up to. Also, they were never more than a 20-point favorite during this run.
South Carolina is ever-improving under former Kansas State head coach Frank Martin. It has covered in three of its last four with an 82-73 win at LSU as a 10-point dog, a 65-71 loss at Missouri as a 14-point dog, and a 75-54 home win over Arkansas last time out as a 4-point dog. The Gamecocks are one of the most underrated teams in the country as they are playing their best basketball of the season right now.
The Gamecocks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. South Carolina is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The road team is 17-5-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings. The Gamecocks are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Florida. Bet South Carolina Wednesday.
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2013 Allstate Sugar Bowl
When: Wednesday, January 2nd, 2013
Where: Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Who: Florida Gators vs. Louisville Cardinals
Time: 8:00 PM ET
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Sugar Bowl Betting Odds: Florida Gators -14 Over-Uner 46
The Florida Gators (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) and Louisville Cardinals (10-2 SU, 5-7 ATS) will look to finish off their fine 2012 seasons with a huge postseason victory when they square off in the 2013 AllState Sugar Bowl on January 2 at 8:30 PM ET. The two elite pigskin programs will battle live from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.
Florida closed out the regular season with four straight wins, though college football bettors should know the Gators posted a disturbing 1-4 ATS mark over their final five games. Florida averages 26.8 points per game while holding their opponents to a paltry 12.9 points per contest defensively.
Louisville won its regular season finale to end its discouraging, late-season two-game losing streak. The Cardinals didn’t fare too well against the spread down the stretch; going just 2-2 ATS over their last four games and a dismal 2-4 ATS over their last half-dozen games overall. The Cardinals average a stellar 31.0 points per game while allowing 23.8 per contest defensively.
Louisville Cardinals vs. Florida Gators
Bowl Game Pick: Florida -14 (January 2nd 2013)
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The Gators are one of the best defensive teams in the nation and will be a big step up in class from anyone that Louisville has faced all season. The Cardinals might have two losses, but they came in the last three games and includes an L as a double digit favorite v. UConn and by 19 points in a pick em situation v. Syracuse.
Florida on the other hand has one loss on the year and that was to a Georgia team that could easily be playing for a national championship right now. They only allowed one opponent all year to score more than 20 points and that was Florida State, another premiere team.
Louisville has a pretty good pass defense, but Florida is a running team who averages 4.6 yards per rush against some quality defenses. Louisville on the other hand likes to throw the ball, but is going to have a tough time moving the ball through the air against a Gator defense that allowed just one out of their last six opponents to throw for more than 195 yards.
***VEGAS INSIDER goes tonight on the Florida/Louisville total!***