Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls
Game 4 Pick: Chicago +7.5 point spread (May 13th 2013)
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The Bulls have now lost two straight in the series and have failed to cover the spread in both games. There’s no doubt the public will be on the Heat in Game 4, which is of importance here. Oddsmakers are well aware of the public and yet the current line on this game is a full point less than what we saw Miami favored in Game 3.
In my opinion, that’s a pretty good indication that they feel like the Bulls will keep this game close. I couldn’t agree more. Chicago is clearly the team with more to play for, as the series is all but over if they lose this game. I’m taking the points as insurance, but I like the Bulls chances of winning this game outright!
The Bulls have been in this situation before and delivered. Chicago is an impressive 13-4 ATS this season off a home loss, a solid 24-10 ATS over their last 34 games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. BET THE BULLS!
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Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls
Game 3 Betting Pick: Chicago +7.5 (May 10th 2013)
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You won’t find the Bulls as a 7.5 point spread home underdog very often and that kind of value is just too much to pass up today. Chicago’s defense has held opponents to 91.6 points per game when they are on their home court. While Miami may be the best team in the league, 12 of their 17 losses this season have come on the road. I am not saying the Bulls will win this game, but they should certainly not have a problem keeping this game closer than the 7.5 points they are receiving.
This matchup falls into a system to play against road favorites like Miami when they have covered 4 or more of their last 6 games and they are winning 75% or more of their games this season playing a team that has a winning record. This system is 100-54 (65%) ATS. The fact that Miami beat Chicago so easily in game two of this series has inflated this line much higher than it should be. The Heat shot 60% from the field in that game which is extremely unlikely to take place again, especially since they will be on the road today.
NBA Picks: April 5th 2013
Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats +5.5
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This game means absolutely nothing to the Heat, but for the Bobcats it could be one of the highlights of the season in front of the home fans. Even though LeBron and Wade are unlikely to play here tonight – and Mario Chalmers is also likely out – that won’t change the fact that this team beat the World Champs, and it will give them something to hang their hats on heading into the offseason. We aren’t saying bet the moneyline here or anything, after all, the Heat still have a nice lineup even with the roster subtractions tonight. However, we just don’t see any motivation here for the road team, and this is a Charlotte team that most teams overlook anyways and just figure the game will be a “gimmie”. There is just a huge motivational edge for the Bobcats tonight. And, guess what? The Bobcats have been playing pretty good at home lately. They are 5-1 in their last six, with the only loss coming by one point against Detroit. This team has some very loyal fans, and the team would love nothing more than to give them a win against Miami as the season winds down. And two weeks ago the LeBron James version of this team beat Charlotte by 30+ in South Beach, and that should add to the motivation for the home team tonight. Get ALL of Doc’s Sports NBA picks for April 5th 2013 by visiting our expert sports picks page above!
NBA Picks: April 2nd 2013
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
Prediction: New York Knicks +7.5
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The New York Knicks have a lot to play for the rest of the way as they sit just 0.5 games behind Indiana for the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. They want home-court advantage through the first two rounds, and they are playing like it.
New York has won eight straight games heading into this showdown with the Miami Heat. It has also gone a superb 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games overall. This is a team that has saved its best basketball for last.
While the Knicks have a ton to play for, the Heat do not. In fact, Miami already has the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference wrapped up. Sure, it still wants to lock up home-court advantage throughout by finishing with a better record than the Western Conference’s No. 1 seed, but that’s not a priority.
The Knicks come into this game with a lot of confidence because of how well they have played the Heat this season. In fact, they have won two of the three meetings thus far, winning 104-84 at home on November 2nd, and 112-92 on the road on December 6th. Their lone loss came by a final of 99-93 on March 3rd after blowing a 59-45 halftime lead.
New York is 23-6 ATS after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games since 1996. The Knicks are 10-1 ATS after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are 1-9 ATS in home games after playing a road game this season. Worse yet, Miami is 0-7 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. Bet the Knicks Tuesday.
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