Houston vs. SMU
Betting Prediction: SMU +5 -110 odds (October 18th 2012)
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The SMU Mustangs are the right play as Thursday’s free pick over the Houston Cougars. Houston has taken a big step back this season, and it is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers on the road here.
The Cougars opened 0-3, but have responded by winning three straight. However, those three wins came against Rice, North Texas and UAB, and not one was a true road game. This will only be Houston’s second true road game of the season. It lost at UCLA 6-37 in the other.
SMU has played an extremely difficult schedule this season with the likes of Baylor, Texas A&M and TCU on its resume. It has also played two road games at UTEP and Tulane, and it’s lone cupcake game resulted in a 52-0 blowout over Stephen F Austin.
The Mustangs are certainly battle-tested coming into this one. They did lose at Tulane 26-27 on a last-second touchdown last week, but there’s a very good chance they were looking ahead to this contest with Houston. They are hungry to put an end to their six-game losing streak in this series.
This play falls into a system that is 47-18 (72.3%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SMU) – in conference games, off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 10 or more. Bet SMU Thursday.
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