Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe
Football Pick: Arkansas -7 (November 8th 2012)
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Since losing their conference opener 26-13 at home to Western Kentucky, the Red Wolves have rattled off four consecutive wins over Sun Belt foes. They are 3-1 ATS in these games. Going back to last season, they are on a 9-3 ATS run in conference play.
Arkansas State has won three of its four home games this season, and its last two home wins have come by at least seven points. It has been an all-around solid bet at 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games.
It is also worth noting that the Warhawks are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
The Red Wolves have won two in a row and three of their last four against Louisiana-Monroe. They have won their two home games during this stretch by eight and 14 points, respectively.
Arkansas State won last season’s meeting 24-19 on the road despite a poor performance from quarterback Ryan Aplin, who completed 27 of 43 passes for 261 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions.
I don’t anticipate Aplin playing that poorly again. The senior has completed 65.1 percent of his passes for 2,169 yards with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions this season. He could be poised for a big day throwing the football against a Louisiana-Monroe defense that ranks 104th in the country against the pass with 263.9 yards allowed per game.
Arkansas State is on a 9-2 ATS run versus poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or higher. They have defeated these teams by an average score of 37.4 to 19.9. Lay the points.
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