Michigan Wolverines vs. Florida State Seminoles – 8:00pm ET December 30th 2016
Point Spread: The Michigan Wolverines are a 7 point favorite over the Florida State Seminoles in the 2016 Capital One Orange Bowl. The over/under for this game is 51 points. (Note: total opened at 56.5)
Public Perception: 51% of the betting public are wagering on the Wolverines to cover the point spread against the Seminoles. 51% also believe that this game will go over the posted total of 51 points.
Recent Performance: Michigan ended on a 8-2 winning streak for this season, losing their last game of the season in overtime to Ohio State by a score of 27-30. Florida State won their last 4 games of the year decisively with wins over Florida (31-13), Syracuse (45-14), BC (45-7) and NC State 24-20. The last time these two team played was all the way back in 1991. FSU was a 2.5 point underdog and beat MICH by a score of 51-31. The total for that game was 47 points.
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Side Betting Trends: Florida State is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win. Florida State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Florida State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Florida State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Michigan is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Michigan is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
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Over/Under Betting Trends: Over is 4-0 in Wolverines last 4 non-conference games. Over is 4-0 in Wolverines last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Over is 11-2 in Wolverines last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 8-2 in Wolverines last 10 neutral site games.
Head-to-Head Betting Trends: None Available
Betting Pick: Florida State +7
Over-Under Pick: Over 51 points
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines
Football Betting Pick: Wisconsin +10.5 points (October 1st 2016)
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I like this play with the Badgers as they got a relaxing win over Michigan State last week that nobody is taking seriously considering the way Notre Dame looked. Wisconsin is a solid team all around and this game is going to come down to whether or not Michigan can score through the air. Wisconsin is super solid defending the run having only allowed 1 rushing TD and they have kept all 4 opponents under their season average for rushing yards per carry. Meanwhile Michigan has been pretty inconsistent running the ball which raises some red flags for me. Michigan vs. Colorado rushed for just 4.10 ypc while Colorado has allowed 4.28 on the season. Michigan vs. UCF, Wolverines averaged just 2.90 ypc and UCF is allowing 3.88 on the season. Hawaii game was a little different as they rushed for 7.85 and Hawaii is allowing 6.36 so they are pretty bad. Hawaii had a dreadful travel spot playing in Sydney, Australia, back to Hawaii (30 hours of travel time), and then another 30 hours of travel time to Michigan all in an 8 day span. Penn State is awful this year and we saw it against Pitt when the Panthers ran all over Michigan. My point is I don’t think Michigan’s rushing offense is top 25 and you can bet Wisconsin’s run defense is in the top 25 having proven themselves vs. LSU and Michigan State.
When Michigan can’t run the ball they struggle. There were 3 games when they did not have a rushing TD a year ago and they went 1-2. Their lone win against Indiana they did not cover the spread, and when you look at their game against Michigan State they averaged 1.88 ypc and lost as well. Wisconsin does not give up the big play, and I can’t rely on Wilton Speight to score TD’s in the red zone which is what will have to happen in this one for them to cover 10.5 points. Wisconsin has only allowed 2 passing TD’s and they have 6 interceptions.
This is going to be a very good game with two of the top 30 teams in yards per play allowed and plays per game allowed. This game should be shortened quite a bit and I’m getting 10.5 points with a very low total of 44.5 which is intriguing. If Wisconsin was not in a bad spot following Michigan State and with Ohio State on deck I would absolutely make this a more confident play, but at the end of the day I am still very confident. I really liked what I saw from QB Alex Hornibrook on the road last week against the Spartans. This kid is very calm cool and collected. He throws an accurate ball and has poise. I just do not really see a lot that separates these two teams at this point and Michigan typically carries an inflated number because of their brand.
Central Florida Knights vs. Michigan Wolverines – 12:00pm ET September 10th 2016
Point Spread: The Michigan Wolverines are a 35.5 point favorite over the Central Florida Knights. The over/under for this game is 52.5 points (Note: total opened up at 56 points)
Public Perception: 73% of the wagering public are betting that the Wolverines will cover the point spread over the Knights. 73% believe this game will go over the posted betting total of 52.5 points.
Past Meetings: There are no past games played between these two teams.
Side Betting Trends: Michigan is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Michigan is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Michigan is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Michigan is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Central Florida is 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Central Florida is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Central Florida is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Central Florida is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
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Over/Under Betting Trends: The over is 9-0 in Wolverines last 9 games overall. The over is 5-0 in Wolverines last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The over is 4-0 in Wolverines last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. The over is 6-0 in Wolverines last 6 games following a straight up win. The over is 3-1-1 in Knights last 5 road games. The over is 3-1-1 in Knights last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. The over is 6-2 in Knights last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-2-1 in Knights last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Head-to-Head Betting Trends: No Trends available.
- Michigan looked like a solid BCS Championship contender as they crushed Hawaii by a score of 63-3 last week.
- Wolverines Linebacker Mike McCray should be too much to handle for QB Justin Holman of Central Florida, who struggled offensively last week.
Betting Pick: Michigan Wolverines -35.5
Over-Under Pick: Over 52.5 points