Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
MLB Prediction: Tampa Bay +143 odds (August 22nd 2016)
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In winning SEVEN of its last eight games, Tampa Bay has averaged 7.9 runs…My free play is on the TB Rays at 7:10 ET.
The set-up: The Boston Red Sox will cap an 11-game road trip with four games at Tampa Bay Monday thru Thursday. Boston owns a 69-54 record, which has them a half-game behind the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East, while also currently holding down the No. 1 spot in the AL wild card spot. As for the Rays, their role the remainder of the season can be nothing more than that of a playoff ‘spoiler.’ Tampa Bay does come in with seven wins in its last eight games, giving them an 18-16 record since the break. However, it’s a little difficult to overlook the team’s 52-70 mark on the year.
David Price (11-8, 4.19 ERA) will take the mound in a very familiar spot tonight, Tropicana Field. He was drafted first overall in the 2007 MLB Draft by the Rays but was traded back in 2014 to the Tigers. The Tigers then sent him to the Blue Jays last season, with the 2012 Cy Young winner signing a seven-year, $217 million FA contract with the Red Sox before the start of the 2016 season. Price has hardly delivered as hoped in 2016, with just 11 wins in 26 starts. Boston is 13-13 in those starts, losing $841 vs the moneyline at $100/game. Blake Snell (4-5, 3.06 ERA) gets the nod for the Rays but takes the mound having not completed six innings in any of his last four starts.
However, Snell also takes the mound having allowed two ERs or less in his previous seven starts and note that in winning SEVEN of its last eight games, Tampa Bay has averaged 7.9 runs. I’m jumping on this VERY live home dog!
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
MLB Pick: Tampa Bay -112 odds (August 20th 2016)
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Odorizzi owns a 1.66 ERA & a 33-7 KW ratio in six starts since the break…My free play is on the TB Rays at 6:10 ET.
The 73-50 Texas Rangers won 6-2 last night at Tampa and the three-game series continues with a 6:10 ET start on Saturday. The 56-70 Rays own the AL’s second-worst record (only the Twins are worse) plus rank dead last among all 30 teams in the moneyline standings (minus-$2625). Yes, Texas leads the AL West by seven games and is easily MLB’s best moneyline team (the Rangers’ $2745 mark is more than $1600 higher than the 2nd-place Tigers) but Saturday’s pitching matchup is the great equalizer in this contest.
A.J. Griffin (5-2, 4.68 ERA) of Texas squares off tonight against Tampa’s Jake Odorizzi (7-5, 3.72 ERA). When A.J. Griffin won his 2016 season debut 7-3 (back on April 8), it marked his first victory in more than two years, after recovering from Tommy John surgery. Griffin (formerly of Oakland) opened the season well but he was placed on the DL with right shoulder stiffness back on May 8 and didn’t get back on a big league mound until June 25. His ERA was 2.93 at the end of June but it sits at 4.68 now, after posting a 5.85 ERA in July and a 7.41 ERA in August. Meanwhile, Tampa’s Jake Odorizzi has been one of the best pitchers in the American League since the All-Star break. He’s 4-0 with a 1.66 ERA in six starts (Rays are 4-2), posting a 33-7 KW ratio.
No decisions have been a ‘cross to bear’ for Odorizzi in 2016, as he owns 13 of them in his 25 starts this season (Rays are 6-7 in his no decisions). That said, Odorizzi has pitched as well as anyone since the break, while Griffin ‘limps’ in off back-to-back ‘ugly’ efforts (allowed 11 ERs on 18 hits over just 11.1 innings for an 8.74 ERA), part of a seven-week slide. Let’s back Odorizi and the Rays in this one.
San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays
MLB Prediction: Padres +159 odds (August 15th 2016)
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MLB 50* Game of the Year goes Monday. Ryan is 7-3 w/ 50* MLB releases this season. These 50* plays are the strongest possible grading produced by his proven money making SIM Algorithm. The report includes a remarkable RL system + outlines how best to add this to your betting wager.
10* graded play on San Diego as they take on Tampa Bay in inter-league MLB action set to start at 7:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SD will win this game.
Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tampa Bay is just 12-30 (-19.5 Units) against the money line facing a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB’s/start) this season; 16-29 (-17.7 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season; 28-40 (-19.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. SD is a solid 27-21 (+18.1 Units) against the money line after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
MLB Pick: Rays -114 odds (August 12th 2016)
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The New York Yankees’ Alex Rodriguez is scheduled to play his final game in pinstripes on Friday, but I think the Tampa Bay Rays will spoil the party in the Bronx.
Chris Archer (6-15, 4.26 ERA) has pitched well lately with a 2.94 ERA through his last five starts. He’s held Rodriguez to a pair of hits in 15 at bats and he’s 5-3 with a 2.13 ERA in 11 career starts against New York, including a 3-1 with a 2.18 ERA at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees turn to CC Sabathia (6-9, 4.18) who has struggled lately. The veteran left-hander is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in his last five starts and he allowed three runs on nine hits and three walks in just 4 2/3 innings at Tampa Bay back in April. Sabathia is just 1-6 with a 4.82 ERA in nine starts home in New York this season.
Evan Longoria (26-for-67, six homers, 14 RBIs) and Logan Forsythe (8-for-18, two homers) are only two of many Rays with good success against Sabathia. The current Tampa Bay team is batting a combined .329 over 161 at bats versus him, and I think they’ll give Sabathia plenty to work with tonight.
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