Georgia Bulldogs vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Football Betting Pick: Tennessee +3 (October 10th 2015)
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Georgia comes into this game beat up physically and demoralized after losing to Alabama last week. That was a game that the school really wanted to win. Now, they have to travel to Knoxville to face a Tennessee Vols team that is in dire need of a win and with a bye week on deck, they will be fully focused on this game.
The Vols come into this game only 2-3 on the season. They have had a double digit lead in all three of their losses (vs. Oklahoma, Florida, and Arkansas). So this is a team that is VERY close to being 5-0, but instead is 2-3. If they were 5-0, then the Vols would be at least a 3 point favorite here. But instead, we are catching them getting points at home getting great value. Butch Jones is 3-1 ATS as a homedog with the Vols.
Looking at last year’s game, the Vols almost upset Georgia on the road losing 35-32. This is a much improved Vols team this season from when that game was played last year in Week 4. Worley was the QB for the Vols at the time. Joshua Dobbs gives the Vols much more flexibility and chances to make explosive plays with his legs. Also the Vols offensive line is a lot better. Through 5 games, the Vols have only allowed 10 sacks. At this time last year, the quarterback was getting clobbered at a record pace.
Georgia was +16 in turnover margin last year. It is hard to duplicate such success 2 years in a row. This season they are -even- in turnover margin.
The Georgia quarterback Grayson Lambert is making only his 2nd career road start in the SEC. His first was @ Vandy a few weeks ago and Georgia won 31-14, but Lambert was only 11-for-21 for 116 yards. Against Alabama last week, Lambert was 10-for-24 for 86 yards only. He best games this season were vs. Southern, Louisiana Monroe, and South Carolina. Point being Lambert is not ready to step up vs. stiffer competition. Nick Chubb can’t do it all himself either.
In Georgia’s only road game this season, they beat Vanderbilt, 31-14, but needed a pick 6 and a punt return for a touchdown to beat them. The offense only scored 17 points. Also a terrible Vandy pass offense had 295 yards passing against the Bulldogs defense which is another red flag.
Special teams: The Bulldogs special teams is way down this season. They rank last in the nation in kickoff returns (14 yards per return). They rank 119th in punting at only 32 yards per punt and they also rank 87th and 85th in punt and kickoff coverage. Tennessee is ranked #1 in kickoffs returns and #6 in punting. Big Special Teams advantage for the Vols.
Look for a motivated Tennessee team to come out of town with a cover this Saturday vs. a Georgia team that is beat up and still trying to get over their embarrassing loss to Alabama last week.
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