North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils
College Basketball Pick: NC +2.5 points (February 9th 2017)
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Most are going to see Duke as a very short home favorite and jump on the Blue Devils, but my money in on the Tar Heels in this one. This rivalry hasn’t exactly been good to the home team. In fact, the road team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings with the underdog covering in 6 of the last 8. I know Duke has started playing better of late, but they aren’t playing anywhere close to what we expected to see from this team. North Carolina is 9-2 in the ACC and I don’t think there’s any question they are playing the better basketball over the last month. My biggest concern with Duke is their inability to get stops, as they are allowing opponents to shoot 47.4% from the field in conference play, where they are just 3-7 ATS. Give me North Carolina +2.5!
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Syracuse vs. North Carolina
College Basketball Point Spread Pick: Syracuse +13.5 (February 29th 2016)
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North Carolina comes into this game off a 74-79 loss at Virginia on Saturday. Most are going to expect the Tar Heels to rebound in a big way, as this will be their final home game of the season. I believe the oddsmakers have over-adjusted this line because of that and thus created big time value on the Orange.
Syracuse was able to put an end to a two-game skid with a 75-66 home win over NC State on Saturday and are a very respectable 9-3 over their last 12 games. I don’t think there’s any question the Orange are going to come out extremely motivated against an elite team like the Tar Heels. Syracuse will also be out for revenge from a 11-point home loss back on 1/9.
The key here is that this is a tough spot for the Tar Heels. They invested a lot into that game against Virginia and regardless of this being their final home game, they are going to have a difficult time not looking ahead to Saturday’s showdown at Duke, who they just recently lost to at home 73-74.
North Carolina is just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 conference home games, and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games overall against a team with a winning record. Tar Heels are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU loss and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after 15+ games against a strong defensive team that is holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Take the points!
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North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Basketball Betting Pick: NC +4 -110 odds (February 27th 2016)
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The Virginia Cavaliers will put their perfect 13-0 home record to the test on Saturday, but they face a North Carolina team that will be their toughest opponent to date. This game features one of the nation’s best offensive teams versus one of the top defensive teams in the country. My money is on the visitors as the underdog.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History – The Tar Heels have won six of the last 10 meetings in this series, and half of those wins came at Virginia. They beat the Cavs 71-67 in Virginia last year, and I expect a similar result here this time around.
2. Tar Heels Scoring – North Carolina has scored an average of over 80 points on better than 50 percent shooting over their last five games. The Cavs on the other hand have averaged just 65.4 points over their last five. They might have more success against a North Carolina team that allows opponents to average almost 75 points on the road.
3. X-Factor – North Carolina is hitting over 78 percent from the free throw line over it’s last five games.
Selection: This is a play on the North Carolina Tar Heels (Free)