Baseball Picks: May 19th 2013
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
Prediction: Detroit +107 odds
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After losing two out of the first three games in this series, the Detroit Tigers want a win in Game 4 to square it up. I’ll back them at an excellent price tonight with Doug Fister on the mound.
Fister has been dominant all season, and he deserves more respect from the books as a result. The right-hander is 5-1 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.180 WHIP through eight starts this season. Check out ALL of Jack Jones’ premium MLB picks for May 19th 2013 on our expert sports picks page at Touthouse.com
The Tigers are 37-15 in their last 52 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Detroit is 5-0 in Fister’s last 5 starts with a total set of 9.0 to 10.5. Bet the Tigers Sunday.
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MLB Picks: May 16th 2013
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
Prediction: Detroit Tigers +101 odds
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It’s rare that you get the opportunity to back arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball as an underdog. Well, that is what has been given to us tonight as Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers are a dog to the Texas Rangers Thursday.
I’ll gladly take advantage and back Verlander at his best price of the season. The 2011 AL MVP & Cy Young winner has gone 4-3 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.208 WHIP in 2013. Verlander is also 8-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 13 career starts against Texas.
Yu Darvish has been putting up solid numbers in his own right, but he’s no Verlander. Plus, Darvish has posted a 4.50 ERA in his last three starts. He has also given up seven earned runs over 13 2/3 innings in his last two home starts against Detroit for a 4.61 ERA.
The Tigers are 51-22 in Verlander’s last 73 starts overall. Detroit is 37-14 in its last 51 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Tigers are 65-26 in Verlander’s last 91 starts with 4 days of rest. Detroit is 8-3 in Verlander’s last 11 starts vs. Texas. Bet the Tigers Thursday.
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Texas Rangers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
MLB Prediction: Texas +101 odds (May 8th 2013)
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We won with Milwaukee last night but admittedly, the Brewers were outplayed for eight innings after scoring five runs in the bottom of the first inning against Justin Grimm who eventually settled down. The Rangers fell to 9-9 on the road with the loss but I feel they are in a very good position to get back over .500 on the highway tonight.
Derek Holland takes the mound for Texas and he has been very solid this season. He allowed six runs in 5.2 innings against the Angels which was not a surprise as he has struggled mightily against Los Angeles throughout his career. In his other five starts, he has tossed five quality outings and even with that one blowup, the has a 2.74 ERA and 0.94 WHIP on the season. He has never faced Milwaukee which puts him at an advantage against the Brewers bats. Milwaukee snapped a five-game losing streak with the loss last night and while the offense has been potent at home, the starting pitching has a 5.61 ERA at Miller Park this year. Kyle Lohse hasn’t been horrible there but he does have a 4.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in three home starts including his worst one last time out against his former team the Cardinals. While he has not faced the Rangers much of late, he has a 10.04 ERA in his last seven starts against them including a rough outing in the 2011 World Series. The Rangers are 69-27 in their last 96 games following a loss. Play (977) Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers vs. Chicago Cubs
MLB Pick: Texas -135 odds (May 6th 2013)
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Preview: The Rangers and Cubs will take a mutual off day and make up one of their postponed games on Monday night with Nick Tepesch against Scott Feldman. Tepesch draws the matchup against an atrocious Cubs offense that has posted the third-worst on-base percentage against right handers at a measly .293. The hitter-friendly offensive conditions at Wrigley should not affect Tepesch, who is inducing ground balls at a 56.2% clip, which is well above league average. He has issued just five walks in his 28.2 innings of work and the Cubs are batting just .239 as a team. The Cubs have lost four straight, dropping to 11-20, while the Rangers have won three in a row and are 20-11. Losing an off day shouldn’t be a problem for the Rangers, who know that they’re going to need every win possible, while the Cubs may not come ready to play since they aren’t going to be much of a factor.
Ultimately, this play is a fade of Scott Feldman. His peripheral stats indicate that he cannot last pitching in a hitter-friendly park at Wrigley. He has a 3.34, but that’s mostly smoke and mirrors, with a FIP of 5.09 and a xFIP of 4.30. Both of those numbers signal that regression is imminent. Opposing hitters are batting just .216 off of him, which is well below his career batting average against of .270. Part of that is the league change, but another part of that is a string of luck that is going to run out sooner rather than later. Feldman’s last two starts have come against San Diego and Miami, two very weak offenses. In his three other starts, he has allowed 14 runs in 10 innings with 10 walks and 10 strikeouts. The Rangers are not a weak offense. If you found this Rangers vs. Cubs pick and preview from Bryan Leonard useful, be sure to purchase his premium picks today at Touthouse.com