Clemson Tigers vs. Florida State Seminoles
College Basketball Pick: Florida State -7 (February 5th 2017)
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The Florida State Seminoles have enjoyed a tremendous home-court advantage this season. They take a lot of pride in the fact that they are 14-0 at home this season. Not only are they winning, they are dominating, outscoring opponents by nearly 19 points per game on average. They have been basically unstoppable offensively at home with an average of 90.1 points per game on 50.6% shooting. Once the schedule has gotten tougher, Clemson has not played well. The Tigers are 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS in ACC play this season with their three wins coming against below-average teams in Wake Forest, Pitt and Georgia Tech. The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Seminoles are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. teams that average 21 or more 3-point attempts per game. Take Florida State.
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Michigan Wolverines vs. Florida State Seminoles – 8:00pm ET December 30th 2016
Point Spread: The Michigan Wolverines are a 7 point favorite over the Florida State Seminoles in the 2016 Capital One Orange Bowl. The over/under for this game is 51 points. (Note: total opened at 56.5)
Public Perception: 51% of the betting public are wagering on the Wolverines to cover the point spread against the Seminoles. 51% also believe that this game will go over the posted total of 51 points.
Recent Performance: Michigan ended on a 8-2 winning streak for this season, losing their last game of the season in overtime to Ohio State by a score of 27-30. Florida State won their last 4 games of the year decisively with wins over Florida (31-13), Syracuse (45-14), BC (45-7) and NC State 24-20. The last time these two team played was all the way back in 1991. FSU was a 2.5 point underdog and beat MICH by a score of 51-31. The total for that game was 47 points.
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Side Betting Trends: Florida State is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win. Florida State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Florida State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Florida State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Michigan is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Michigan is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
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Over/Under Betting Trends: Over is 4-0 in Wolverines last 4 non-conference games. Over is 4-0 in Wolverines last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Over is 11-2 in Wolverines last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 8-2 in Wolverines last 10 neutral site games.
Head-to-Head Betting Trends: None Available
Betting Pick: Florida State +7
Over-Under Pick: Over 51 points
Florida Gators vs. Florida State Seminoles
Basketball Pick: Florida State -3 (December 11th 2016)
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The Gators bring the higher ranking into this afternoon’s game. However, I feel that the Seminoles are favored for good reason. While the Gators are always tough, this year’s Seminoles have both depth and talent.
Florida coach Mike White said this of the Noles: “Defensively, they’re the longest, fastest, quickest, most athletic defense I think arguably that we’ll play this year. Second-biggest team, I think, numbers-wise in college basketball. They can throw 7-footers at you, 6-foot-10 long fours (power forwards) that can switch on the guards. They’re really playing hard. They’re pressuring even more than a year ago, pressing even more.”
The Noles are perfect on their home floor, outscoring teams by a 96.9 to 68.7 margin here. The Noles have hit better than 54% of their shots here; visiting teams have connected on only 37% of theirs. They’ve scored 98 or more points five times already this season.
While Florida is already 0-2 ATS as an underdog this season, Florida State is 6-2 ATS as a favorite. Admittedly, recent meetings in this series have been extremely close, the underdog “getting the cash.” That said, this pointspread is smaller than it was for those games. With the Gators off a (potentially draining) 10-point loss to Duke, I feel that the surging Seminoles have an excellent shot at covering the small number. Consider laying the points.