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Posts Tagged ‘Miami Marlins’

MLB Pick: Lay the Lumber with Miami -150 over San Diego on Friday, August 25th 2017

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins
MLB Prediction: Miami -150 odds (August 25th 2017)

The set-up: The Miami Marlins fell seven games below .500 (53-60) after dropping three of four at Washington from Aug. 7-10. However, a surprising sweep of Colorado jump-started a 10-3 run over their last three contests. Miami followed up its three-game sweep of the Rockies by taking seven of 10 from a trio of the NL’s worst teams, the Giants, Mets and Phillies. Thursday’s wild 9-8 victory over the Phillies (Miami hit three of its four HRs after falling behind 8-3 in the fourth inning) kept them 5 1/2 games behind the Rockies for the NL’s second wild card spot). The Marlins now face another sub-.500 team in the 57-70 Padres, who took the rubber match of their three-game series with St. Louis on Thursday, allowing Miami to move within one-half game of one of the two teams (the Cardinals) it has to leapfrog in order to make a run at Colorado.

The pitching matchup: Friday’s game features two left-handers, San Diego’s Travis Wood (3-4 & 5.81 ERA) and Miami’s Adam Conley (6-5 & 4.93 ERA). Wood turned in his best start in five tries as a Padre in a win over Washington on Saturday, allowing only an unearned run on three hits and two walks in seven innings. The 2013 All-Star has taken a liking to Petco Park this season (3-0, 1.96 ERA in four outings – including three starts) but is 0-4 with a 7.19 ERA away from San Diego. Wood is 1-3 with a 7.92 ERA in 10 career appearances (four starts / teams are 1-3) versus the Marlins. Conley struck out a career-high 11 on Sunday, allowing only a solo HR among the three hits he allowed over seven innings in a win against the Mets. He has worked at least six innings in five of his seven trips to the mound since his mid-July promotion, lasting at least seven innings three times. Conley settled for a no-decision at San Diego on April 21 despite permitting one run in six innings in his lone career start against the Marlins.

The pick: Wood’s road woes are real (in his two most recent road games, he allowed 10 runs, nine earned, over 10 innings) and facing Giancarlo Stanton can’t be something he’s looking forward to. San Diego’s 24-40 road record (allowing 5.56 RPG) is also something that has to give the suddenly surging Marlins some extra confidence. Can we fully trust Conley at home (7.52 ERA and 1,58 WHIP)? Maybe not but Stanton and Co. should provide enough ‘insurance’ to make a small play on the Marlins.

Nationals vs. Marlins MLB Betting Pick from Dave Price: August 1st 2017

Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins
MLB Betting Pick: Nationals -1.5 runs -125 odds (August 1st 2017)

I believe it’s a safe bet that the Washington Nationals will win by 2 runs or more against the Miami Marlins Tuesday night.  Ace Max Scherzer gets the ball and he’s 12-5 with a 2.23 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 21 starts, and 8-2 with a 1.81 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 12 road starts this year.  Chris O’Grady makes just his 5th start of the season after going 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 4 starts for the Marlins.  Scherzer is 6-3 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 11 lifetime starts vs. Miami.  The Nationals are 23-6 in Scherzer’s last 29 starts vs. NL East opponents.  Washington is 24-5 in Scherzer’s last 29 road starts off a win, outscoring foes by 2.5 RPG in this spot.  Take Washington on the Run Line.

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Reds vs. Marlins MLB Odds & Betting Pick from Teddy Covers: July 27th 2017

Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins
MLB Betting Pick: Miami -127 odds (July 27th 2017)

The Cincinnati Reds are a dead nuts ‘bet-against’ team right now, a hopeless squad that has thrown in the towel on the 2017 campaign.  Cinci opened the second half with a 2-8 homestand.  They’ve gone 0-3 since hitting the highway, losing all three games in non-competitive fashion, by multi-run margins.

Quotes like this one from manager Bryan Price don’t inspire much confidence from this bettor – his entire focus is on evaluating talent for next year, not winning games this year: “These last 10 weeks are very important because I think we have to have a vision of what our starting rotation is going to look like in 2018, but we have to have that vision in 2017. I think it’s going to be very difficult to come in and say, talk about, being really competitive if the vision isn’t — if we don’t know what 2018 is going to look like, at least from the outset.”

The Reds pitching staff is in shambles, bad news against a Marlins team that just pounded out a season high 22 runs last night in Texas.  The Reds starters have combined to rank dead last in MLB in innings pitched, ERA and FIP.  As a result, their bullpen is completely gassed, throwing gas on fires instead of putting them out.  And Price is trying to stretch out his starters, leaving them in games where a strong bullpen would have their collective backs.

Robert Stephenson’s first start of the season came last week, against the same Marlins lineup he’ll face today.  It wasn’t pretty, as he allowed eight hits, two walks and five earned runs in 5.1 innings of work, taking the loss in the process.  In nine big league starts over the past two years, Stephenson has recorded an out in the sixth inning only once.  Like many young pitchers, he’s been awful on the highway, with a 10.97 ERA away from home; an easy ‘fade’ on the highway tonight.

The betting markets aren’t particularly enamored with Marlins starter Chris O’Grady – hence the cheap price to support Miami this evening.  O’Grady is no ace in the making, but he’s allowed three runs in each of his first three big league starts, keeping his team in the game.  Cinci’s lineup isn’t hitting right now, producing four runs or less ten times in 13 games since the Break.  Price: “We don’t have anybody who’s on fire.  We haven’t gotten to our power in the second half, which had been our strength in terms of driving the ball for extra-base hits.”  Take the Marlins.

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