College Basketball Predictions: March 1st 2012
Florida State vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Prediction: Virginia Cavaliers -3.5
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The Virginia Cavaliers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. I’ll gladly back them at home on Senior Night Thursday as they take care of the Florida State Seminoles by 4-plus points. This is going to be one highly motivated team in their home finale.

Virginia has quietly gone 21-7 this season to likely earn themselves a spot in the NCAA Tournament. The Cavaliers have been extremely tough at home, going 13-2 while outscoring opponents by 16.7 points/game. The reason this team can be trusted is their ability to play defense as well as anyone in the country. The Cavaliers give up 52.2 points/game overall, including 48.6 at home.

Florida State is a big over-hyped due to their wins over Duke and North Carolina this season. They come into this game having lost two straight, including an embarrassing 62-78 road loss at Miami last time out. FSU did beat Virginia 58-55 at home in their first meeting, but I believe the Cavaliers will have their revenge at home this time around. The Seminoles are just 5-7 in road games this season.

Virginia is 8-1 ATS versus good shooting teams – making >=45% of their shots this season. The Cavaliers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Virginia is 29-14-1 ATS in their last 44 games overall. The Cavaliers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss. The Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Bet Virginia Thursday.

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Florida State vs. Miami
Prediction: Florida State +1.5 -110 odds (February 26th 2012)
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Motivated by Thursday’s loss at Duke, expect Florida State to bounce back strong against a Miami team it has defeated 6 straight times by an average of 5.5 points.

The Seminoles have been one of the premier defensive teams in the country in recent years, and strong defensive efforts have led to their winning streak against the Hurricanes. The Noles rank 3rd in the nation in field goal percentage defense (37.2%) and 40th in scoring defense (61.3 ppg). They have held Miami to an average of 60.5 points on 38.7% shooting during their winning streak in the series.

Miami ranks 108th in field goal percentage defense (41.7%) and 177th in scoring defense (66.9 ppg). Expect FSU’s “D” to once again be the difference Sunday.

The Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Hurricanes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less.

The underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the road team is 10-3-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Also, the Seminoles are 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Miami-Florida. Take FSU.

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Duke vs. Florida State
Prediction: Florida State +2 -110 odds (February 23rd 2012)
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The Florida State Seminoles have been underrated all season. They continue to get no respect tonight from oddsmakers as they are an underdog to the Duke Blue Devils. This line just shows how the betting public believes Florida State’s win at Duke earlier this season was a fluke.

I see it much differently and strongly believe that the Seminoles are going to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. FSU is 19-7 on the season, including 14-1 at home where they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.1 points/game.

The Seminoles know how to defend, which gives them a chance to beat any team in the country. FSU is only yielding 60.8 points on 37.0 percent shooting. One of their 14 home wins came against North Carolina. The Seminoles handed the Tar Heels their worst loss of the season, a 90-57 beat down on 1/14.

Florida State is 6-0 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. They are winning by 21.0 points/game in this situation. The Seminoles are 22-4-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5. FSU is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings with Duke. Bet Florida State Thursday.

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Florida State vs. Notre Dame
Prediction: Florida State -3.5 (December 29th 2011)
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My money is on the Seminoles to take down the Fighting Irish by at least 4-poitns in today’s Champ Sports Bowl. Both of these teams finished the regular season with a disappointing 8-4 record, but Florida State struggles were more of a result of injuries than the talent they sent out on the field.

Notre Dame had an impressive 31-13 win over Michigan State, but also lost to Michigan, USC, and Stanford. The losses against the Trojans and Cardinal were both by 14-points. Their win over the Spartans is a bit misleading, as they only had 265 yards of total offense.

I believe the difference in this game will be the Florida State defense, which comes in ranked 4th in the country, allowing just 15.2 ppg. The Seminoles are very strong against both the run and the pass. They allowed just 81.8 ypg (2nd) on the ground and only 192.8 ypg through the air.

Notre Dame has made some solid progress under head coach Chip Kelly, but this is a very inconsistent team that has struggled to put up points against the top defenses they have faced. The Fighting Irish managed just 17-points in a 17-31 loss at home to USC and only 14-points in a 14-28 loss at Stanford.

Florida State 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0, and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games. BET THE SEMINOLES -3.5! If you enjoyed this Florida State vs. Notre Dame prediction from Steve Janus, be sure to check back ofter at Touthouse.com for more bowl picks.