Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Pittsburgh +130 odds (May 4th 2013)
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While it may change as the season unfolds, there’s no question that right now, the Pirates are the superior team in this matchup.

Pittsburgh rolls into Saturday’s game having won 10 of its last 14 games. The Nats’ on the other hand have won just five times in their last 13 contests.

Of course, Saturday’s price has everything to do with the fact that Washington is handing the ball to its ace, Stephen Strasburg.

With that being said, Strasburg has been snake-bitten so far this season, and until the Nats’ start giving him some consistent offensive support, I’ll continue to consider him prime fade material at the lofty prices being offered.

Strasburg has actually pitched quite well over his last four outings, but that only leads me to believe we may see some regression on Saturday. And there’s little reason to think the Nats’ would be able to bail him out should that type of storyline unfold.

Washington has scored a grand total of 11 runs in Strasburg’s six starts this season. The Nats’ bats have gone silent lately, producing three runs or less in six straight games.

The Pirates will counter with Jeff Locke. He’s quietly gotten the job done over his last two outings, giving up only five hits over 13 shutout innings. The Buccos won those two contests by a combined 11-0 score, on the road against the Phillies and Cardinals.

But Locke is only part of the equation today. The Pirates have everything clicking right now, having scored 35 runs over their last six games, not to mention their outstanding bullpen, which has posted a collective 1.97 ERA here at home this season. By contrast, the Nats’ ‘pen has recorded a 4.93 ERA on the road.

The Buccos have taken five of the last seven meetings in this series, and should be able to ride their positive wave of momentum to another ‘upset’ win on Saturday afternoon. Take Pittsburgh (1*).

MLB Predictions: May 1st 2013
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Betting Pick: Washington +113 odds
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After getting swept in Detroit, the Braves have responded with two wins to open this series. They have been able to defeat Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez but it does not get any easier for tonight.

Atlanta is now 8-2 at home and hopes to get Paul Maholm back on track after a blowup in his last start. He opened the season with three straight shutout performances covering 20.1 inning and he extended that another five innings in his fourth start before allowing three runs in the sixth inning at Pittsburgh. He did not bounce back from that however as he gave up eight runs on 10 hits in just 3.2 innings at Detroit. How he bounces back here is the question and while heading home is a big edge as his last four starts have all been on the road, facing the Nationals is an issue as he has a 4.91 ERA in 11 career starts. After starting the season 7-2, Washington is now a game under .500 as it has now dropped its last three games. The offense has been completely shut down of late but the pitching has kept things close and Jordan Zimmerman has played a big part in that. He is 4-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over five starts with four of those being quality outings. He has pitched well against Atlanta throughout his career and going back to last season, the Nationals are 8-1 in Zimmermann’s last nine starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. The Braves have owned this series of late but expect Washington to finally break out and pick up a much needed win tonight. Play (907) Washington Nationals. Be sure to take advantage of Matt Fargo’s premium MLB predictions for May 1st 2013 at Touthouse.com

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals
MLB Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -105 odds (April 22nd 2013)
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Dan Haren continues to be a fade candidate for the Nationals as they open up a three-game set against Shelby Miller and the Cardinals. Haren has been terrible in three starts this season, allowing almost two hits per inning and five home runs in 13.1 innings of work. Haren has only issued one walk this season, but he’s finding out the hard way how difficult it is to live in the middle up the plate and up in the zone throwing in the high 80s. Of the balls put in play off of Haren, just 25.9% of them have been ground balls, which indicates a lack of command and a lot of pitches up in the zone. The Cardinals lineup is full of aggressive hitters who are going to take their cuts, which should hurt a pitcher like Haren who is always around the zone. The key guys in the Nationals bullpen have struggled as well and that bullpen could be called upon early if Haren is ineffective.

Shelby Miller has been very impressive in his first three starts, racking up 18 K in 18.1 innings of work. Nationals hitters have not faced Miller and that should work to his advantage because there’s a limited amount of video on him and a catcher like Yadier Molina, who knows the Nationals hitters well, will be ,and has been, a great asset to the young pitcher. One of the big keys for Miller is that he has limited walks and has shown great composure with runners on base.

The Nationals have lost six of their last nine and have struggled offensively over that span. With Miller pitching far better than Haren at this point, getting the Cardinals as a slight dog is a good value for this matchup. Don’t miss out on ALL of Bryan Leonard’s expert MLB picks for April 22nd 2013 at Touthouse.com

PLAY: ST. LOUIS

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MLB Picks: April 7th 2013
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Reds -108 odds
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10* graded MLB pick on the Cincinnati Reds as they take on the Washington nationals set to start at 1:10 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Reds will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-14 mark for 69% winners and has made 22.6 units per one unit wagered since 1997. Play against road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (WASHINGTON) and is a top-level team (>= 62%) playing a good team (54% to 62%), in April games. Here is a second system that has gone 62-31 for 67% winners and has made 31.3 units per one unit wagered since 2007. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CINCINNATI) and is an excellent fielding team averaging <=0.5 errors/game on the season and after a one run loss. The Reds hammered Washington in Game 1, 15-0, and marked my third straight 25* winner for the season. Yesterday, Washington eked out an extra inning one-run win after leading in the game and blowing a save opportunity. Washington is just 6-27 (-18.8 Units) against the money line in road games after a game they hit 4 or more home runs since 1997. Moreover, the Reds are 19-3 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in home games revenging a loss to current opponent as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. It is still early, but I believe one thing is a near certainty. Washington will struggle to find an offense, especially against elite starters like Cueto. In five games, they are batting an anemic .222 with a .297 OBP. The Reds will have a strong offense and are averaging 6.4 RPG through 5 games. Moreover, the Nationals bullpen, who did not allow an ER to the Miami Marlins, has been hammered by the Reds. Strasburg did not allow a run, but only struck out three batters in his seven inning 1-0 win over the Marlins. Cueto allowed three hits and one ER, but struck out nine Angels in a 1-0 no decision team loss. I fully expect Cueto to strikeout at least 10 batters today and with Strasburg still mysteriously on an 80 pitch limit, the Nast will again struggle in the bullpen. Take the Reds.