Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts (December 9th 2012)
Week 14 NFL Picks: Indianapolis Colts -5
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The Indianapolis Colts have a lot to play for the rest of the way as they are at 8-4 right now and currently the No. 5 seed in the AFC. The Tennessee Titans don’t have much to play for considering they are just 4-8 on the season, and even if they were to win out they have little to no chance of making the playoffs.
Indianapolis has been at its best at home this season. It is 5-1 straight up and 5-1 ATS inside of Lucas Oil Stadium this year. Its defense has been very tough at home, allowing just 19.2 points and 334 total yards per game. Tennessee is 2-4 straight up and 2-4 against the spread on the road.
What many people don’t realize is that the Colts have one of the top offenses in the league. They rank 3rd in the NFL in total offense at 392.1 yards per game. Andrew Luck and company should have their way with a Tennessee defense that gives up 29.9 points per game. The Titans rank 27th in total defense as well, giving up 386.3 yards per game.
I know the Colts only won by a final of 19-13 in overtime at Tennessee in their first meeting, but that game was more of a blowout than the final score would indicate. Indianapolis outgained the Titans 457-339 for the game while moving the football at will. I look for the Colts to take advantage of their scoring opportunities at lot more often this time around.
This play falls into a system that is 41-13 (75.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) – after scoring 14 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game.
The Titans are 1-9 ATS vs. AFC South opponents over the last 2 seasons. Tennessee is 0-6 ATS revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 December games. Bet the Colts Sunday.
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