Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
NFL Pick: Miami Dolphins +10 -110 odds (December 24th 2011)
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The Patriots beat the Dolphins 38-24 clear back in their season opener, but this isn’t the same Miami team the Pats saw in September. The Phins have rebounded from an 0-7 start to win 5 of their last 7 games straight up and 7 of their last 8 games against the spread.

With the playoffs not being an option for the Dolphins, they will treat this game as their Super Bowl. With that kind of commitment to this contest, I expect them to give New England a game.

The key to Miami’s turnaround has been its running attack. Reggie Bush, who ranks sixth in the AFC with 973 rushing yards, is a big reason why the Dolphins rank seventh in the NFL with 127.4 rushing yards per game. He has averaged 135.3 rushing yards the last three weeks and could be poised for a big day against a New England defense ranked dead last in the NFL with 414.4 yards allowed per contest.

The Dolphins have averaged 190.7 rushing yards over their last three games and the Patriots have given up an average of 211 rushing yards in their last two games. If Miami is able to run the football, which I fully expect they will, it will be able to control the clock. The less time the New England offense spends on the field, the less time it will have to score.

Miami is 5-2 ATS in road games this season, 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 road games and 23-6 ATS in its last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Dolphins are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record.

The road team has covered the spread in 7 of the last 9 meetings in this series, and I expect this trend to continue Saturday.

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Oakland Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins
NFL Pick Week 13: Miami Dolphins -3 (December 4th 2011)
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The Oakland Raiders (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS, 6-5 O/U) and Miami Dolphins (3-8 SU, 5-5-1 ATS, 1-9-1 O/U) have both been playing excellent football for the better part of the last month. The Raiders have won three straight games, including their solid 25-20 win over Chicago as a 2.5-point home favorite in Week 12 that helped them improve to 3-0 ATS over the span and 5-2 SU and ATS over their L/7 games overall. Miami fought really hard the last time out, but had its modest three-game winning streak snapped by losing to Dallas 20-19 on Thanksgiving Day despite cashing in against the NFL betting line as a 7-point road underdog to move to a perfect 5-0 ATS over their L/5 games.

Analysis: I know a lot of football fans are high on the Raiders because of the way they’ve been playing recently, but I feel the same way about Miami coming into this contest and really like the Fins to give the Raiders fits en route to an SU win and ATS payday. First and foremost, Miami’s Matt Moore has been better this season than Oakland’s Carson Palmer and the statistics bear that out with Moore throwing eight TD passes and just four interceptions and Palmer countering with six TD strikes and eight picks. More importantly, Miami’s defense has been playing like a unit possessed. The Dolphins have not allowed more than 20 points in six straight games and I believe they’ll do the same to the Raiders in this matchup of former perennial AFC powerhouses. Miami is 4-0 ATS in their L/4 games against a team with a winning record while Oakland has gone 3-7-1 ATS in their L/11 games as a road dog of 3-points or less. The popular pick may be for the Raiders, but I like Miami to get ‘er done in this one! Get more NFL Picks for week 13 on December 4th 2011 at Touthouse.com

Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins
Thanksgiving Day NFL Pick: Dallas Cowboys -7 (November 24th 2011)
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The “hot” Miami Dolphins (3-7) travel to Dallas to face off with the unpredictable Dallas Cowboys (6-4). Dallas traditionally plays on Thanksgiving Day and usually I look forward to their Thanksgiving Day game. That holds true again this year. The Dolphins are coming into this game “red hot” having won 3 in a row after losing their first 7 games. I’m interested to see why they are only a TD dog in this one. Does Tony Sparano still coach the team? Is Matt Moore the starting quarterback? Sure, they have won three in a row. They defeated KC, Washington, and a reeling Buffalo ball club. That isn’t exactly a list of dominant NFL teams. This is a great spot to fade the Dolphins as they are getting way too much respect in this one. Dallas has the better offense and the better defense. Dallas is playing at home and they have found a running game. Romo has played better as of late and Dez Bryant is emerging as a superstar. Their play calling has been much better lately as well. That is due in large part to the emergence of DeMarco Murray at running back. The defense has to respect the run and that has made Dallas’ play-action game very successful. They have a balanced attack and that is something you couldn’t say early in the season. Dallas wins by more than 10 at home on Thanksgiving Day. Make sure you get on my one and only premium play today. It’s my NCAAB Bookmaker Blunder and it’s a VERY LARGE play. I am currently the #1 College Basketball handicapper and I have an EASY WINNER for you today. Have a great holiday with your family! -Mike Davis (Touthouse.com)