Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns
Week 6 NFL Pick: Cleveland Browns +7.5 (October 16th 2011)
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In what was considered a very inspired effort last week in Houston, the Raiders won for owner Al Davis who passed away the day before. Not to take anything away from the victory but Oakland was rather fortunate as it was outgained by 195 total yards in the winning effort. It was the fourth time in five games that the Raiders have been outgained and on the season they are getting outgained by an average of 40.8 ppg. They are not going to win many games with that production and after last week, this spells letdown.

The Browns entered their bye week with a 2-2 record but they have not played all that bad. They lost their last game against Tennessee despite outgaining the Titans by 84 total yards. They were in position to cut the lead down in the third quarter but Tennessee returned an interception 97 yards for a touchdown and the 14-point swing did them in. Surprisingly this is the first game that Cleveland has been tabbed as an underdog and it is a rather big number for the Browns to be getting coming off a bye week.

The Cleveland offense has been very inconsistent to start the season. Running back Peyton Hillis has been nowhere near as productive as last season and people are speculating it is because of his contract issues. He was ill for a while and missed the third game but came back against Tennessee and averaged 4.6 ypc in a limited 10 carries. He is back to full strength and should have his breakout game here as the Raiders are allowing 122.2 ypg and 5.2 ypc, the latter being fourth worst in the NFL.

As far as the passing game, Colt McCoy has just a 78.7 passer rating but he could be in store for a big game as well. Matt Schaub lit Oakland up for 416 yards through the air last week, with much of that production distributed to his tight ends. The Browns receivers match up well as they are big and physical and if McCoy is rolling out of the pocket, he is at his best. Cleveland’s defense is allowing over 100 ypg less than the Raiders defense so don’t expect the Oakland offense to have big games like they have had recently.

The Raiders are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite while the Browns are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog between 3.5 and 10 points. Also, Cleveland falls into a great contrarian situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a loss by 14 or more points and are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg against on offense going up against teams averaging 27 or more ppg. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) since 1983. 3* (217) Cleveland Browns. Get more winning NFL picks from Matt Fargo at Touthouse.com.

Georgia Tech vs. Virginia
College Football Pick: Virginia +7.5 (October 15th 2011)
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Matt starts his NCAA Week Seven with a patented Thursday Heavy Hitter! Fargo WON with Oregon last Thursday and he is fired up for another strong win this week between USC and California featured on ESPN! Join him on Thursday for this MONSTER report that is backed by a PERFECT 7-0 ATS (100%) Team Angle! You will be glad you did! Watch and Win once again with Fargo!

Georgia Tech is off to a perfect 6-0 start and with these undefeated records come overvalued lines and that is the case here. The Yellow Jackets covered their first three games before an unfortunate push against NC State and then a spread loss last week against Maryland. Despite this, the public continues to hammer Georgia Tech as over 80 percent of the early action has come in on the road team. Sharp money has offset this though as this line has not moved since opening.

Virginia has played better than its 3-2 record indicates as it has yet to lose the yardage battle and realistically, both of its losses could have been wins. The Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS this season, which gives value as trend players want no part of this record. However, it is a strong contrarian play to go against that as contrarian moves usually mean undervalued situations and this is one of those here. The Cavaliers have had two weeks to prepare for the Georgia Tech option attack which is huge when facing these schemes.

The Cavaliers have taken a different approach to preparing for the Yellow Jackets offense as they have been practicing without a football. “You never know who’s going to get the football in this offense,” Virginia defensive end Billy Schautz said. “So, we want to tackle everybody, every option, take ‘em to the ground. It’s helped us out a lot.” The key to stopping the offense, or at least slowing it down, is to focus on responsibility and not overreact to where the ball is thought to be going.

Virginia needs to keep its own offense on the field to keep the Yellow Jackets offense off the field. Maryland did a good job of that last week and it paid off as Georgia Tech was held to a season low 21 points. Virginia has won the time of possession battle through its first five games of the season, holding the ball an average of 32:42 to 27:18 for opponents. The key though is to remain aggressive on offense as the same time because Virginia needs to get its own offense moving as well.

Georgia Tech is 6-0 for the first time since 1966 which is a major accomplishment for sure. Virginia has had some very average seasons over the last few years but it has held its own against the Yellow Jackets, winning five of the last eight meetings. The Cavaliers have a realistic shot to get bowl eligible, but they may need an upset or two along the way and this is certainly a good opportunity to grab one of those. The Cavaliers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog between 3.5 and 10 points. 3* (124) Virginia Cavaliers. Get more college football picks from Matt Fargo at Touthouse.com.

Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
Week 1 Expert NFL Pick: Tampa Bay Bucs -1 (September 11th 2011)

Detroit is once again the “it” team as the Lions are being praised as the next big thing. To their credit, they very well could be but we have not seen it yet and the lines should not be reflecting it. Detroit finished last season with four straight wins to end the season, all by a touchdown or less, and then went 4-0 this preseason. A thumping of the Patriots on national television in Week Three certainly caught the attention of the public and we have seen this line drop four points since opening.

Because the Lions are the talk of the town, many seem to be forgetting that the Tampa Bay Buccaneer had a very solid season a year ago. They were one of just 13 teams that won at least 10 games and they were one of two teams, along with the New York Giants, that failed to make the playoffs despite double-digit wins. The Buccaneers play in a tough division with the Saints and Falcons so they are not getting the same praise as the others. This team will once again be good and this line is not reflecting that.

According to Jay Kornegay who is the vice president of race and sports operations at the Las Vegas Hilton, the public is all over the Lions as far as going over their win total. “It’s almost 4-to-1 in ratio as far as more people betting the over than the under”, he said. “I can’t say we’re going to be Lions fans this year.” He also noted that they are ranked sixth in Super Bowl betting popularity and they have gone from 25-1 to 12-1 to win the NFC championship. This without playing a meaningful game.

The Buccaneers missed the playoffs by just a game last season and they can thank the Lions for that. They won three of their final four games and the one loss in that stretch came against Detroit at home in overtime. “We definitely had a bad taste in our mouths after that game,” said defensive tackle Roy Miller. “It just carried over to this year. But in the back of our mind, we remember the game so it will be something to remember when we walk on field.”

The fact that the Lions had dropped an NFL-record 26 consecutive road games before rallying behind third-string quarterback Drew Stanton to win 23-20 in overtime made the loss even more difficult to swallow. Detroit is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as an underdog of three points or less while the Buccaneers are 3-1-1 ATS in their five games as a favorite of the same parameters. Tampa Bay was favored by 3.5 points in that meeting last season and not enough has changed to make this line this much shorter. 3* (456) Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Get more expert’s NFL picks from Matt Fargo at Touthouse.com

Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
MLB Baseball Pick: Detroit Tigers -134 odds (August 17th 2011)
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Detroit bounced back with a win last night following a series opening loss and it looks to take the series tonight. Brad Penny has been as inconsistent as they come and he is in the midst of a rough stretch where he has allowed at least four runs in four straight starts. This is a good opportunity to right the ship as he returns home where he has been solid for the most part, posting a 3.98 ERA in 13 starts, eight of which have been quality outings. He looks for redemption following two non-quality outings against the Twins.

Minnesota sends Carl Pavano to the hill and he has been nearly as inconsistent this season as well. He is coming off consecutive quality outings against the White Sox and Indians but this is the time to fade that run. He has been pretty bad on the road overall, posting a 5.77 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 14 starts with only half of those resulting in quality efforts. He got torched by Detroit last time out and the Twins are 2-11 in his last 13 starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 3* (922) Detroit Tigers

 Matt bounced back as expected with a winning 2-1 night and he rides the momentum into Wednesday! He is a SIZZLING 68-43 L111 MLB sides and a MASSIVE 97-58 L155 MLB side plays! Wednesday brings another MAMMOTH card as he has bundled THREE plays into another POWERFUL pack! He is a COMMANDING 36-15 in his 51 MLB 3-Packs this year! Do not miss out on his value package!