Kentucky vs. North Carolina
NCAA Tournament Over-Under Pick: Under 161 points -110 odds (March 26th 2017)
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This is one of the highest totals of the 2017 NCAA Tournament. The previous high was the 167.5-point total between UCLA and Kentucky last round in which we saw 161 combined points and the UNDER cashing. I think the value is with the UNDER in this game as well.
The betting public is infatuated with the 103-100 game these teams played back in December. But that was a complete aberration as there was no defense played whatsoever. I like the fact that both teams are familiar with each other having already played once this year. I also think this one will be played much closer to the vest with what’s at stake, and it won’t just be a run-and-gun type of game like the first meeting.
The reason Kentucky has made it this far and finished the regular season strong is because it is one of the most improved defensive teams in the country. The Wildcats have won 14 straight coming in, and the UNDER is 12-1 in their last 13 games overall. It’s not a coincidence as they haven’t allowed more than 77 points in any of their last 13 games, and they’ve given up 70 or fewer in 10 of those.
UNC is 10-1 UNDER when revenging a loss vs opponent over the past two seasons. Kentucky is 8-1 UNDER in all NCAA Tournament games over the past three seasons. The UNDER is 7-0 in Wildcats last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 9-2-1 in Tar Heels last 11 games following a win. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
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North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils
College Basketball Pick: NC +2.5 points (February 9th 2017)
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Most are going to see Duke as a very short home favorite and jump on the Blue Devils, but my money in on the Tar Heels in this one. This rivalry hasn’t exactly been good to the home team. In fact, the road team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings with the underdog covering in 6 of the last 8. I know Duke has started playing better of late, but they aren’t playing anywhere close to what we expected to see from this team. North Carolina is 9-2 in the ACC and I don’t think there’s any question they are playing the better basketball over the last month. My biggest concern with Duke is their inability to get stops, as they are allowing opponents to shoot 47.4% from the field in conference play, where they are just 3-7 ATS. Give me North Carolina +2.5!
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Syracuse vs. North Carolina
College Basketball Point Spread Pick: Syracuse +13.5 (February 29th 2016)
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North Carolina comes into this game off a 74-79 loss at Virginia on Saturday. Most are going to expect the Tar Heels to rebound in a big way, as this will be their final home game of the season. I believe the oddsmakers have over-adjusted this line because of that and thus created big time value on the Orange.
Syracuse was able to put an end to a two-game skid with a 75-66 home win over NC State on Saturday and are a very respectable 9-3 over their last 12 games. I don’t think there’s any question the Orange are going to come out extremely motivated against an elite team like the Tar Heels. Syracuse will also be out for revenge from a 11-point home loss back on 1/9.
The key here is that this is a tough spot for the Tar Heels. They invested a lot into that game against Virginia and regardless of this being their final home game, they are going to have a difficult time not looking ahead to Saturday’s showdown at Duke, who they just recently lost to at home 73-74.
North Carolina is just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 conference home games, and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games overall against a team with a winning record. Tar Heels are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU loss and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after 15+ games against a strong defensive team that is holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Take the points!
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