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Posts Tagged ‘Ohio Bobcats’

Ohio vs. Northern Illinois Football Prediction: Jack Jones betting the Bobcats +13.5 points

Jack Jones - College Football PickOhio Bobcats vs. Northern Illinois Huskies
Betting Prediction: Ohio +13.5 (November 24th 2015)

Northern Illinois certainly has a lot to play for here. A win would put it in the MAC Championship Game for a sixth consecutive season. But I believe that fact has the Huskies overvalued here as 13.5-point favorites. Asking them to win by two touchdowns to cover against this surging Ohio team is asking too much.

The Bobcats have been playing great coming in. They beat Kent State 27-0 and outgained the Golden Flashes by 256 yards in the process. Then they racked up 607 total yards in a 48-31 home win over Ball State, outgaining the Cardinals by 186 yards.

Many will look at the Bobcats’ losses to Bowling Green (24-62) and Buffalo (17-41) in their previous two games and think they can’t hang with Northern Illinois. But a closer look at the box score of those games shows they were not that big of blowouts.

They were only outgianed by 38 yards against Bowling Green, and they actually outgained Buffalo by 49 yards. But they were -6 in turnover differential in those two games. They didn’t commit a turnover in either of their last two games, and they’ve committed one or fewer turnovers in eight of their 11 games this season, so it was an aberration.

I think the Huskies are also overvalued here because they have been making the betting public a lot of money here of late. They are 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall. There’s no question that oddsmakers have been forced to shade this line towards the Huskies because they know the betting public is going to continue to back them. You may even get +14 by the time this game goes off on Tuesday.

One thing that really stands out to me is how tough Ohio has played Northern Illinois in recent meetings. Indeed, the Bobcats are 5-3 straight up in their last eight meetings. They are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five meetings. Their three losses in the last eight meetings have come by 7, 3 and 7 points. That includes a 14-21 home loss to the Huskies last season in which the Bobcats outgained them 344-325.

The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Bobcats are 5-1 ATS intheir last six games following a win. The Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Ohio Tuesday.

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Northern Illinois vs. Ohio Betting Pick from Jack Jones: November 18th 2014

Jack Jones - College Football PickNorthern Illinois Huskies vs. Ohio Bobcats
Betting Pick: Ohio +3 (November 18th 2014)

Both teams have a lot to play for coming into this one. Northern Illinois (8-2) is trying to win the MAC West as it’s currently in a three-way tie for first place. Ohio (5-5) needs one more win to become bowl eligible. So, both teams will be highly motivated for a victory Tuesday night.

I just believe Ohio is showing solid value as a 3-point home dog to Northern Illinois with the way it has been playing of late. It has won two of its last three games overall with its lone loss coming at Western Michigan, which is 5-1 within the MAC and battling NIU for first place in the West.

The Bobcats have a huge scheduling advantage in this one as they will be coming in on two weeks’ rest, while the Huskies played last Tuesday in a grueling 27-24 home win over Toledo. That extra preparation should pay big dividends for the Bobcats as they look to stop this solid NIU offense.

The Huskies have been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season. That has been evident by the fact that they have gone 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. They lost 14-52 at Arkansas as a 13.5-point dog, beat Kent State 17-14 as a 25-point home favorite, lost to Central Michigan 17-34 as an 8-point home favorite, beat Miami Ohio 51-41 as a 13.5-point home favorite, and beat Eastern Michigan 28-17 as an 18-point road favorite during this stretch.

I really like what I saw from Ohio in its last game against Buffalo. It beat down the Bulls 37-14 as a 4-point home favorite, limiting them to just 134 yards of total offense while forcing four turnovers. That’s the same Buffalo team that is coming off a 55-24 home win over Akron last week.

While NIU has a solid offense, its defense is extremely suspect this year. Indeed, it is giving up 25.5 points and 400.0 yards per game against opponents that are only averaging 21.1 points and 354 yards per game offensively. It is allowing 4.4 points and 46 yards per game more than its opponents average on the season.

Ohio has been the better defensive team this year. It is allowing 25.6 points and 408.9 yards per game against opponents who average 28.2 points and 420 yards per game. It is holding its opponents to 2.6 points and 11 yards per game less than their season averages.

The key to this game for Ohio will be stopping the run as NIU averages 262 yards on the ground compared to just 190 yards through the air. It is equipped to do just that. The Bobcats are only allowing 135 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry against teams that average 161 yards per game and 4.4 per carry on the ground this year.

Ohio is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 7.0 points per game. Plays against road favorites (N ILLINOIS) – excellent offensive team (>=440 YPG) against an average offensive team (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Ohio is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better. Bet Ohio Tuesday.

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