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Posts Tagged ‘Ohio State Buckeyes’

College Football Pick: Schule betting the Spartans +16.5 points on November 11th 2017

Michigan State Spartans vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
College Football Pick: MSU +16.5 (November 11th 2017)
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The Buckeyes loss to Iowa last week effectively ends any realistic hope that they will return to the College Football Playoffs. They try to pick up the pieces this week, hosting rivals Michigan State. The Spartans are now 5-1 in the BIG10, and the winner of this game is likely heading to the BIG10 Championship Game. The bookmakers still have the Buckeyes favored to win this game by three scores, but I don’t see any evidence to justify that line. After giving up a combined 93 points in their last two games, I think the Buckeyes defense has been exposed. In their previous seven games, they had played just two teams with a .500 or better record. One of those was a 31-16 home loss to Oklahoma, and the other was a 38-7 win over Army. In a total of four games versus teams .500 or better, they are 2-2 but have been outscored 131-117. History tells us that these two teams have been rather evenly matched over the last decade. In six games since 2011, not one of those games was decided by more than 12 points. Four of those six games were decided by three points or less, including a 17-16 Buckeyes win at East Lansing last year. Ohio State was a 20 point favorite in that game, and they lost outright as a 14.5 point home favorite the year before. There is no doubt in my mind that this is an inflated spread, and I’ll take the points.

Will Rogers betting OSU -30 points over Maryland on October 7th 2017

Maryland Terrapins vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Point Spread Pick: OSU -30 (October 7th 2017)
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The set-up: Ohio State (4-1, 2-0 in Big Ten) will host Maryland (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten) at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio on Saturday. Urban Meyer leads his No. 10 Buckeyes against one of his former assistants for the second week in row, this time around it’s D.J. Durkin. This is Durkin’s second season at Maryland and the Terps opened the season with a win a shocking 51-41 win Texas (+18) and have also added a 31-24 road win at Minnesota last Saturday (as a two-TD dog), to open Big Ten play. Maryland doesn’t appear to be as over-matched as the 6-7 team that was clobbered 62-3 by Ohio State last year. Ohio State is trying to put its 31-16 home loss to Oklahoma behind them, in an effort to climb back into the CFP discussion. Dominating wins over Army, UNLV and Rutgers don’t hurt the Buckeyes’ chances but also don’t help all that much, either.

Maryland: The Terrapins rebounded from a surprising home loss to Central Florida by winning 31-24 at Minnesota last week to open its Big Ten slate. However, let’s note that UCF is 3-0 and currently ranked 25th in the latest AP poll. Sophomore Max Bortenschlager completed 18-of-28 passes for 154 yards and two TDs plus also ran for a score against Minnesota in his first start after the Terrapins’ top two quarterbacks, Kasim Hill and Tyrrell Pigrome, went down with season-ending knee injuries. RB Ty Johnson has 411 rushing yards on 8.9 YPC with four TDs, leading a ground game that averages 233.5 YPG (24th) on 5.7 YPC with 12 scores. Defensively, Maryland is allowing 30.0 PPG (92nd) and will be severely tested by an Ohio State offense which has scored 148 points over the last three games since the loss to Oklahoma!

Ohio State: J.T. Barrett ‘laid an egg’ against Oklahoma but has comlalted 71.2 percent for 765 yards with 10 TDs (no INTs over 73 attempts) , while adding 125 rushing yards and another TD in OSU’s three-game winning streak. Freshman RB Dobbins has 573 yards (7.6 YPC) and three TDs on the season, leading a ground game accounting for 241.0 YPG (20th). The defense is holding opponents to 160.0 YPG (16) on 335.6 YPG (34th).

The pick: Barrett has been outstanding the last three games and on the season, has 13 TD passes spread around over nine different players. Freshman J.K. Dobbins has been terrific and now Mike Weber, who ran for 1069 yards last year on 6.0 YP is back, running  for three scores against Rutgers after struggling with hamstring issues. The Ohio State defense has allowed fewer than 100 passing yards in each of the last three games, after averaging 403 in the team’s first two. With all due respect to Bortenschlager, he is the team’s third-team QB. I’ll note that Ohio State is just 6-12 its last 18 laying more than 21 points but Meyer’s Ohio State teams have a 17-1 SU record in October since 2012. He’s shown no mercy against ex-assistant Chris Ash, beating Rutgers 56-0 and 54-0. He took Durkin’s Maryland team ‘to the woodshed’ last year (62-3) and I’ll lay the points, here.