Houston vs. SMU
Betting Prediction: SMU +5 -110 odds (October 18th 2012)
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The SMU Mustangs are the right play as Thursday’s free pick over the Houston Cougars. Houston has taken a big step back this season, and it is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers on the road here.

The Cougars opened 0-3, but have responded by winning three straight. However, those three wins came against Rice, North Texas and UAB, and not one was a true road game. This will only be Houston’s second true road game of the season. It lost at UCLA 6-37 in the other.

SMU has played an extremely difficult schedule this season with the likes of Baylor, Texas A&M and TCU on its resume. It has also played two road games at UTEP and Tulane, and it’s lone cupcake game resulted in a 52-0 blowout over Stephen F Austin.

The Mustangs are certainly battle-tested coming into this one. They did lose at Tulane 26-27 on a last-second touchdown last week, but there’s a very good chance they were looking ahead to this contest with Houston. They are hungry to put an end to their six-game losing streak in this series.

This play falls into a system that is 47-18 (72.3%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SMU) – in conference games, off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 10 or more. Bet SMU Thursday.

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LA Tech vs. Houston
College Football Betting Pick: Louisiana Tech -3 (September 8th 2012)
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You better fade overrated Houston while you have the chance early in the season. This is a soft line, and I’m certainly willing to lay the points after what I saw out of the Cougars last week. With just 12 starters back, the loss of the school’s all-time leading passer Case Keenum (19,217 career passing yards), his top three receivers, and head coach Kevin Sumlin, it was clear that Houston was going to be in rebuilding mode heading into 2012. That was very evident last weekend. Houston lost at home to Texas State 13-30 despite being a 34.5-point favorite. They missed the cover by a whopping 51.5 points! Houston allowed 444 total yards to Texas State, and Cougars’ starting QB David Piland was awful, completing 17 of 44 passes for 211 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Louisiana Tech won eight games last season, and four of their five losses came to Southern Miss (17-19), Houston (34-35), Mississippi State (20-26 OT) and TCU (24-31) all by 7 points or less. This was clearly one of the most underrated teams in the country last year, and with 13 starters and 46 lettermen back, the Bulldogs are flying under the radar again in 2012. The Bulldogs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Louisiana Tech is 10-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Bulldogs are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games. Take Louisiana Tech and lay the points.

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Tulane vs. Houston
Betting Prediction: Over 74 points -110 odds (November 10th 2011)
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Houston has played to the over in 6 of 9 games this season. Each time it has finished under the total, it has followed it up by finishing over the number in its next game. In fact, Houston is 11-3 over all-time under coach Sumlin following 1 or more consecutive unders. We’ve seen an average of 79.1 total points scored in this situation.

These teams combined for 65 points in last season’s matchup, but keep in mind that Case Keenum did not play in that game as he was out with a season-ending knee injury. With Keenum slinging the pigskin, the Cougars are the top scoring team in the country with 52.7 points per game. They have combined with their opponents to average 76.1 total points per game on the season. With this in mind, I feel we’re getting some line value at 74, especially since Houston and its foes have combined for an average of 89 points in its last 3 contests. We’ll take the over.

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