Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts (December 9th 2012)
Week 14 NFL Picks: Indianapolis Colts -5
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The Indianapolis Colts have a lot to play for the rest of the way as they are at 8-4 right now and currently the No. 5 seed in the AFC. The Tennessee Titans don’t have much to play for considering they are just 4-8 on the season, and even if they were to win out they have little to no chance of making the playoffs.

Indianapolis has been at its best at home this season. It is 5-1 straight up and 5-1 ATS inside of Lucas Oil Stadium this year. Its defense has been very tough at home, allowing just 19.2 points and 334 total yards per game. Tennessee is 2-4 straight up and 2-4 against the spread on the road.

What many people don’t realize is that the Colts have one of the top offenses in the league. They rank 3rd in the NFL in total offense at 392.1 yards per game. Andrew Luck and company should have their way with a Tennessee defense that gives up 29.9 points per game. The Titans rank 27th in total defense as well, giving up 386.3 yards per game.

I know the Colts only won by a final of 19-13 in overtime at Tennessee in their first meeting, but that game was more of a blowout than the final score would indicate. Indianapolis outgained the Titans 457-339 for the game while moving the football at will. I look for the Colts to take advantage of their scoring opportunities at lot more often this time around.

This play falls into a system that is 41-13 (75.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) – after scoring 14 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game.

The Titans are 1-9 ATS vs. AFC South opponents over the last 2 seasons. Tennessee is 0-6 ATS revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 December games. Bet the Colts Sunday.

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Week 12 NFL Picks: November 25th 2012
Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: Indianapolis -3
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The Colts have clearly played their best football at home this season. They are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS at home this year. They have won four of their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the road against the New England Patriots last week.

Buffalo has really struggled on the road, going 2-4 straight up and 3-3 against the spread. It has scored an average of 19.0 points per game while giving up 30.2 points per game in those contests. As you can see, it is getting outscored by an average of 11.2 points per game away from home.

What most people don’t realize about Indianapolis is the fact that it has one of the top offenses in the NFL. It ranks an astonishing 4th in the league in total offense at 393.4 yards per game. Andrew Luck and company should have their way with a soft Buffalo stop unit that ranks 27th in the league in total defense at 387.4 yards per game.

This play falls into a system that is 40-16 (71.4%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet against any team (BUFFALO) – a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after scoring 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games.

The Bills are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win. Buffalo is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game. The Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 home games. Bet the Colts Sunday.

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Week 11 NFL Picks: November 18th 2012
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts +9.5
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The books have set this number above a touchdown because they realize that not too many bettors believe that the Colts are for real. However, Indianapolis just keeps proving its doubters wrong and I believe they will once again this weekend. Plus, they are playing for a head coach that has cancer, so you know this team is going to leave everything they have on the field each Sunday.

Indianapolis went into New England last year as a 20-point underdog and nearly pulled off the upset, falling by a final of 24-31. The Colts didn’t have Andrew Luck last year, and now they do. It certainly appears that he is going to be the next Peyton Manning with what he’s done so far in his rookie season. The Colts rank 8th in the league in passing offense at 277.9 yards/game.

When you look at the numbers, it’s hard to argue against the Colts being a legitimate 6-3 team. They rank 5th in the league in total offense at 387.3 yards per game, and a respectable 18th in total defense at 350.6 yards per game. They are outgaining opponents by an average of 36.7 yards/game, which is the sign of a quality squad.

The Patriots haven’t really been that dominant at home this season. They have lost to the Arizona Cardinals, and all three of their wins came by 10 points or fewer, including two by 6 points or less to the Jets and Bills. If the Cardinals, Jets and Bills took the Patriots down to the wire at Gillette Stadium, the Colts should be able to as well.

The Colts are 13-3 ATS vs. awful passing defenses – allowing 260 or more passing yards/game since 1992. New England ranks 29th in the league against the pass at 285.3 yards/game allowed. Indianapolis is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. a team with a winning record. The underdog is 13-3-2 ATS in the last 18 meetings. Bet the Colts Sunday.