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Home > College Football Picks > UL Monroe vs. Florida State Football Spread Pick from Will Rogers: December 2nd 2017

UL Monroe vs. Florida State Football Spread Pick from Will Rogers: December 2nd 2017

UL Monroe vs. Florida State
College Football Point Spread Pick: FSU -26.5 (December 2nd 2017)

The set-up: The Florida State Seminoles had canceled their game with the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks scheduled for Sep. 9th, due to Hurricane Irma. At the time, there were no plane to re-schedule but with the likelihood that FSU would not reach six wins (and bowl-eligibilty), FSU reached out to ULM and the NCAA to re-schedule this game on Dec. 2nd (Championship Saturday). So while Clemson and Miami-Fl. will meet in the ACC title game in Charlotte, the 5-6 Seminoles will welcome the 4-7 War Hawks to Doak-Campbell Stadium for a 12:00 ET kick-off. An FSU win will extend the school’s current bowl run (currently, the longest active in the FBS) to 36. The motivation for ULM, is a big “pay day!”

UL-Monroe: The War Hawks enter on a two-game slide, losing last Saturday 67-50 at home to Arkansas State. QB Caleb Evans threw for 454 yards and four TDs (also three INTs) but when one’s defense allows 67 points (on 781 yards!), one usually ends up on the losing side. Evans has thrown for 2,606 yards  (16 TDs & 6 INTs) plus is the team’s second-leading rusher with 554 yards (13 TDs). ULM averages 182.0 YPG on the ground (52nd) and checks in averaging 36.1 PPG (22nd). However, the D allows 40.9 PPG (126th) on 534.6 YPG (129th), which says all one needs to know.

Florida State: Of course, FSU’s season basically ended in its season-opener, when starting QB Francois was lost for the year against Alabama. True freshman Blackman has had his moments but overall, he’s been no better than average. He comes in completing just 56.5% with 14 TDs and nine INTs.It doesn’t help that the rushing games averages only 136.8 YPG (98th) and despite scoring 77 and 38 points in the team’s last two games, FSU takes on ULM averaging a modest 25.3 PPG on the season to rank 89th. However, through a very trying season, the defense has held it together, allowing 23.0 PPG (38th) on 340.4 YPG (27th).

The pick: FSU is playing to extend its bowl streak (see above) but is also dealing with concerns that eighth-year head coach Jimbo Fisher may leave for Texas A&M. I don’t see the Fisher issue being a distraction with the team looking to secure that bowl berth (source of pride for the school). This will be the Seminoles’ first December home game since they hosted Georgia Tech back on Dec. 1, 2001, in a game postponed due to the Sep. 11 terrorist attacks. The Seminoles have averaged 39 points a game in November, up from 18 in September and 17 in October and as noted, face a War Hawks team which just allowed 781 yards at home! Lay it!

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