Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
MLB Pick: Baltimore +1.5 -159 odds (May 19th 2013)
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The Rays have taken the first two games of this series in a pair of slugfests. I look for things to settle down considerably on Sunday as we have a fine pitching matchup between Matt Moore and Chris Tillman. I’ll grab the insurance run with the Orioles as they aim to avoid the sweep.

It’s not as if the Rays were on fire heading into this series, having dropped back-to-back games at home against the Red Sox. They’ve been an inconsistent offensive club for much of the season, and I don’t expect that to change now. Off a pair of explosive games at the dish, look for them to show some regression on Sunday afternoon.

Rays starter Matt Moore has posted a perfect 8-0 team record in his first eight starts this season – a stark contrast to what we saw from him early in last year’s campaign. He hasn’t exactly been dominating the opposition lately, however, as he’s issued 10 walks and allowed four home runs in his last three starts, spanning 16 innings of work. He was on the hill for a 6-2 win here in Baltimore earlier this season, but had lost his previous two outings at Camden Yards – both coming last season.

Chris Tillman will counter for the Orioles. He’s quietly enjoyed a fine start to the 2013 season, having gone 3-1 with a 3.40 ERA. It’s easy to forget that this was a guy that went 9-3 with a sub-3.00 ERA a year ago. Over Tillman’s last five starts, he’s allowed only seven earned runs in 33 2/3 innings pitched. While he’s come up empty in his last two starts against the Rays, the Orioles are still 2-1 in his last three outings against them here in Baltimore.

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The Orioles bullpen has been shaky lately, a big reason why I’m willing to lay the extra juice to get an insurance run on Sunday afternoon. With that being said, it’s not as if the Rays ‘pen has been lights out, posting a collective 4.05 ERA on the road this season. Look for a tight game all the way, with the O’s doing whatever they can to avoid the sweep. Take Baltimore +1.5 runs (1*).

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals
MLB Pick: Under 7 -110 odds (April 30th 2013)
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We have two great pitchers taking the mound in today’s game featuring the Rays and Royals. For Tampa Bay the start has been given to Alex Cobb who has a 1.82 ERA and 1.045 WHIP this season. Cobb is also averaging 7.4 innings per start. For the Royals James Shields will take the mound. Shields has 32 strikeouts in 5 games and brings with him a 3.09 ERA on the season.

Neither one of these teams is batting well this season and going against these two stud pitchers means this should be a very low scoring game. Tampa Bay is batting .225 on the road this season while the Royals are at .245 in their last 7 games. Those averages translate to 3.8 runs per game for Tampa Bay while the Royals average just 3.7 runs per game at home. With the lack of offensive production and both teams having solid pitchers starting we have a low scoring game in the making.

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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox
MLB Betting Pick: White Sox -141 odds (April 26th 2013)
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The Chicago White Sox are worth the price Friday as a medium-sized home favorite over the Tampa Bay Rays. With the edge they have on the mound in this one, I have no problem pulling the trigger on the Sox tonight.

Jake Peavy has picked up right where he left off last season. The former Cy Young winner is 2-1 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.145 WHIP through four starts this year. He has allowed just two earned runs over 14 innings in his last two starts.

Roberto Hernandez, formerly known as Fausto Carmona, is clearly washed up. He is 1-3 with a 4.74 ERA through four starts this season, including 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA in two road starts. Hernandez has posted a 5.60 ERA in 16 career starts against Chicago.

This play falls into a system that is 86-28 (75.4%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (TAMPA BAY) – with an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season (AL). Bet the White Sox Friday.

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Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
MLB Pick: Tampa Bay -113 odds (April 4th 2013)
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Free MLB Pick from Doc’s Sports Take #964 Tampa Bay Rays over Baltimore Orioles (Thursday, 3:10pm ET) What the Baltimore Orioles did in 2012 was nothing short of amazing. No one expected that they could win 93 games and nearly knock off the Yankees in the playoffs. It was a great accomplishment, but it also came with great fortune. Baltimore was an unprecedented 29-9 in one run games last season and were 16-2 in extra-inning games. Several players had career years and the bullpen was lights out from innings 7 thru 9. It’s simply too much to ask for all of those things to go right again for the O’s, so some regression is in order for the 2013 season. The question is how much. Baltimore didn’t make any significant offseason moves, which was shocking given the team’s finances and urge to turn the franchise around. This was an 80-win team on paper last year, so with no major adds, you can’t expect them to be any better than that in 2013. The Tampa Bay Rays have quietly been one of the most successful organizations in baseball for the last five years. Once again they have built a squad that is projected to go to the playoffs, and a major reason is their excellent pitching. Today they’ll give the ball to newcomer Roberto Hernandez (previously Fausto Carmona). No one thought that Hernandez could crack the Rays rotation with all of their talented arms, but the fact that he earned a spot tells you something. This guy can still pitch – and pitch effectively in the big leagues. Joe Maddon has been raving about him ever since he laid eyes on Hernandez in Spring Training and the Rays think he can have a huge year. He’ll go up against Miguel Gonzalez of the Orioles today. Gonzalez overachieved in his rookie season last year posting a 3.25 ERA with a low strikeout rate. I expect a sophomore slump for the 28-year old righty, and the Rays should be able to get to him today. Take Tampa here.