Ball State vs. Northern Illinois
Betting Prediction: Under 72 points -110 odds (November 15th 2011)
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I believe this total is inflated Tuesday, therefore I’ll side with the UNDER between Ball State and Northern Illinois. There have been some ridiculously high-scoring games in the MAC of late, which has prompted odds makers to set the numbers far too high. The betting public has been pounding the OVERS, including this one.
This line opened at 70.5 and has been bet up to 72.5 in most places. Northern Illinois was part of one of those really high-scoring games two weeks ago when they won at Toledo 63-60. But they came back down to earth last week, winning 45-14 at Bowling Green in a game that went UNDER the number.
Unlike Toledo, Ball State is not an elite offensive team. The Cardinals are scoring 23.8 points/game while averaging 376.2 total yards/game. In 10 games this season, Ball State and their opponents have combined to score more than 72 points just once. That’s a 9-1 (90%) system pertaining to tonight’s total set.
With so much at stake tonight, I look for defense to be a priority. Northern Illinois sits in a first-place tie with Toledo atop the MAC West division, while Ball State trails both teams by only one game. The UNDER is 15-7-1 in Cardinals last 23 road games. The UNDER is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 Tuesday games. The UNDER is 19-6-1 in Huskies last 26 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. -Jack Jones (Touthouse.com)