Georgia Bulldogs vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Betting Pick: Vandy +7 -110 odds (October 19th 2013)
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Vanderbilt is hungry for its first taste of victory in SEC play. It comes in on two weeks’ rest having last played on October 5, so it will certainly be fresh and ready to go in this one. The Commodores handled themselves very well in their first two SEC contests, losing 35-39 to Ole Miss in the closing seconds and rallying for a 25-35 loss at South Carolina. Sure, they were blown out by Missouri 28-51, but they still put up 468 total yards in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate.
The Commodores go up against a Georgia team that is without almost all of its top skill players, which is the biggest reason why the Bulldogs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three games. They needed overtime to beat Tennessee on October 5, and fell 26-41 at home to Missouri last weekend.
The Bulldogs are without their top receiver from last season in Malcolm Mitchell, as well as two of their top three receivers this year in Michael Bennett and Justin Scott-Wesley. All three guys are lost for the season. As is second-string running back Keith Marshall. Also, starting running back Todd Gurley remains questionable with an ankle injury after sitting out last week’s loss to Missouri.
The last time these teams met in Nashville, Vanderbilt played a great game but lost by a final of 28-33 as a 13.5-point underdog. The Commodores were blown out by the Bulldogs last season by a final of 3-48 on the road as everything that could go wrong for them, did. They certainly want revenge from that defeat heading into this one.
This isn’t the same Georgia team that nearly played in the BCS Championship last year, losing to Alabama by the narrowest of margins in the SEC Title game. Realizing that their chances of winning a BCS Championship are all but out the window with two losses already, the Bulldogs may not even show up Saturday. They could easily suffer a hangover from their loss to Missouri last week.
I like what I’ve seen from the offense this season. The Commodores are averaging 33.7 points and 425.0 yards per game to rank 55th in total offense. There are certainly some holes in this Georgia defense, which is allowing 33.7 points per game this season. Austyn Carta-Samuels is completing 66.1 percent of his passes for 1,561 yards with 10 touchdowns and six interceptions, while also rushing for 86 yards and five scores. Jordan Matthews has 47 receptions for 709 yards and five touchdowns.
Vanderbilt is 11-3 against the spread in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. Mark Richt is 2-10 against the number off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival as the coach of Georgia. The Commodores are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games following an ATS loss. Vanderbilt is 13-6 against the number in its last 19 home games. The Bulldogs are 0-6 against the spread in their last six games following a double-digit home loss. Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.
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