LSU vs. West Virginia
Pick: West Virginia +5.5 -110 odds (September 24th 2011)
The 16th-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers will look to pull off the upset when they host the second-ranked LSU Tigers at Mountaineer Field on Saturday, but I’m convinced the Tigers are going to win and cash in for college football bettors everywhere in this matchup. LSU is coming off an impressive 19-6 win against Mississippi State on Sept. 15 and cashed in as a 3.5-point road favorite to move to 2-1 ATS so far this season. West Virginia picked up a thrilling 37-31 win against Maryland on Saturday to cover the spread as a 1-point road favorite, to cash in for the first time this season after starting off the 2011 regular season with a pair of ATS losses. The Mountaineers will be looking to extract some revenge for last season’s narrow 20-14 home loss to the Tigers and I believe they will somehow find a way to cover the spread in this matchup while really pushing the Tigers hard for the outright win. West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith has been playing out of his mind in throwing seven TD passes and just one interception so far and would appear to have the upper hand on LSU’s Jarrett Lee and backup Paul Millard. The Mountaineers have posted a scorching 8-2 ATS mark in their L/10 games against a team with winning record while LSU has gone 2-5 ATS in its L/5 road games as a favorite. I like the West Virginia Mountaineers to improve on their perfect 4-0 ATS mark in their last four games as an underdog. Get more college football picks from our experts at Touthouse.com
LSU vs. West Virginia
Prediction: West Virginia +6.5 (September 24th 2011)
West Virginia played LSU to a 6-point game on the road last season. That Mountaineer squad wasn’t nearly as explosive offensively as this year’s squad. Dana Holgorsen’s Oklahoma State offense took college football by storm last season, and I expect him to have a similar impact with the Mountaineers. LSU’s defense is top-notch, but West Virginia won’t give up its 18-game home winning streak in non-conference tilts without a fight. LSU will have to put some points on the board to cover this number, and that won’t be easy against a team that ranked No. 3 in the country in both total and scoring defense last season with 261.1 yards and 13.5 points allowed per game. The Mountain Men will force LSU’s Jarrett Lee to beat them through the air, and I don’t think he has it in him. Under Les Miles, LSU has never defeated an opponent ATS that is averaging 37 or more points per game. It is 0-8 ATS against these teams, losing to them by an average score of 29.0 to 26.1. Also, the Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. We’ll take the points as WVU keeps this one closer than the odds makers think.
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