NFL Playoffs Pick: January 12th 2013
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: San Francisco -2.5 -110 point spread
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Ryan has posted a 24-13 ATS mark for 65% winners w/his 25* Titan editions + is 7-2 ATS w/his 15* Titans that are always released as 3-packs Wed. + Sat. His research combined w/his simulator projections has uncovered this Monster 30* play. He has hit 30* winners w/Ravens + ‘Bama in the past week alone.
Of the four games slated for the divisional playoff round of the NFl, there was one line that caught my attention. The 49ers are favored by just 3 points and with a week off to rest and prepare, I find this a very skinny line. Green Bay appeared to be back in top form in their win over Minnesota, but the Vikings were playing with a backup QB and several key injuries. GB does rank fourth in the NFl averaging 26.9 PPG. I do feel strongly that the 49ers defense that ranks second in the NFL allowing 17.1 PPG will dominate the LOS and make it very difficult for the Packers to execute multiple play time consuming scoring drives. Moreover, the 49ers ground game is very strong ranking third best averaging 5.1 YPR. GB ranks 28th allowing 4.6 yards per rush. My simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will gain 125+ rushing yards and in past games where they have eclipsed this measure they are 5-2 ATS this season and 12-4 ATS the past three seasons. With the week off, the 49ers defensive front will be at full strength and this is a unit that allowed just 45 rushing yards to the Packers when these two teams met in Week 1. GB has had RB Harris evolve as a pleasant surprise. He runs with determination and protects the ball well when in traffic. Still, the 49ers will force Rogers to throw far more than their game plan will call for. The 49ers have two Pro Bowlers Patrick Willis and NaVarro Bowman and they are the best pair of run defenders in the NFL. The 49ers will establish the run and this sets up play action pass to Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker. Note that I did not mention Crabtree, who has emerged as Kaepernick’s clear cut go to receiver. Because of Crabtree’s emergence, the Packers are forced to use their best cover man, Tramon Williams on him and this will provide ample opportunity for Davis, Walker, and others to stretch the Packers secondary with vertical routes. Take the 49ers. Be sure to check out John Ryan’s expert 2013 NFL Playoffs analysis for the Packers vs. 49ers game. Click Here
Ryan won his 30* Wild Card game of the Year with Baltimore and his 30* Bowl Game of Year with Alabama. He is on strong winning runs in all sports hitting 63% ATS of his last 134 premium 25* Titans. 21-12 ATS in the NFL, 22-14 ATS in the NBA, and 24-13 in CBB. Now that is consistency across the board you can trust!
Week 17 NFL Picks: December 30th 2012
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Green Bay Packers -3
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Green Bay can earn a first round bye with a win here. The Packers defeated the Vikings in 5 straight meetings, including a 23-14 victory on December 2nd. Aaron Rodgers has padded his career numbers vs. Minnesota. This season, the QB has 3930 YP, a 67% CR, and a 35/8 TD/INT ratio. The offense has established a good ground game and will see the return of WR, Nelson. With Christian Ponder tossing 12 INTs, the name of the game is “Give the ball to Peterson.” The RB has a chance at 2000 yards but won’t beat Dickerson’s season record. Remember, Clay Matthews sat out in the first meeting but will be wreaking havoc in this one. The Vikings are good vs. the run but atrocious against the pass. And now must face one of this generations best passers in Rodgers. The Packers are 4-1 ATS their L5 games played vs. the Vikings, 20-8 ATS their L28 games played in December, 4-1 ATS their L5 games played on the road, and 23-8 ATS their L31 games played vs. the NFC North. Take Green Bay. Thank you.
Oakland Raiders vs. Green Bay Packers
Week 14 NFL Pick: Oakland Raiders +12.5 (December 11th 2011)
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Oakland’s 3-game SU and ATS winning streak came to a crashing halt last week in Miami. The Raiders lost that game 34-14 after generating just 304 yards of total offense. But we’re willing to forgive that poor effort by Oakland as they were playing an early start game on the East Coast against the red hot Dolphins who have out-scored their last five opponents by a combined score of 139-54. The Raiders should be much more competitive this week even though they are now facing the undefeated Packers on their home field.
The Raiders are a solid 4-2 SU on the road this season and an even more impressive 5-1 ATS in those games. Oakland has been effective running the football this season averaging 4.6 yards per rush. And that could be the Raiders best defensive weapon in this game, especially since Green Bay’s defense is allowing opponents to rush for 4.9 yards per carry. While the Raiders run defense has not been strong this season, they’ll be facing a Packers team that only averages 3.8 yards per rush. Green Bay is strictly a passing offense, but Oakland’s secondary has been their defensive strength this season. The Raiders are allowing just 6.1 yards per pass attempt, and they’ve held their last seven opponents to 239 passing yards or less.
The huge offensive numbers put-up by Green Bay has done a good job of hiding what has been an inconsistent defense. The Packers are 16th in points allowed (22) and they are next to last in the NFL in total yards allowed (398) and passing yards allowed (292). This will be the seventh time this season in which Green Bay is a double digit favorite; the Packers are just 3-3 ATS in those games. Green Bay’s defense has allowed 409 yards or more in six of their last seven games, and since we expect Oakland to run with success, we see some tremendous value in taking the big points with a rushing underdog. -Steve Merril